You know about the so-called "Patriots Problem" don't you? That problem the Other 31 teams have beating the Patriots? Or maybe I should say, believing they can beat the Patriots.
New England has been renting space in the heads of the coaches, players, and fans of the Other 31 for a while now. Back in the aughts, Mike Vrabel once noted that during the anthem, he would look across the field and see the look on their opponent's faces and know that they'd already won. If you're a football fan living west of the Connecticut River, you have an Indiana Jones "why is it always snakes?" feeling deep in your amygdala about the Patriots.
Let's break down the unfavorable terms of the lease agreement Belichick, Brady and the Patriots holds on that condo in your head…
Cheaters
We won't bury the lede.
Plenty has been written about this. Just Google "Patriots Cheating" when you've got nothing else to do with the rest of your life.
Cheating provides a juicy post-game rationalization for players and fans alike but more importantly it has become an effective pre-game distraction for coaches and players, especially when they visit Gillette Stadium. Is the visitor's locker room bugged? (And if you think it is, what makes you think the hallways outside the locker room aren't?) Is the Gatorade served up at a disgustingly European room temperature? Is the in-game communications system for opposing coaches being broadcast on WEEI?
How real and effective is the Patriots reputation as Cheatriots? Check this out from a New York Times post from just before Super Bowl 51 titled "Why Do Fans Excuse the Patriots' Cheating Past."
Outside New England… The Patriots are considered unrepentant cheaters, caught (and punished) more than once for their football crimes. Yet they keep winning, with a roster full of retreads and spare parts. Could they be skirting the rules even today, in new and undetected ways? Many football fans - nearly all of them outside New England - would not be surprised.
Of course you're not surprised! Of course the Patriots are cheating in new and undetected ways!
The Rule Book
Bill Belichick appears to be one of the few - if not the only - head coach in the NFL to have actually read the NFL rule book. For whatever reason, this is not viewed as exemplary; if anything, it's often used as another example of cheating (see, Eligible/Ineligible formation used against the Ravens in the 2014 playoffs). Perhaps it's the anti-intellectual/anti-science attitude that's become a societal norm here in land of America's Game but this one is hard for me to understand.
So I won't try.
The fact that the NFL has rewritten the rule book - everything from the Tuck Rule to Leaping with the Eligible/Ineligible formation in between - in the wake of Patriots victories surely feeds into the notion that the diabolical and devious Belichick and his staff are doing something unfair. And even as the NFL changes rules, it's inevitable Belichick will understand the subtler implications of that rule and use it to his team's advantage.
Take the rule change to put the ball on the 25-yard line (instead of the 20) when a player takes a touchback on a kickoff. The rule was ostensibly put in place to reduce kickoff returns, deemed to be inherently more dangerous to player safety than all other football plays, encouraging return men to take a knee and gain the 5 yard bonus.
So what did Belichick do?
He had his kicker work on placing kickoffs inside the 5-yard line, near the sideline, with a little extra hang time, giving his coverage unit the opportunity to tackle the return man inside the 20.
There seems to be a belief that Belichick has some Harry Potter-like ability to change the words on the pages of the NFL rule book, in game, any time Tom Brady points to his helmet and yells out "Alert! Alert!" It's a dark incantation, a literal pigskin cheat code.
It's also how Belichick changes the details of the lease agreement for that pigskin condo in your head. You don't remember the pool and tennis court access codicils? Are you sure?
Luck
This is my favorite explanation for the Patriots success. It's anecdotal, irrational, and cannot survive any objective, factual analysis. Then again, we live in a post-fact reality.
In fact (if I may), when luck comes up, it's usually in this "Mad Libs" context: The Patriots were lucky that (NFL team or player) did (self-destructive act).
Or: The Patriots were lucky (NFL Coach) thought he could outsmart Bill Belichick.
"Luck is the residue of design."
-Branch Rickey.
Were the Patriots lucky the Seahawks dialed up that slant pass or was that moment simply the residue of design. If you're a Pats fan, it came as no surprise to find out in "Do Your Job" that New England had practiced defending this very play call in preparing for Seattle's goal line offense.
You probably weren't surprised to see the Patriots' defense was better prepared for the Steelers' fake spike play that the Steelers themselves. I guess they were lucky that Pittsburgh's coaching staff hadn't prepared their team for this end game scenario. I can't help but thinking that had the roles been reversed that everyone on New England's offense would've been on the same page.
Of course, if Brady's throwing a slant on that play it's going to Gronkowski (except he's throwing that sweet fade that we saw on the 2-point conversion). Or a wheel route to James White. Or a back of the end zone crosser to Brandin Cooks. Maybe a bubble screen to Amendola.
Okay, yes; this is just my passive-aggressive way of saying the Patriots would've had a well-designed, more than one receiver running a route, everybody knows what they're doing because they practiced the play for that specific scenario.
But I'm happy if the rest of the NFL universe thinks it's luck. After all, you can't prepare for luck.
The Steelers said some crazy and brave things after the game and into this past week. I have no doubt that at this moment, they believe they can go to Foxborough in January and win. But if or when it comes down to making a play in the 4th quarter, you know there will be that shadow of a doubt, a hoodie-wearing boogeyman there in the corner with just the trace of a smile on his shadowy face, a smile that says "I know something you don't." A Pittsburgh coach will overthink the call; a Steelers' player will try to do too much and those retreads and spare parts will be ready and waiting.
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