Newsworthy

As I scanned the usual and customary web sites this morning I was reminded of that old saying; things are never as good as the seem or as bad as they seem. Except when they are.

No Gronk, No Problem?

Against the 49ers, the Patriots managed the win despite obviously missing Gronkowski. I think the good citizens of Patriots Nation are good with taking a cautious approach to Gronk’s return even as we’re suddenly that much more concerned with the trip to New Jersey to play the play Gotham’s younger pigskin son. This Sunday’s game is a virtual Super Bowl for the 3-7-0 Jets. Gronk’s absence has to be filed in the “So You’re Saying There’s A Chance” folder.

The Patriots-Jets rivalry is truly one of those where you can throw out the records. Tom Brady has never said that he hates Roger Goodell (or any of the secondary actors in Amazon’s original series on Deflategate, “The Man in the Low Castle”) but Brady has said that he hates the Jets. Aside from the regional NYC vs. Boston aspect, this feud has more subtext than a Russian novel. Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Curtis Martin, Darrelle Revis. Not to mention it was the Jets who started Spygate. Or the former Jets in the league office who led the Deflategate witch hunt. It may lack the storied history of Bears-Packers but what it lacks in footnotes it makes up in unfiltered vitriol.

The Patriots had better be ready for the Jets best game of the season or risk losing ground in the race for home field advantage in the playoffs.

-Yours truly, Captain Obvious

Maybe You Should Have Your Eyes Checked?

Local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads continue to gnaw on the ankle of Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. New England’s defense has significantly underperformed expectations this season, expectations that spiked with the shutout win over the Texans in Week 3.

The Pats D certainly fails the eye test. There’s no Von Miller or JJ Watt on this team. Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins are playing well for their new teams while their replacements, Jabaal Sheard and Elandon Roberts have struggled. In terms of Total Defense, they are decidedly average, ranking 17 out of 32 teams in yards allowed.

In terms of the only stat that matters to Bill Belichick - points allowed - the Patriots are ranked #3. That puts them in the top 10%, which suits my admittedly arbitrary definition of elite.

Average or elite? Who knows? I’m not sure even Patricia or Belichick know. Yet.

The Patriots could pitch a shutout against the Jets, generate 4+ sacks, create 4+ turnovers and a defensive score and the gridiron cognoscenti would remind us all that it was just the Jets. Let’s face it. This narrative thread will continue to unwind until the playoffs and New England’s defense either rises to the occasion or becomes the focus of the numberless offseason storylines about wasting another precious year of Tom Brady’s Hall of Fame career.

Hey, Matt Patricia! No pressure, man. Because Tom Brady is going to the Hall of Fame no matter what you do.

By the Numbers

27. 199. 499.

Tom Brady won his 27th AFC Offensive Player of the Week award following his 4 TD passing performance in San Francisco last Sunday. That ties him with Peyton Manning for the all-time mark. Brady also won his 199th game as a starter (regular season and playoffs), tying Brett Favre and leaving him one short of Manning’s mark of 200 Ws. The Patriots franchise recorded its 499th win last week as well, the best mark of any former AFL team.

So, for those of us who like to keep the math simple, should Tom Brady and the Patriots win this Sunday, Brady will own 40% of the franchise’s victories. That’s how good Tom Terrific and the Belichick era Patriots have been. Brady has played in approximately 26% of the franchise’s games and won 40% of the total games played. Admittedly, very rough math based on Brady’s 14.5-ish years as a starter and the franchise’s inception in 1960.

Numbers like these are only meaningful in context and I’m far too lazy to work the numbers for Manning, Favre or Marino (or account for the years the Patriots only played 14 regular season games) but even without the comps, those numbers sort of jump off the page, don’t they?  

Let’s say Brady plays two more years, matching Manning’s 17 seasons as a starter. Let’s say the Patriots finish 2016 no worse than 12-4-0 and match that record in 2017 and 2018. That would give Brady 227 wins, minimum. Throw in at least one playoff win each of those three years and it’s 230.

I know. It’s a team sport. Brady doesn’t win games by himself and some very smart people will argue that it’s a poor metric for judging quarterbacks. Okay. Sure. Whatever.

Look at the list of most total wins for NFL quarterbacks and it’s a who’s who of great QBs. A few other things struck me…

• Brady’s winning percentage of .765 is the only mark above .685 in the Top 20 (Russell Wilson is winning at a .720 clip but his 60 wins leaves him far down the list in terms of total wins).
• The drop off from that second place tie of 199 wins for Brady and Favre to 162 wins for John Elway appears to be statistically significant. Unfortunately, the only thing I know about standard deviation is how to spell it.
• The next closest active player on the list is Drew Brees with 134 wins. Again, seems like a significant variance from 199. Ben Roethlisberger has 129 wins; Eli Manning has 112. Philip Rivers has 100 wins and Aaron Rodgers has 91.

Can any of them get to 200 wins before they hang ‘em up? It seems unlikely. Brees is almost as old as Brady so I'll take Ben Roethlisberger. Let’s say the 5-5-0 Steelers can get to 10-6 to finish 2016. That would give Roethlisberger 134 wins. If Roethlisberger averaged 12 wins a year starting in 2017, he could hit 200 wins sometime in 2023. It would be his 19th season as a starting QB in the NFL; he would be 40-years old. I wouldn’t want to say it’s impossible but I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it.

What if Brady can play until he’s 45 as he’s said he wants to. Let’s assume that only happens if Brady doesn’t suck (as he’s noted would be the determining factor in how much longer he plays). Three more seasons of 12-4-0 regular seasons (and a few playoff wins) would mean something in the neighborhood of 270 wins.

And at least one more Super Bowl win?

I think I just blew my own mind. Seriously, I’m freaking myself out right now.

Imagine.

Brady at 270 wins, Manning at 200 and who cares who’s playing for 3rd place?

I’m guessing he’ll break the tie with Manning on AFC Offensive Player of the Week awards, too; somewhere along the way.