Pigskin Agony

Games like last night are the kind that will send fans straight through the five stages of grief directly to acceptance.

The New England Patriots of 2022 are not a playoff team.

Okay. Maybe that's just me. (Maybe it's my vain attempt at a reverse jinx.) I saw somewhere that the Patriots still have a 46.8% chance to make the playoffs after the loss to the Bills. So, in 468 of 1,000 scenarios, New England makes the playoffs. At least, I think that's what it means. The reality is that ultimately only one of those scenarios actually occurs. And while I'm neither a mathematician, a physicist, or a priest (who all just walked into a bar), I think that's how reality works.

Last night's game was really more of the same old same old from the 2022 Patriots. Mistakes. Penalties. An offense as predictable as tomorrow's sunrise. The Red Zone as Dead Zone. 14-yard gains on 3rd and 15. The end of half doink miss on the FGA by Nick Folk. 

Inches short. 

And it is a game of inches. Well, that's what I heard.

So, it's going to be a tough five game stretch to close out the season for ride or die bitches like myself. 

I'll tell myself it's part of Bill Belichick's master plan to go out on top. Next year, the Patriots will have a buttload of cap space and very likely be playing a last place schedule. As hinted at above, the Patriots are close; within inches of competing for a playoff spot right now. Add another solid draft class and a couple of playmaking free agents and New England should be back in the playoffs business. 

Well, okay, that's what I'll tell myself while I try to figure out if I want to root for the Chiefs or the Bengals or the Bills in the playoffs. And if a playoff run actually does happen for the 2023 Patriots, I'll have the digital evidence from this post that I called it.

Just trying to make a little something out of nothing there. 

Last night's game also prompted me to return to wondering if we're seeing a paradigm shift in real time with NFL football finally and fully embracing the running QB.

I'm not saying pocket passers are dinosaurs waiting for a meteor and maybe it's just a small data sample plus recency bias but athletic, dual-threat quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes present a special set of problems for defenses. The play is never over. If you lose contain, they can and will run for a first down. Or more. They can literally score by land or air from anywhere on the field.

If you play man-to-man and lose sight of these QBs while chasing wide receivers, they will punish you with the run. Allen and Hurts are big enough to literally punish defensive backs (and I'm guessing would delight in doing so). Do you just play zone and let them pick you apart? Hope they'll make a mistake? 

As noted, I wouldn't be so bold as to say that by 2025 all NFL teams are running RPO-based offenses with quarterbacks that are comfortable pulling the ball and running with it themselves. Pocket passers aren't going away but I think we're going to see fewer of the Joe Burrow, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Mac Jones-type quarterbacks as the game continues to evolve. Revolve? I suppose it's really a return to its roots. The single wing, the full house T-formation and quarterbacks who wore leather helmets, crooked noses and false teeth. Or replacement teeth. Dentistry has come a long way since the 1930s.

If you are going to win with a pocket passer, you'd better have the offensive linemen to protect him and wide receivers that can beat man coverage. Right now, the Patriots have neither. 

It is what it is.

They say lost causes are the only ones worth fighting for. 

I think the people who say that are crazy, but, what the hell.

Go Pats!