53 for Now

Random thoughts as the Patriots prepare to fill out their practice squad and figure out whether or not to sign a long-snapper or cut their punter and place-kicker.

Okay, I don’t think Bill Belichick is going to go for it on all 4^th downs despite the statistical models that have encouraged some high school coaches eschew punting. Nor do I think he will go for two after all touchdowns even if he has loaded the roster up red zone threats. If there was an NFL coach to try either of these strategies it would be Belichick, of course. There’s a fine line between innovation and insanity, I guess. With a kicker as good as Stephen Gostkowski, who hit a 60-yard FGA in the preseason, I think it makes sense to kick extra points and field goals on 4^th and long when the Pats are on the opponent’s side of the 50.

So, the question isn’t if Bill Belichick will add a long-snapper to the roster, it’s who gets cut when they sign a long-snapper. The consensus amongst local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads is that 10^th offensive lineman Chris Barker is sitting on the hottest seat of the current 53.

Perhaps Barker should learn how to throw a football backwards between his legs.

Will help be coming at linebacker? Is help needed at linebacker? I suppose it depends how you count players like Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. As must read Chris Price of WEEI noted in his Sunday NFL Notes today, New England usually keeps 8 (7.8) defensive linemen and 7 (7.4) linebackers. After the final cuts to 53, the Patriots were carrying 10 defensive linemen and just 5 linebackers. Those of you with 3^rd grade-level math skills will note that both sets of numbers add up to 15.

Or you can use a calculator like I did.

I know I said I’d put down my “Trade Ryan Mallett” placards but news the Patriots had worked out UDFA QB Jeff Mathews represents a best case scenario for the QB position: Two on the Final 53 and one on the practice squad.

Mathews caught my eye in the run up to the draft. He had a big arm, the classic measurables for height and hand size and he was smart enough to get into an Ivy League school. Could the Patriots strike sixth round gold at the QB position again?

Clearly Belichick had other ideas and I am quite happy to acknowledge once again that Bill Belichick knows more about football than I do (and it isn’t even close). Jimmy Garoppolo looks like the real deal.

I understand the value proposition with Mallett. If he walks in free agency next year, New England can get a compensatory draft pick in return. If they cut him now, they get nothing. That just doesn’t sound like Belichick. Trader Bill may be willing, but until every last one of the Kyle Orton’s of the world are signed, I don’t see a trade market for Mallett.

I’ll feel a whole lot different about this if Roy Finch and Jeremy Gallon somehow make it through waivers and sign on to the Patriots practice squad.

Are there enough weapons on the current 53-man roster for Tom Brady?

Let’s assume a Top 5 defense and a Top 10 rushing game. Based on the preseason, I feel a lot better about the former than the latter and it now seems overly optimistic to think Stevan Ridley will return to his 2012 form but this is a contract year for Ridley. It seems fair to think that New England will sort out the starting offensive line and Bill Belichick will find someone to tote the rock. 

Let’s assume good health for Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen. Maybe I should add Julian Edelman to that list, too. Gronk is the tipping point, of course; the Patriots are 7 points better on offense with Gronk on the field. He’s a mismatch one-on-one; opposing defenses will have to game plan to help the linebackers and safeties tasked with covering Gronkowski. That means single coverage for Jules and Amendola outside and underneath. While safeties are helping out with Gronk they can’t support the unfortunate linebacker left to chase Vereen out of the backfield.

Let’s assume Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins build on the promise of their rookie years. Dobson looked full go in his preseason cameo while Thompkins seems to left his second half fade in 2013 in the rear view. With Gronk drawing the full attention over the middle, Dobson and Thompkins should find plenty of one-on-one coverage on the outside.

Did Bill Belichick get the better of Lovie Smith in the trade that brought Tim Wright to Foxborough? (In any contest between Belichick and Smith we’re giving the points and taking Belichick, aren’t we?) Wright left most citizens of Patriots Nation dreaming of a return of the 2TE offense after his performance in preseason game #4. Wright may not be a perfect fit for the “Joker” role opposite Gronkowski but he looks like he could do a fair amount of damage.

Maybe this trade looks like a “win-win” if we’re grading Wright and Mankins in 2014 but Belichick also reaped $5m in cap space and a 4^th round pick in next year’s draft. If that cap space turns into an extension for Darrelle Revis and that 4^th round pick turns into a future starter, then this trade starts to look like a “WIN-win” for New England.

So, let’s assume the new guys, Tim Wright and Brandon LaFell, contribute 3-5 catches a game. Three catches each would project to 96 receptions! By my count, there are 8 players on the current roster with the potential for 55+ catches (Vereen, Gronkowski, Wright, Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins, LaFell). If that happened, it would project to 440+ receptions. Tom Brady’s personal best in completions is 401 (2011, 2012).

So, does Brady have enough weapons? Yeah, I think so.