Time to Think

For fans of the top seeds, the wild card round is all about wishful thinking. Hoping the match ups in the divisional round work out in your team's favor.

 

A few thoughts I'm thinking…

The Broncos starting Peyton Manning is really no surprise.

John Elway didn't bring Manning to Denver to backup Brock Osweiler, after all. Viewed through my Patriots Beer Goggles this is good news, even if the Curse of Doug Flutie wasn't real (it is). What is undeniably real is Manning's 11-13 record in playoff games and the 24 interceptions he's thrown in those 24 games. And his noodly arm. The Broncos will be counting on their defense and running game, of course, and hope the hang time on Manning's throws outside the numbers is a non-factor.

It will be fascinating to see what happens if the Broncos fall behind by two or more scores. The Denver defense isn't supposed to let that happen but let's say there are a couple of fluky plays like a punt return TD or a ball that bounces off a Broncos receiver's hands and into the waiting arms of a defensive back who takes it to the house. Throw in a long field goal by the visitors and all of a sudden Denver is trailing 17-0. Does Denver continue to run the football? Does head coach Gary Kubiak bench Manning in favor of Osweiler's younger, stronger, not noodly arm? Will he regret blowing that momentum shifting moment in bringing Manning in off the bench on a regular season game? Bringing Osweiler in to replace Peyton will hardly have the same psychological effect on the Broncos' offensive huddle. Maybe it doesn't matter…

Best QBs in Playoffs – AFC Bracket

#1 – Tom Brady

#2 – Ben Roethlisberger

#3 – Alex Smith

#4 – Peyton Manning

#5 – Brian Hoyer

#6 – A.J. McCarron

Tom Brady gives the Patriots the edge at the game's most important position but is that enough? No, of course not (in case you missed that Week 17 loss to the Dolphins). If New England's ambulatory wounded return to full strength, the Patriots can beat any team, at any venue. Still, I'd rather see the AFC Championship game played in Foxborough. Two things I'm counting on…

A) Peyton "One and Done" Manning

B) Neither the Steelers or the Chiefs will not be intimidated by a road trip to Mile High

The worst case scenario would be the Texans beating the Chiefs (and don't sleep on the Texans who will have the best football player on the field in J.J. Watt). I just can't see Brian Hoyer surviving the game against the Broncos' defense, let along winning the game.

Has Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl window already closed?

Probably not. As a Patriots' fan, I understand firsthand how important one special receiver (Julien Edelman for the Pats, Jordy Nelson for the Packers) can be to a quarterback so it's premature to say Rodgers is done as a championship QB. For the here and now, though, it's fair to say he isn't the best quarterback in the NFC playoff bracket, let alone the NFL right now. I'd rank him fourth at best, behind Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and Carson Palmer.

Best QBs in Playoffs – NFC Bracket

#1 – Russell Wilson

#2 – Cam Newton

#3 – Carson Palmer

#4 – Aaron Rodgers

#5 – Kirk Cousins

#6 – Teddy Bridgewater  

Will Russell Wilson regress to the mean or is his recent hot streak the new normal for the Seahawks QB? Perhaps more importantly, will the return of Marshawn Lynch be a net negative as Pete Carroll and Darrell Bevell feed Beast Mode and take the ball out of Wilson's hands?

Some things take care of themselves of course. It's Lynch's first game back so expecting him to get 25+ carries is improbable and unrealistic. Besides, with temps in single, negative digits, my understanding is that the footballs will lose air pressure (have you heard about this?), making the ball easier to grip and throw, so, I would expect Wilson to have a big, competitive-advantaged game against the Vikings.

Is Cam Newton the blueprint for QBs of the future?

Well, in the sense that if you could find another Cam Newton, of course. A guy built like a tight end who can throw from the pocket and run for chunk yardage? Yes please.

You could argue Newton isn't a great pocket passer and even if you add his passing and rushing yards, his combined 4,473 yards would rank 6th behind the passing yards totals of Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan. On the other hand, it's hard to argue with that 15-1-0 regular season record. Okay, you could argue the Carolina defense had something to do with that.

I would argue that Cam Newton is sui generis.

The best comps may be Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill (no, not Russell Wilson or Tyrod Taylor who aren't in the same height or weight class) and Newton has 25 pounds on Mariota and Tannehill. Mariota may go on to have a great career if the Titans hire Josh McDaniels to be his next head coach. Tannehill is athletic and effective running the ball but he's probably done as I'm expecting the Dolphins to do something monumentally stupid in hiring their next head coach.

Let's face it. Athleticism is never a negative. If Tom Brady or Peyton Manning could run a 4.3 40 and were a constant threat to tuck it and run (as hard as that is to picture), that would hardly be a bad thing. The thing is, it isn't so easy to find a guy who can stand in a collapsing pocket, look off the safety and throw a football 20+ yards downfield, dropping it into a moving 8" square window with a 65% success rate and who also runs the football like Eric Dickerson.

Newton has 25 pounds on Dickerson, too.

So, am I rooting for Cam Newton and the Panthers to make it to the Super Bowl?

Not as long as the Patriots are still in the playoffs.