No Time for Tiddlywinks

Does everything regress to the mean?

 

I don’t know if I believe in luck and I don’t even know if I can say the Patriots have been lucky or unlucky in 2013. New England lost Shane Vereen just when he looked like a legitimate threat both running and catching the football. Those rookie wide receivers that showed great promise in the preseason have looked every bit like rookies now that the games actually count. Zach Sudfeld, who was supposed to fill in till Gronk was ready, pulled a hammy while tipping a pass to the bad guys in Week 1 and couldn’t even get on the field in Week 2. Stevan Ridley has made us glad the Patriots picked up LeGarrette Blount during the off-season; LeGarrette Blount has not. All-pro special teams gunner Matthew Stafford is out indefinitely (and it’s still a game of field position). Mockery of Tom Brady in the blogosphere has reached a new low.

Sounds unlucky.

On the other hand, the Patriots – facing rookie QBs both times – have eked out victories in their first two games and sit 2-0-0 overall and in their division.

Sounds lucky.

I guess the point is that football, like life, is a mixed bag. We’re all day to day. Adversity, it seems, is a constant companion.

After their 2-0-0 start, I realized that I would be more than happy if the Pats were 5-5-0 but fully healthy when the Broncos come to town. Like the Belichick-led New England teams of the past decade, I would expect them to rise to that occasion, of course.

So too I realized my icy cold glass of Bill Belichick Kool-Aid is still half full.

Will Gronkowski play today? Questionable. Will Amendola play? Doubtful (an understatement). Will even one of the rookie wideouts play well enough to stop the ridiculous Terrell Owens chatter?

Probable?

Probably not.

Maybe Logan Mankins will fire up that offensive line and Stevan Ridley will rush for 100+ yards against Tampa Bay’s stout front seven. Or maybe Blount comes up big against his former teammates. Maybe Josh McDaniels finds a way to hide Julian Edelman from Darrelle Revis and Jules helps keep Tom Brady’s head from exploding.

More likely this one will be on the defense again.

That wouldn’t have been a comforting thought last year. Or the year before that. Or the year before that. I know, I know. Rookie quarterbacks have a way of making defenses look good but still, we’ve seen pressure from the front seven and a ball-hawking secondary that has resulted in six turnovers. While the offense has struggled, the defense appears to be coming together.

Lucky.