Friday, December 22, 2017

They're All Big Games

Can you believe Steelers' players are still talking about last week's game against the Patriots?

Can you imagine any Patriots' player talking about anything but the game with the Bills this week?


To be fair, everyone is still talking about Pittsburgh's 27-24 loss to New England (remember, the gridiron cognoscenti have agreed this was a Steelers' loss, not a Patriots victory) so it's kind of hard for anyone in western Pennsylvania to ignore it. Unless your head coach is Bill Belichick, of course. Belichick would be all like "on to Houston" and he'd be right.

The most important game on the schedule is the next one.

If I may take just a quick peek in the rear view for context: After the Monday Massacre in Miami, I refuse to take the Bills lightly. I think the Patriots need to play their best game of the season this Sunday. A balanced offense featuring a heavy dose of three tight ends, fullback James Develin lead blocking, and Dion Lewis and Mike Gillislee toting the rock. Brady being Brady (300/3/0). TDs to Gronk, Cooks and White. Dictating field position through the kicking game. A defensive effort that keeps the Bills out of the red zone let alone the end zone. A blocked kick. A return for a score. Complimentary football. All three phases.

That has to be the mindset for the Patriots against the Bills.

Of course, that's exactly how they're approaching this Sunday's game.

That doesn't guarantee victory, of course. I think the Bills have some idea of what's on the line for them this Sunday, too.

We should see some old-timey football this Sunday with a heavy emphasis on the running game from both teams. Buffalo's best player is LeSean McCoy and running the ball, keeping the clock moving and Tom Brady on the sidelines is probably the best game plan for the Bills as they face the 26th ranked rushing defense of New England that's still missing Alan Branch. The Patriots will probably look to take advantage of the Bills 25th ranked rushing defense as well. If I was going to make a prop bet on this game I'd say the Patriots will go for it on 4th and 1 and try to convert on the quick trap out of the power I formation, right up the gut with their newly minted Pro Bowl fullback, Develin. Belichick loves that play. It's about as fundamental as football gets. I remember it being one of the first plays we learned playing in middle school. I guess it is a kid's game after all.

Having said all of that, I think the game will still be decided by the quarterbacks. Tyrod Taylor on a bootleg; a truly scary prospect with Kyle Van Noy injured. Tom Brady on play action. Cooks deep on a go up the sidelines but wait! Gronk comes off his block and goes straight up the seam. Brady puts it on his hands and he high steps it into the end zone for the score and the spike!

But really, what do I know?  

Perhaps that's the best part. I don't know what will happen. Will this Patriots team capitalize on their emotional and gutsy win over the Steelers? Will they validate their status as odds on favorites for a return trip to the Super Bowl with a blowout win? Or will this be a grinder where they once again make just one more play than their opponents?

We'll all have to wait and see.

Oh, and I have one more prop bet for this Sunday.

If Jimmy GQ and the 49ers pull off the upset and defeat the Jaguars this Sunday, conspiracy theorists will posit that Belichick circled this game as he was talking to John Lynch and making the trade that sent Garoppolo to San Francisco for a 2nd round draft pick.

And if the Steelers also lose to the Texans, with Roethlisberger, Haley, and Tomlin getting into it on the sideline, having to be separated by other players and coaches, it will be yet another example of the Patriots not just beating a team, but breaking them.

But I digress.

The only thing that really matters is what the Patriots do this Sunday.

Everything else will take care of itself. Because it always does.

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