In case there was any doubt, this is a quarterback’s
league. Make a list of the best QB’s in the NFL and then cross-check that
against a list of the teams in the playoffs. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck,
Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees
are probably on your list in some order and all of them going to the pigskin
prom. And if it hadn’t been for an officiating
gaffe in the Chiefs-Chargers game, Roethlisberger would be in the playoffs,
too. Andy Dalton was close to making the best list but then he threw four
interceptions against the Ravens. Good thing for the Ginger QB and Bengals’
fans that defense wins championships.
So, who’s winning this thing? The pigskin pundit
and bobblehead consensus seems to be just about anyone except the San Diego and
even the Chargers are given a punchers chance with the revitalized offense and
the signature win over Denver just three weeks ago. It’s easy to go chalk and
pencil in the two top seeds for the conference championships with the home
teams going to the Super Bowl. Does life ever turn out like that?
AFC Playoffs
Denver Broncos – From this perspective, a
record-setting offense and a porous defense hasn’t proven to be a recipe for playoff
success but the record book-shredding juggernaut that is the Peyton Manning-led
Broncos offense is impossible to deny. It’s hard for those of us in New England
to imagine, but everyone west of the Berkshires loves Peyton Manning. They
think his Papa John Pizza commercials are hilarious. I fully expect this to
translate into a few calls going Denver’s way in the playoffs. Unfair Perception: The unfair perception
that Peyton Manning cannot win in cold weather was supposedly dismissed by a
cold weather victory a few weeks ago but there remains the Peyton Manning is
not clutch in the playoffs perception, based on his 9-11 record in the
post-season. Is 20 games a small data sample?
New England Patriots – After losing
Wes Welker to free agency and Aaron Hernandez to the criminal justice system
and then losing Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Tommy Kelly, Sebastian Vollmer and
Rob Gronkowski to injury, it’s crazy enough the Patriots are in the playoffs,
let alone with the #2 seed and a bye. New England could blow up at home in the
divisional round (they’re likely to draw everyone’s favorite not named the
Broncos, the Cincinnati Bengals). Given the adversity this team has already
faced and overcome nothing this team does should surprise us. Having one of the
best cold-weather QBs of all time doesn’t hurt. Unfair Perception: The Cheatriots haven’t won a Super Bowl since
2004. Haters still want to talk about Spygate. That was so five years ago! Wherever
the truth may lie, it seems clear that only another Lombardi Trophy will change
the conversation.
Cincinnati Bengals – The best defense in the
AFC despite the loss of DT Geno Atkins. Solid RB combo with BenJarvus
Green-Ellis and Giovanni Bernard and game-breaking receiving corps led by A.J.
Green. QB Andy Dalton set the single season team mark with 33 TD passes in
2013, breaking Carson Palmer’s record. (And any time your name is mentioned in
the same sentence with Carson Palmer is, well, okay it’s a good thing this
time.) The Bengals may be the best all-around team in the AFC side of the
bracket (Top 10 offense, Top 5 defense, Top 10 special teams). Unfair Perception: Andy Dalton will
never carry a team to the Super Bowl. A tough one because there’s only one way
to change people’s minds and that’s to do what nobody thinks you can do. His 4
INT effort in Week 17 only added to the perception that Cincinnati wins despite
– not because of – Andy Dalton. Personally, Marvin Lewis’s game-mismanagement
potential is a much bigger concern than Dalton’s overconfidence in his strong
right arm. The Bengals should win at home in the Wild Card round but they have
not played well on the road; it seems unlikely they make it to the AFC
Championship.
Indianapolis Colts – If they hadn’t lost
Reggie Wayne to injury, the Colts might’ve wound up with the #2 seed in the
AFC. The Colts are a hard team to figure out. Big win on the road over the
49ers on the road, inexplicable loss to the Rams at home. Indy finished strong,
sort of, with two of their last three wins against the Texans and Jaguars. They
also beat the Chiefs – their Wild Card matchup – on the road. In one sense, the
Colts are the poster child for the 2013 playoffs. When they’re on their game,
they can beat anyone (they have wins over the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos on
their resume) and when they’re not on their game they can also lose to anyone
(Bengals, Chargers). Unfair Perception: Andrew Luck is Amish.
Seriously, what is it with that beard?
Kansas City Chiefs – Can the defense get its
mojo back? It was a lot easier to believe in the Chiefs when Alex Smith wasn’t
being relied on to win games. Kansas City has Jamaal Charles and that might
just be enough. Still, the Chiefs need their defense to step up and play like
they did in Weeks 1-8 if they’re going to make any noise in the playoffs. Unfair Perception: Is it just me or do
the Chiefs already look a whole lot like Andy Reid’s Philadelphia Eagles teams?
While this makes sense from a stylistic point of view and in terms of regular
season success, it also conjures up images of playoff failure. Reid is 10-9 in
the playoffs for his career which is both a winning and a mediocre record.
AFC Predictions
The Bengals and Colts win decisively at home in
the Wild Card round. The Colts win on the road in Denver as Peyton Manning
forgets that he’s really a good cold weather quarterback and Wes Welker drops a
critical third down pass in his return from multiple concussions. The Patriots
win as Andy Dalton throws six interceptions, two of which are returned for
touchdowns. The Colts fall short in Foxborough as Tom Brady has his best game
of the season, throwing four TD passes to Julian Edelman.
NFC Playoffs
Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks have been
the consensus pick of pigskin pundits and bobbleheads since the preseason to
represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and little has happened to change this
view. If defense wins championships then Seattle should be a mortal lock to
bring home the Lombardi Trophy come February. They have been average for the
most part on offense (yet still managed a Top 10 finish in scoring at 26.1
points per game) and struggled down the stretch, losing at San Fran and more
shockingly at home to Arizona while beating the NY Giants and St. Louis Rams. Meh.
Unfair Perception: It shouldn’t be
CenturyLink Field, it should be Pfizer Field.
Carolina Panthers – A defense that rivals
the Seahawks. And like Seattle, the Panthers’ defense has been carrying a below
average offense. Not to worry! Offenses don’t win championships! Cam Newton has
played well enough when needed, most notably in the clutch game-winning drive
against the Saints just two weeks ago; less notably in their “a win is a win”
victory on the road in Atlanta, perhaps the least impressive win amongst
playoff qualifiers in Week 17. Unfair
Perception: Cam Newton is not a franchise QB. Okay, that may not be totally
unfair. Newton is young; he’s 24 years old and just finished his third season
of NFL play. On the other hand, the numbers
don’t lie.
Philadelphia Eagles – Apparently, you
can win with a high school offense in the NFL. One thing you can’t do
though is win a Super Bowl with the worst pass defense in the league. That
doesn’t mean that Chip Kelly’s Eagles won’t be fun to watch in the playoffs.
The Eagles won arguably the worst division in the NFL and did so with an
unimpressive 24-22 win over the Dallas Cowboys sans starting QB Tony Romo.
Philadelphia will go as far as Nick Foles and their high school offense will
take them which probably won’t be very far. Unfair
Perception: It’s not a high school offense. It’s a college offense.
Green Bay Packers – The Packers are everyone’s
dark horse pick with Aaron Rodgers back under center and why not? Rodgers is
one of the elite QBs in the game today. Okay, the defense wasn’t very good with
Clay Matthews in 2013 and there’s that whole Defense = Championships thing.
Rodgers is more than capable of putting lots of crooked numbers on the
scoreboard and now has a running game in Eddie Lacy to make play action that
much more effective. Still, Green Bay is going to need to score a lot of points
to offset their liabilities on defense. Unfair
Perception: That’s real cheese people are wearing on their heads.
San Francisco 49ers – Arguably a better team
than the Eagles and Packers (and maybe the Panthers), the Niners will need to
win three roadies to get to New Jersey thanks to the fact they play in the
loaded NFC West. San Francisco was good on the road in 2013, with a 6-2-0
record and hit the playoffs on a 6-game winning streak. The 49ers run the ball
on offense and stop the run on defense. They will be a tough out. Unfair Perception: Colin Kaepernick
forgot how to play QB. Kaepernick’s numbers as a passer were down a bit from
2012 but even though the Niners reportedly de-emphasized the zone read plays in
2013 he still was the second leading rusher on the team with 524 yards. As he
proved last year, the playoff stage will not be too big for him.
New Orleans Saints – The Saints improved
defense wasn’t enough to take the NFC South but it may return dividends in the
playoffs. They weren’t particularly good stopping the run but they ranked #2 in
limiting passing yardage. Despite the upgrades on defense, NOLA’s high powered
Drew Brees-directed offense will have to put beaucoup points on the board to
win. Unfair Perception: The Saints can’t
win on the road/outdoors/in
weather. There are some small data sample/recentism biases
involved in this view of the Saints. They are a dome team and were rightly
built to succeed indoors on a fast track. This only reinforces the narrative as
they may be perceived as a finesse team (there aren’t any finesse teams in the
NFL) without the running game (ranking just 25th in rush yards)
typically associated with winter football. Personally, I’d throw the ball all
the time if I had Drew Brees at QB.
NFC Predictions
Both Wild Card teams win. The Saints outscore the
Eagles and the 49ers defense limits Aaron Rodgers in a close win as Frank Gore
and Colin Kaepernick both top 100 yards rushing. Seattle holds home field
against New Orleans in the divisional round but San Francisco ends Carolina’s
Super Bowl dreams in a rout. In the NFC Championship, Kaepernick makes one more
play than Russell Wilson, sending the 49ers back to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Prediction
New England Patriots 32, San Francisco 49ers 31
What? It could happen.
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