“There are lies, damned lies and statistics.”
-Mark Twain
“Stats are for losers.”
-Bill Belichick
Bill Belichick is a secret stat nerd. He just doesn’t want you to know it. I get it. It’s complicated. But I like to keep things simple. As Belichick himself has acknowledged, there is one stat that matters; points.
So, I decided to power rank the NFL by point differential. It seems obvious. Not to mention simple. When the math features letters from the Greek alphabet I want to start talking about Lady Gaga’s “Joanne.” Anyway, that’s how the games are won; your team scores more points than the other team does. There are different ways to do that, of course. Maybe your team has a great offense and simply outscores the opposing team’s offense. Maybe your team has a great defense and a great field goal kicker. It’s wildly improbable but an NFL team could go 16-0-0 by scoring just 16 more points than their opponents. Okay, enough prologue.
Surprises…
The three best teams in the NFL are the Cowboys, the Patriots and…
The Eagles.
No, not Don Henley, Glenn Frey, Joe Walsh and company. The Philadelphia Football Eagles.
Dallas (9.8) , New England (8.7) and Philadelphia (7.3) are all averaging more than a touchdown a game than their opponents. There’s a fairly significant drop off to the fourth best team, Denver (5.0).
What does it mean? Probably nothing for 2016. Philadelphia is 0-3-0 in the NFC East which will be difficult to overcome. Still, if I were an Eagles fan who knew a Giants fan, I’d see if I could get favorable odds (at least 4-1) on which team manages a wild card spot.
Elite Teams…
There are nine teams that average more than a field goal scored than their opponents.
- Dallas (9.8)
- New England (8.7)
- Philadelphia (7.3)
- Denver (5.0)
- Arizona (4.7)
- Kansas City (4.1)
- Seattle (3.9)
- Buffalo (3.8)
- Atlanta (3.7)
You might think Oakland (2.4), the Giants (-0.2) and Houston (-3.0) should be on the list based on their won-lost records but nah. Not that the Raiders are total outliers and they’re riding a three-game winning streak.
What does it mean? It sucks to be San Diego (1.4), playing in the AFC West with Denver, Kansas City and Oakland.
The Dregs…
There are seven teams giving up a field goal or more than their opponents…
- Cleveland (-12.6)
- San Francisco (-10.7)
- Chicago (-8.2)
- Jacksonville (-7.2)
- New York Jets (-6.5)
- Los Angeles (-3.8)
- Houston (-3.0)
Okay, we knew Cleveland and San Francisco were terrible; they definitely pass the eye test. I was a little surprised (albeit pleasantly) to see the Jets on this list, though. Okay, not that surprised. They are 3-7-0, after all. Perhaps I mistakenly took a rush of schadenfreude to the brain for surprise.
In terms of being terrible, I suppose Tampa Bay (-2.9), Cincinnati (-2.6), Indianapolis (-1.9) and Green Bay (-1.2) deserve honorable mention.
What does it mean? Bill O’Brien is probably safe in Houston. The Texans are 6-3-0 and sit atop an organizationally dysfunctional, psychologically weak and morally bankrupt AFC South. Hue Jackson is probably safe in Cleveland because the Browns aren’t focused on wins and losses this year. Chip Kelly, John Fox, Gus Bradley, Todd Bowles and Jeff Fisher should all be fired and the sooner the better.
Predictive Analytics are an Oxymoron...
A few random thoughts I thought while looking at these numbers…
Miami looks better than they are. They’re riding a four-game winning streak that was fueled by three home games and will probably extend that to six games with the games against two of the worst teams in the NFL - the Rams and 49ers - coming up. After that, they travel to Baltimore to face a very good defense and a Ravens team battling for the AFC North. That will be followed by a visit by an Arizona Cardinals team that has actually played better than their 4-4-1 record. After that it’s all division opponents; roadies against the Jets and Bills followed by a home game against the Patriots. I’d set the over/under on wins at 9 and bet the under for the Dolphins.
When the Texans are bad, they’re awful. With mitigating circumstances. The Texans have three losses, all on the road, to three pretty good teams; 27-0 at New England, 38-13 at Minnesota and 27-9 at Denver. As noted in previous posts, 8-8-0 may well win the AFC South but if the Texans can hold serve at home and win just one road game they could run away with the division at 9-7-0. That won’t be easy, not with the Raiders coming to Houston, er, Mexico this Monday night. That MNF game could be a statement win for the Texans or it could leave them with must win road games against Indianapolis and Tennessee in December to make it to the playoffs.
Winning the AFC West is critical because Wild Card teams have to play on the road. It looks like both AFC Wild Card teams will come from the West. Maybe that’s not such a big deal for the Raiders, who’ve gone 5-0-0 as the visiting team thus far. The Chiefs and Broncos, on the other hand, have 3-2-0 records on the road.
Finally, none of this will matter a few weeks from now. Injuries, matchups and an unpredictable bounce of the oblate spheroid will have far more to do with the pigskin future of your favorite team.
It’s why they play the game.
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