Saturday, May 23, 2015

Taking No Pigskin Prisoners

Deflategate is already in Bill Belichick's rear view. Tom Brady hasn't missed a workout while dealing with his appeal. It may be true that no one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills but it's clear that nobody compartmentalizes off the field distractions like the Patriots.

This is starting to remind me of 2007. I guess the big question is, who's the Randy Moss of 2015?

 
Not to say the Patriots are just a stud WR1 away from back-to-back Lombardi Trophies. Randy Moss' afro is really just a pigskin emoji representing the scorch the earth, cover the children's eyes, take no pigskin prisoners approach New England took after Spygate. In fact, it probably won't be an outside the numbers/take the top off the defense wide receiver this time. It wouldn't play to Brady's strengths for one thing.

Still, I can help thinking – wishfully, perhaps – that Belichick will make a move that puts the NFL on notice before they take the field against the Steelers to kick off the 2015 season.

Crazy Talk…
How about Adrian Peterson? I know the grumblings of disgruntlement seem to have quelled in recent weeks and I have no idea how the Patriots could make it work from a salary cap perspective but just think about the Patriots in their "12" personnel package with Peterson at running back, Gronk and Scott Chandler at TE and Jules and JoJo split wide.

I'll give you a minute.

If you think Robert Kraft won't sign off on bringing a child abuser to Foxborough, don't forget what just happened at the owner's meetings, what his former BFF Roger Goodell and the other 31 did to him. The Patriots might as well change their helmets from silver to black because they're the bad guys. They're the team that will do anything to win. Own it. Kraft would like nothing more than to give Goodell and the other 31 the finger and Adrian Peterson could be that middle digit.

Peterson would probably rush for 500 yards against the Colts. He might break the single season record for rushing in the Patriots offense. The safeties won't be able to drop down in the box or Gronkowski will beat them over the top. Gronk and Chandler both streaking up the seams, play action or straight up power behind Vollmer and Gronk. They could go heavy with Cameron Fleming as a tackle eligible plus the two tight ends with James Develin at fullback and just hammer the rock with Peterson. Yes, they could throw out of that formation, too.

Peterson would give them a homerun-hitter out of the backfield, a player highly motivated to secure his vindication as a football player and a man and most importantly, Peterson would provide New England a closer who can control the football and keep the clock tick-tick-ticking in the 4th quarter. There's nothing like protecting a 10-point lead by running the ball 14 times and capping that drive with a touchdown.

Okay, I can't imagine what New England could offer that Minnesota would accept (LeGarrette Blount and/or Jonas Gray, Danny Amendola and their 2017 1st round pick?) and no matter how pissed off Robert Kraft is, he's probably not going to sign off on Adrian Peterson putting on a Patriots uniform after having to testify in the Aaron Hernandez trial. As for Belichick, I think the salary cap hit would be too much for his tastes. If that weren't the case, Darrelle Revis would still be in New England.

If we're going crazy sexy big, why not consider an equally unrealistic scenario like Dez Bryant? I know, I just said a stud WR1 wouldn't play to Brady's strengths but Bryant would win enough 50/50 balls to make Brady look like he must've done something illegal to improve his arm strength at age 38. The Patriots can't afford him and the Cowboys won't trade him but if anyone has Moss 2.0 potential, it's Dez Bryant. Would I be willing to part with Chandler Jones or Jamie Collins to get Bryant? You're going to give something good to get something good.

Again, Belichick would need to foreswear his long-held principles when it comes to overpaying for a single player and the impact that has on the cap and his ability to build quality roster depth.

Perhaps they're not principles so much as guidelines?

But Brady Still Needs Weapons, Doesn't He?
The Patriots are pretty well set at wide receiver with Julian Edelman, JoJo LaFell, Amendola (if he isn't part of the package traded to Minnesota for Peterson) and an open mic competition for WR4 between newcomer Brandon Gibson and holdovers Aaron Dobson, Brian Tyms and Josh Boyce. Still, I couldn't help but think about what Anquan Bolden might add to the Patriots passing game. A trade with the rebuilding San Francisco 49ers seems much easier to imagine than the Peterson deal. Amendola or Dobson plus a 3rd round pick in 2016? Dobson and Blount plus a third day pick? Bolden is tough, competitive, still productive and a perfect fit for the Patriots horizontal passing attack.

The Training Camp Yard Sale…
One man's trash is another man's treasure? It seems highly unlikely that a player with Moss-like impact will be cut by another team during training camp but there will be talented players who get cut because of their cap hit or because the new head coach's system doesn't value that player as highly as the previous coaching staff did. Most of the veteran's cut between now and the start of the regular season are more likely depth options at best. Belichick will keep a younger, cheaper option with special teams in mind but what if the long rumored divorce between Chip Kelly and Evan Mathis finally happens? Mathis could provide a Brian Winters-like presence and give rookies Tre' Jackson and Shaq Mason some time to develop while Ryan Wendell/Josh Kline hold down the fort at right guard and Cameron Fleming provides extra beef on the edge in his recurring role as a tackle-eligible.

I know the offensive line isn't the sexy but it makes the sexy possible. An extra half second in the pocket for Brady? A little more space for Blount or Gray (or Tyler Gaffney)? A dominant offensive line could be the key to the 2015 Patriots offense, which will likely need to outscore opponents at least until the defense adjusts to the post-Revis reality.

A Change of Scenery…
Have the Seattle Seahawks really fallen out of love with Bruce Irvin? Would they trade him straight up for Amendola (a perfect complement to newly acquired TE Jimmy Graham)? Irvin would be yet another athletic chess piece for the Patriots front seven and a perfect rush/pass platoon player with recently re-signed thumper Brandon Spikes.

The sum of the parts seems to be the thinking with the front seven; a depth chart filled with athletic multi-position hybrids who can get after the passer and cover the short zones. With free agent Jabaal Sheard and draft pick Trey Flowers, Geneo Grissom and Xzavier Dickson back-stopping Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich, second-year DT Dominique Easley and rookie Malcom Brown providing pressure up the middle and linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower blitzing the A gap, the Patriots seem to have plenty of options. There are also questions about Hightower's and Jerod Mayo's return from injury. Can you have too many athletic, multi-position hybrids?

I think not.

Doing What They Do…
Maybe that catalyzing player is already on the roster. Maybe Aaron Dobson breaks out in 2015 or maybe it's Dominique Easley; maybe Jabaal Sheard rediscovers the form he flashed as a rookie or Sheard's presence helps Chandler Jones play less and produce more. How much better can Jamie Collins play? With his outsized, Paul Bunyanesque personality, it feels like Rob Gronkowski is some mythic creature who's existed since the beginning of pigskin time but he's just 26-years old and hitting his prime. If he's healthy for all 16, is it all that crazy to think he could challenge Moss' single season TD reception record? It doesn't really stretch the bounds of reason, does it?

Okay, an Adrian Peterson or a Dez Bryant coming to New England seems like the longest of long shots. From Bill Belichick's point of view, LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and Tyler Gaffney are cheaper than Peterson and could wind up being just as productive. Aaron Dobson is unlikely to come anywhere close to Bryant's production no matter how well he plays in 2015 but it could be that Brandon Gibson is actually a better fit in the Patriots offense, anyway.

When it comes to the Patriots roster, Bill Belichick never sleeps. There's much more to come between now September 10th. Maybe the Patriots won't be able to dominate like they did in 2007 but to say they're highly motivated to repeat as Super Bowl champions in 2015 certainly qualifies as an understatement. There's a part of me now that wants Goodell to uphold Brady's four game suspension. It leaves a much bigger chip on Brady's shoulder and would serve to galvanize that "us against the world" mentality in the Patriots locker room.

In the spec script I've written for the Patriots 2015 season, they win two of their first four games without Brady. They run the Colts out of their own building in Week 5 as LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and Tyler Gaffney (or Adrian Peterson) rush for 400 yards. The Pats return home to demolish the Jets (scoring 21 of their 55 points in the 4th quarter), Dolphins (again dropping a 50-burger) and R**skins (in a game that should come with a parental warning). The defense grows into its new identity, leading the league in sacks and turnover differential. Brady puts up career best numbers for completion percentage and QBR while passing for over 5,000 yards, 49 TD and just 7 INT. The Patriots run the table, finishing 14-2-0 with home field throughout the playoffs where they continue to dominate, winning the divisional and conference championship games by a combined 87-10 score.

They win the Super Bowl 51-17 as Brady wins his 4th Super Bowl MVP.

How else did you think this movie would end?



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