Sunday, May 3, 2015

Thinking About The Future By Looking At What Happened Yesterday

When all was said and done, it was a classic Bill Belichick draft.


Belichick found great value at pick #32 and took DT Malcom Brown. He took a safety Jordan Richards from Stanford at #64 that was projected to the 6th/7th round by pigskin pundits and bobbleheads. With his 3rd round pick he took DE/OLB/TE Geneo Grissom from Oklahoma. Grissom was projected to the 5th/6th round and his NFL comp (Frank Alexander?) is a guy I never heard of. He drafted long-snapper Joe Cardona from the Naval Academy in the 5th round (just guessing this is the highest a pure long-snapper has ever been drafted) and blind-in-one-eye linebacker/safety tweener Matthew Wells from Mississippi State, a prospect so far off the NFL's radar he didn't even have a draft profile on NFL.com (he does have some highlights on YouTube). I'm guessing blind-in-one-eye may have taken him off of most team's big boards.

Along the way he also picked up plug and play Day 1 starter Tre' Jackson at #111. Jackson played right guard at Florida State and will reunite with fellow Seminole Brian Stork in New England. Belichick also drafted C/G Georgia Tech's Shaq Mason, who is described on his draft profile as a bit undersized (6' 2" and 305 pounds being undersized encourages me to think of myself as svelte) but a dynamo as a run blocker.

There was also a clear focus on pass rush in this draft. Along with Brown and Grissom, Belichick drafted DE/OLB Trey Flowers from Arkansas at #101 and OLB Xzavier Dickson from Alabama at #253, who led the Crimson Tide with 9.5 sacks in 2014. Waiting until the 7th round to take a cornerback, CB Darryl Roberts from Marshall at #247, may be an indication that Belichick thinks more of his depth chart at cornerback than the gridiron cognoscenti or it may be he was simply the best player left on his board. Given the addition of Jabaal Sheard in free agency and the players taken in the draft, it's hard to ignore the obvious. The Patriots are committed to winning by getting after the quarterback rather than relying as much on press-man coverage in 2015.

Malcom Brown and Tre' Jackson look like guys who will get to their second contract. What else do we see coming from the 2015 draft class?

DT Malcom Brown
I think we've seen the last of Joe Vellano. Pluck and grit will only get you so far in the NFL. Brown will probably start as a rotational player with Alan Branch and Sealver Siliga, subbing in on passing downs and growing into a larger role over the course of the season. I'm looking forward to Brown and Dominique Easley lining up inside on 3rd and long, with Jamie Collins showing an A-gap blitz. I'm looking at you, Andrew Luck.

SS Jordan Richards
Buh-bye Tavon Wilson. Or possibly Nate Ebner. Richards will make his mark on special teams and provide injury insurance for Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon. Anything beyond that would be a surprise. As Belichick has often said, we'll see how it goes.

DE/OLB Geneo Grissom
Grissom will press Michael Buchanan and Zach Moore for a spot on the roster. If everything goes to plan with Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard, he won't see many snaps on defense but given his position flexibility and the uncertainty around Dont'a Hightower's and Jerod Mayo's return from injury, Grissom could turn out to be one of the better picks in the 2015 draft. In that context, Grissom may be more of a threat to the roster spots of any linebacker not named Hightower, Mayo or Collins.

DE Trey Flowers
So maybe it's Flowers who will press Buchanan and Moore for a backup role at DE. Maybe. Jake Bequette 2.0? I hope not. 

OG Tre' Jackson
Jackson will have domino effect on the OL depth chart, pushing Ryan Wendell from starter to backup and someone else (Josh Kline? Chris Barker?) to the practice squad or the street. I like a starting offensive line of Nate Solder, Cameron Fleming, Brian Stork, Jackson and Sebastian Vollmer. Wendell and Marcus Cannon would be key reserves.

C/G Shaq Mason
Shall we pencil in Mason's name for that 8th spot on the O-Line depth chart? Mason could threaten Wendell's spot if he shows well in training camp and preseason, allowing New England to keep younger options on the depth chart (select one from the Pu-Pu platter of Josh Kline, Chris Barker, Jordan Devey or Caylin Hauptmann).

LS Joe Cardona
Danny Aiken is a free agent, leaving only Tyler Ott (and Rob Ninkovich) at a key special teams position. If the Navy releases Cardona from his service commitment, he'll be the Patriots long-snapper in 2015. Yes, sometimes all we have is the obvious. It is what it is.

LB Matthew Wells
Matthew Slater can't play forever. Is Google working on a bionic eye?

TE A.J. Derby
My early favorite to suffer an injury in training camp and be stashed on IR for 2015. Have the Patriots fallen out of love with Tim Wright? Are they looking for an upgrade over Michael Hoomanawanui? Derby is so raw his nickname should be sashimi (though Kentucky seems far more obvious). He projects to the Joker role, the straw that stirs the drink in Josh McDaniels offense. (I can dream, can't I?) If he shows a willingness to block and can contribute on special teams he could take Hooman's job.

CB Darryl Roberts
Given both starting cornerback positions are up for grabs combined with Belichick's devotion to the "survival of the fittest" approach to roster building, there's a chance Roberts sticks. On the other hand, the CB position group may not feature any pro bowlers but it is deep. Maybe he shows special teams value as a gunner and kick returner. Maybe he sneaks onto the practice squad.

OLB Xzavier Dickson
Dickson may be a one trick pony but when that one trick is getting after the quarterback it's a pretty good trick. It's fair to say Dickson is a long shot to make the Patriots roster but his playmaking potential is intriguing to say the least. Assuming Hightower and Mayo won't be taking a lot of snaps in camp or preseason games, Dickson could get a chance to show he belongs. We'll see how it goes.

UDFA Notes
It had to be good news for Aaron Dobson, Brian Tyms and newcomer Brandon Gibson that New England didn't draft a wide receiver. Then the Patriots signed undrafted free agent Devin Gardner out of Michigan as their next QB-to-WR conversion project. Unlike Julian Edelman, Gardner actually had some game reps at WR in college and we know how well things worked out with Edelman. At 6' 4" and 220 pounds, Gardner looks like an outside the numbers X. He's only slightly bigger than Dobson and Tyms and not quite as big as TE Tim Wright. Gardner was the big name in this year's UDFA class but there were a couple of other interesting prospects signed by the Pats

Center/Guard David Andrews from Georgia may be a little undersized for Dave DeGuglielmo but he did play against top competition in the SEC and he was a team captain. Terrible 3-Cone Drill time of 8.12. Given my assumptions about football factories like UGA, it's hard to think Andrews will benefit all that much from a year on the Patriots practice squad but, um, did I mention he was a team captain?

Auburn DB Brandon King also comes from the NFL's developmental league and is yet another SS/LB tweener. I get the feeling Belichick is shifting the paradigm when it comes to the next generation of NFL defenses, thinking in terms of configurations that demand these seemingly positionless athletes in 4-2-5, 3-3-4-1, 3-5-1 formations. Not to say Brandon King is the key to this paradigm shift. Just thinking out loud after three cups of coffee.

Could UAB DB Jimmy Jean be this year's Malcolm Butler? Too much to wish for? His draft profile lists him as a free safety so yeah, probably too much to wish for.

Epilog
On the whole, I'm feeling pretty good about Bill Belichick the GM today. No, I'm not going to defend the Jordan Richards pick in the 2nd round or taking blind-in-one-eye Matthew Wells no matter what round he was taken in. On the other hand, if Malcom Brown and Tre' Jackson fulfill their promise as 8-10 year starters and just one or two other players from the 2015 draft turn into 4-6 year contributors as solid backups/special teamers I'd be more than happy.  

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