I'm Looking At You

Despite the usual Belichickian flourishes, the consensus amongst the gridiron cognoscenti is that New England put together a solid 2015 draft class. Undrafted free agents have been signed and while anything can happen in this crazy world, I think what you see today is pretty much what we'll see in September.

 

Yes there are still some interesting free agents available but none of them look like they could help on special teams at this point in their careers so I wouldn't expect any to sign with the Patriots except in case of injury. I'd say the same for trades. Even then, would someone like the much rumored Evan Mathis be willing to re-do his contract to join New England? Remember, it's professional football.

So, WYSIWYG for the 2015 New England Patriots.

And I can hardly wait. I know it's wicked early but here are a few intriguing players I'll be looking at through OTA's, training camp and the preseason…

The Draft Picks – There's always an adjustment as collegians make the step up in competition to the NFL and it's more like two or three steps up when joining an elite franchise like New England with the complex schemes they run on offense and defense. This should temper our excitement to some extent but it's hard not to look forward to seeing how DT Malcolm Brown, OG Tre' Jackson and the rest of the rookie class contribute to the Drive for Five. The more I read about OG Shaq Mason, the more I like him. My wildest wildcard is the playmaker from Alabama, DE/OLB Xzavier Dickson. I have no rational explanation for this comp and it seems much more likely he'll be an early cut in training camp but I'd like to think he has a Terrell Suggs ceiling as a pro, an absolute menace off the edge. Yes, that would be crazy.

As the man said, we'll see how it goes.

RB Tyler Gaffney – After a red-shirt season on injured reserve, is it fair to expect Gaffney to become a workhorse, three-down back in 2015? No, but this is obviously an unfair universe we live in. I like to think Gaffney could become a Robert Smith-type running back but even if that coin in the wishing well does pay off, it'll probably be in 2016. Or 2017. Still, it would be nice to see some flashes of that potential in 2015. Maybe I'm underselling; Gaffney is smart, athletic, and he's had a year with the playbook.

Third Down Back – One man's trash is another man's treasure? You have to wonder why the Saints decided to let Travaris Cadet go. Then again, the Patriots just let Shane Vereen go, so, whatever, I guess. Anyway, while there are questions about Cadet's blitz pick up capabilities, he's entering his prime as a player and could be a serviceable replacement for Vereen.

Despite the rave reviews from practice, James White did little to impress in limited playing time last year. Vereen's departure and Cadet's arrival do little to unwrap the enigma that is James White. Is it a big deal either way? Maybe not. As worst case scenarios go, Brandon Bolden isn't too bad and Bolden is actually a threat to run the ball out of passing formations.

RB LeGarrette Blount – The best case scenario (after his Week 1 suspension is served) would be a poor man's Corey Dillon. With added beef on the offensive line and his sneaky second gear, Blount could be in position for his best year as a pro. That might not mean 1,200 yards primarily because New England prefers the committee approach to the running back position. Projecting his 12 touches per game and 4.7 yards per rush numbers over 16 15 games would total just 846 yards. Oh, wait. I forgot to add 200 yards from the game with the Colts.

Quick Aside: Why so many running backs on my watch list?

I think the Patriots should run the ball more than 50% of their offensive snaps in 2015 – let's say a 55/45 split – for a number of reasons. I usually don't advocate for taking the ball out of the team's best player's hands and Tom Brady is far from done but it couldn't hurt to manage his pitch count and minimize the number of hits he'll take. Brady is also great out of play-action so a steady dose of Blount & Company only makes that more part of his game more effective. Perhaps most importantly, a good running game should translate into more time of possession and keep the defense rested and fresh.

WR Aaron Dobson – Dobson reminds me of my 3rd grade report card, upon which my teacher wrote "Fails to work up to ability." (How did she know?) Stories of Dobson's off-season commitment to avoid becoming the latest name added to the list titled "Bill Belichick's Top 10 Worst Draft Picks" are reassuring, as is the fact the Patriots didn't select any wide receivers in the 2015 draft. Still, Dobson is likely in a battle for the last spot on the WR depth chart with Brian Tyms (who also plays special teams) and free agent signee Brandon Gibson (who has terrific hands but is probably more of a slot option). In those brief times when Dobson hasn't been injured, he's shown flashes of NFL-level outside the numbers talent.

Of course, "when healthy" may well be two of the most ominous words in sports. It's good to remember Julian Edelman struggled to stay on the field early in his career at moments like this.

TE Scott Chandler – With all of the attention Rob Gronkowski rightly deserves from opposing defenses, Josh McDaniels' affinity for "12" personnel packages and having the best QB he's ever played with throwing passes his way, Chandler could have his Elvis Year in 2015. The only things that should stop him from having the best numbers of his career are (a) the learning curve inherent in the Pats' offense and (b) all the other options Brady and McDaniels have to choose from in Gronk, Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola, Tim Wright and Gaffney/Cadet/James White out of the backfield. Chandler simply has to learn to be in the right place at the right time. Given that he'll be far down the list of priorities for opposing defensive coordinators, he should be open when he gets there. And you know who Brady's favorite receiver is, don't you? That's right, the open one.

OL Cameron Fleming – Rumor has it Fleming has been working out this off-season with a move to guard in mind. If he can move inside to guard and play effectively the Patriots could have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. That would certainly help when you consider the defensive lines in Buffalo, Miami and New York. Given the athleticism to play tackle, he probably projects to left guard with draftee Tre' Jackson on the right. That would give the Patriots an offensive line of Nate Solder (6'8" 320), Fleming (6'6" 325), Bryan Stork (6'4" 310), Jackson (6'4" 330) and Sebastian Vollmer (6'8" 320).

DT Dominique Easley – Perhaps he shouldn't have played at all in 2014. It's hard to say how much his limited playing time helped his development as a pro. It's much easier to say that if he lives up to the hype, Patriots fans won't have to worry about all those cornerbacks not named Darrelle Revis as Easley buys a condo in opposing offenses backfields. This will be Easley's second year back from his second ACL repair and it usually takes two years to fully recover from that type of injury. Like many citizens of Patriots Nation, I'll be looking for the return of Easley's explosive athleticism in preseason games.

DE Chandler Jones – Jones has yet to become the next Willie McGinest some of us (was that just me?) expected when he was drafted in 2012. 2015 could prove to be a "less is more" season for Jones in the sense that he should have to play fewer snaps but be even more productive when he is on the field. Jabaal Sheard should provide relief for both Jones and Rob Ninkovich and if any one of the youngsters – incumbent Michael Buchanan or draftees Geneo Grissom and Trey Flowers – can step up and play 10-15 snaps it could mean a more active, more productive, less prone to injury Chandler Jones in 2015. So, I suppose I won't be watching Jones in the preseason games as much as I'll be tracking Buchanan, Moore, Grissom and Flowers. Jones is capable – New England picked up his 5th year option for a reason – and he's entering his prime. If he can play all 16, Jones should post career best in sacks in 2015.

Dont'a Hightower's and Jerod Mayo's Insurance Policies – Two of the Patriots top three linebackers will be coming back from injury in 2015. Their return will be closely followed, of course, but much like Chandler Jones, Hightower and Mayo are unlikely to see many snaps in the preseason and may even start camp on the PUP list. Instead, we'll get a heavy dose of incumbents James Morris, Darius Fleming, Cameron Gordon, Deontae Skinner and James White, free agent Jonathan Freeny and draft picks Matthew Wells, Xzavier Dickson and Geneo Grissom. Are there enough snaps to go around? I'd like to think one of these guys (Geneo Grissom?) is the heir apparent to Jerod Mayo. I'd also like to think the winning PowerBall ticket is in my wallet.

Cornerbacks – It's worth keeping an eye on just about everyone on the cornerback depth chart, not only through camp and preseason but probably on into September. As the offensive line was to 2014, so cornerback will be to 2014.

Is Malcolm Butler a one-hit wonder? (No.) Can Logan Ryan recover from his sophomore slump? (I think yes but I wouldn't bet the mortgage payment on it.) Will Bradley Fletcher benefit from a change of scenery? (Fingers crossed!) More to the larger point, are the Patriots really so bad off in the secondary?

In some ways, I think losing a player like Darrelle Revis has pigskin pundits and bobbleheads undervaluing their current position in the market. Revis is Top 5 and his greatness creates the perception of loss larger than the single player. Don’t get me wrong. To quote Woody Johnson, I'd love to have him on our team. As for Brandon Browner, I see that as addition by subtraction. I will definitely not miss the yellow hankies.

With an improved pass rush in front of them and Devin McCourty backing them up, Butler, Ryan, Fletcher, Kyle Arrington and whoever wins the 5th and 6th spots on the depth chart should be good enough. Having said that, cornerback is clearly a trust but verify position as the Patriots put together their Final 53.

We're on to 2015!