Unintended Consequences

With Roger Goodell naming himself as the fair and impartial arbiter for Tom Brady's appeal, my early optimism regarding Brady playing all 16 regular season games has shouted "Abracadabra!", thrown a flash bomb at its feet and vanished through a trap door, center stage.

 

As a Patriots fan, it's hard not to see the Deflategate decision not so much as a reasonable punishment for a proven violation of league rules so much as an effort to "level" the playing field. I say "level" because it's probably more accurate to describe it as an attempt to tip the field to the advantage of all NFL teams not named Patriots. Giving the rest of the league a four-game head start may not keep the Patriots out of the playoffs but it might cost them home field advantage and that could be enough to stop them from getting back to the Super Bowl.

Then again, I can't help but remember The Law of Unintended Consequences, which is more often mentioned in discussing the long-term ramifications of engaging in a land war in Asia than it is when discussing the governance of professional sports franchises but it certainly applies to any complex system. Yes, democracy is a "good idea." That is, until the locals elect somebody who ran on the "Death to America" platform.

Anyway, I've been considering how this all might backfire on Goodell. After all, he's proven to be stupendously good at getting things wrong so the judgment in Deflategate could well be a ticking time bomb of litigation, public humiliation, lost revenue and organizational chaos. When it comes to unintended consequences, Roger Goodell has my full faith and confidence.

Consider this. Jimmy Garoppolo is the best quarterback the Patriots have drafted since, well, Tom Brady. With Brady's public statements that he wants to play into his 40s, though, Jimmy G was unlikely to see the field while wearing a New England uniform (aside from infrequent mop up duty and barring injury). Like Matt Cassel, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett before him, Garoppolo is a future 3rd round draft pick waiting to happen. In all likelihood and despite Belichick's best efforts to put together a continuity plan at QB, Jimmy G will be playing for the Dallas Cowboys when Brady retires, effectively ending New England's pigskin hegemony. Yes, the rest of the NFL would have to put up with the Patriots asking everyone if you want to check their balls for another two to four years but after that, it would be over. #NoBradyNoBanner would take on an entirely new meaning then.

Assuming Goodell upholds Brady's four-game suspension, though, we could be set upon a pigskin path to a far different possible future.

Quick Aside: The following is for entertainment purposes only! Some content may disturb younger readers!

The Unintended QB of the Future

The Patriots start the season with Jimmy G at quarterback. Garoppolo doesn't just play well enough not to lose, he plays lights out. He turns out to be a gridiron amalgam of Tony Romo (same alma mater, same outstanding deep ball accuracy) and Drew Brees (same laser-guided accuracy, though not quite as short as Brees). He shreds the Steelers defense in the season opener, leads an incredible 4th quarter comeback for the win in Buffalo the following week and eviscerates the Jaguars in Week 3. Jimmy Garoppolo is leading the league in passing yards, passing TDs, completion percentage and QBR. The Patriots lead the league in scoring and points differential. It's a small data sample, of course, but there's already talk about what New England should do when Brady returns from his suspension. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads consider the possibility Bill Belichick could recover that 2016 1st round pick and the 2017 4th rounder they lost in the Deflategate judgment by trading Jimmy G. Garoppolo makes his first appearance in a TV commercial, selling Fords for a local dealership. #10 jerseys are flying out of the gift shop at Patriots Place.

The Patriots head into their bye week 3-0-0 and with the extra week to work out the details, Bill Belichick does something only Bill Belichick could do. He trades Tom Brady.

Quick Aside: Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only! If you let your kids read this and they're crying now, I'm sorry, but you were warned.

Who would trade for an aging Tom Brady?

Okay, Brady would be two years older than Peyton Manning when he hit the market but remember Manning's age was a secondary concern to the neck injury. In short, aside from places like Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers), who wouldn't trade for Brady? He's still playing at a high level, he's got a cap-friendly contract and you know he'd be highly motivated to show Belichick he made a mistake in letting him go. What's not to like?

John Fox did okay with Peyton Manning in Denver and he desperately wants to move on from Jay Cutler. How about Bill O'Brien down in Houston? It may be too early to expect Carson Palmer to be hurt but Brady would finally get that chance to throw passes to Larry Fitzgerald (God loves irony, after all). I don't know if Belichick would trade Brady in the division as he did with Drew Bledsoe; I think not. I do think it would be a seller's market and Belichick would get picks and players in return for Brady.

Instead of an end to New England's dynasty, the Patriots pivot and set themselves up to continue dominating the AFC for another decade.

After the bye, the Patriots travel to Dallas and lose. There's more than a little second-guessing of Belichick who refuses to discuss Brady, saying that he'll only talk about the players on the New England roster. He refuses to rise to the bait when he's asked if the upcoming game with the Colts has additional meaning because of their role in Deflategate. Belichick notes the Colts game counts the same as any other game on the schedule. New England travels to Indianapolis and runs the football 60 times for over 325 yards. Garoppolo has a solid game with 2 TD passes and 0 interceptions as the Patriots win 52-17.

New England finishes the 2015 with a 13-3-0 record, winning the AFC East and securing a 1st round bye and home field throughout the playoffs. They win Super Bowl 50 with Jimmy G taking home his first Super Bowl MVP with 385 yards passing, 4 TD passes and 0 INT.

After the SB50 win, Belichick retires as HC and becomes General Manager and President of Football Operations for New England. He parlays the draft picks obtained in the Brady trade into a stud wide receiver, a hall of fame left tackle, a pro bowl DE/OLB and a pro bowl cornerback. He also uses one of his extra 2nd round picks on a safety Mel Kiper, Jr. doesn't know anything about and nobody had on their big board.

With Josh McDaniels as their Head Coach and Jimmy Garoppolo starting at QB, the Patriots win the AFC East the next eight years in a row, get to the AFC Championship four times and win two more Super Bowls with Garoppolo taking home the MVP twice more.

Goodell's failure to curb the Patriots dynasty proves his undoing. He is removed as commissioner in early 2017. By 2019 his fall from grace is complete. He loses all his money betting against the Patriots. He's homeless. He's been arrested multiple times for petty thefts and has been in and out of rehab multiple times. He nearly dies from alcohol poisoning. In 2020, moved by the plight of the man he once called friend, Robert Kraft offers him a job cleaning toilets at Gillette Stadium. In 2021, Kraft fires him for poor performance.

Fin

Of course, I’d rather see Brady win his 5th ring and walk away vindicated.

Jimmy G can wait till 2016.