Messing with Texas

It’s the classic trap game.

 

Then again, I suppose you could say that about every game played in the NFL. I’ve long maintained the difference in the overall level of talent from one team to the next is slim to none. The difference on the scoreboard comes down to injuries, quarterbacks and coaching in most games. Injuries are a fact of pigskin life so it behooves NFL franchises to make good decisions when hiring a head coach and drafting a franchise quarterback. And given the reality of injuries, having a credible backup QB isn’t too far down the checklist of priorities.

Patriots vs. Texans in Week 13 was supposed to be an early look at the AFC playoffs; a potential battle for the #1 or #2 seed and a bye week. The game may still have some seeding implications but only for the Patriots.

The Texans will take the field without lead RB Arian Foster. Former franchise QB Matt Schaub has been benched in favor of home town hero Case Keenum. Houston also crosses the chalk with the NFL’s top defense – from a yardage point of view, anyway. From a scoring perspective, the Texans are tied with the Broncos at #26, giving up 26.3 points per game.

That’s crazy.

I assume this has something to do with turnovers. The Texans are tied with the Falcons for the second worse mark in the NFL at -12. Only the Jets are more worse at -16. (More worse? Somehow seeing that in the same sentence with “Jets” makes perfect sense.) Still, the 25 place swing from best yardage defense to bottom 10 scoring defense is remarkable. I had to bust out some Excel for a closer look…

Team	Yds/G Rank	Scoring Rank	Scoring Effectiveness
Houston	1	26	-25
NY Jets	9	25	-16
Cleveland	4	19	-15
NY Giants	12	24	-12

Are we surprised by any of the teams on the above list? Show of hands? No? Didn’t think so.

How about the other end of the spectrum?

Team	Yds/G Rank	Scoring Rank	Scoring Effectiveness
New England	21	9	12
San Diego	29	15	14
Kansas City	17	2	15
Philadelphia	31	15	16

A couple of surprises here (San Diego? Philadelphia?) but New England, whose logo is next to “Bend but don’t Break” in Webster’s Pigskin Dictionary, is hardly a shock here.

Looking at these two lists again I’m reminded of where I started with this post.

Injuries, quarterbacks and coaches.

The Texans, Jets, Browns and Giants have all suffered from poor performances at the quarterback position this season; Geno Smith and Eli Manning have 18 and 17 interceptions respectively. I still think Rex Ryan is a better defensive coordinator than a head coach; Tom Coughlin’s resume speaks for itself. Brandon Weedon has 7 INT in 7 games played and a QBR of 23.9. (Cleveland lost its best QB, Brian Hoyer, to injury.) As for Schaub and Keenum, it’s clearly a Case of the lesser of two evils. (See what I did there?) Gary Kubiak’s next job will probably be an OC gig.

Conversely, we see the Chargers with a resurgent Philip Rivers, Alex Smith stabilizing the Chiefs offense, Nick Foles putting his name on the 2012 draft class list with Luck/Wilson/RG III and sometimes Ryan Tannehill. All three of those franchises have new head coaches this year; Mike McCoy for San Diego, Andy Reid for KC and Chip Kelly for Philadelphia. As for the Patriots, they have Tom Brady. And Bill Belichick.

If the Patriots and Texans play to form today, New England should carry the day. In a best case scenario for Patriots Nation, Brady will put points on the board in the 1^st quarter and leave nothing to circumstance. Something tells me Bill Belichick may have taken advantage of good friend Nick Saban’s misfortune to remind his team that if they leave the outcome of this game to a single play, it may not break their way. The ball has pointy ends. It takes funny bounces. This Patriots team should know that better than most.