Small Changes

There aren't many teams in the NFL with a 12-3-0 record and a chance to lock up home field throughout the playoffs that would see themselves as underperforming or average or even disappointing.

Welcome to New England.

It's the details, the little things that matter…

In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

If a team with Tom Brady, two 1,000 yard receivers (Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks) the most efficient running back in the league (Dion Lewis), a Top 10 scoring defense and one of the better special teams units in the NFL needed some good news, the Patriots are getting it.

They should get home field this Sunday with a win over the Jets, who are seriously considering allowing Christian Hackenberg to touch a football in the field of play this weekend. (Let's pencil in that home field advantage, shall we?) Nearly as important to their long-term goals, the Pats have already secured the all important bye week which will allow some of their walking wounded to heal up for the playoffs.

DT Alan Branch, LB Kyle Van Noy, and WR Chris Hogan are key pieces for the Patriots who have spent most of December on the sidelines. Van Noy has become Rob Ninkovich 2.0. He may not look like anything special but the defense is markedly better with him on the field. Van Noy is that small change in initial conditions resulting in Matt Patricia being able to play other defenders to their strengths. Super Bowl hero RB James White missed the first game of his career due to injury last week; Swiss Army Knife RB Rex Burkhead has been out with a knee injury that sidelined him just as he was turning into an offensive butterfly, allowing Josh McDaniels to disguise offensive intent and create mismatches as Burkhead was scoring touchdowns both running and catching the ball.

Another two weeks of rest could make all the difference in their return for the playoffs.

Just this week, WR Malcolm Mitchell returned from IR; he could be activated as early as this weekend's game.

We'll see how it goes (one of my favorite Belichickisms) but the recent pick up of James Harrison could be a butterfly for the Patriots. Best Case: Think of how Chris Long was used in 2016 - 12 to 15 high leverage snaps on passing downs. This can only help edge defenders Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise, Jr. as they can play fewer snaps and gain a conditioning edge in late game scenarios. The entire defense will feed off Harrison's famed intensity.  

As if that wasn't enough…

Injuries have forced the Patriots to sign WR Kenny Britt (still intriguing, a 6' 3" tall butterfly - and from Rutgers!) and for Brady to complete passes to Britt, WR Phillip Dorsett (still fast) and (yes) Dwayne Allen (jimmies on the sundae for their blocking TE). We've even gotten a peek at rookie TE Jacob Hollister along the way.

Quick Aside: Do we really need to look any further for an explanation for Brady's underwhelming December? He loses Hogan and Burkhead (on top of the preseason loss of Julian Edelman, of course), has to incorporate new receivers on the fly and it isn't supposed to affect the offense? I mean, thank the pigskin gods for Dion Lewis! Brady can elevate and win with lesser talents but it doesn't always look pretty. Kind of like what we've seen over the last 4-5 games.

On defense, it seems like every week a guy you've never heard of - DL Eric Lee, LB Marquis Flowers - turns in a small data sample that projected to a full season would earn a Pro Bowl nod. I don't necessarily want to count on Eric Lee, Marquis Flowers, Johnson Bademosi, Ricky Jean Francois, Jacob Hollister, Cameron Fleming or LaAdrian Waddle - let along Cole Croston - but it's good to know they'll be ready to do their jobs.

Small changes - a whole lot of them - are coming for the New England Patriots and could very well result in yet another Super Bowl run.