First there was the afterglow. If I smoked I'm sure I would've lit one up. Eventually, though, you come down from that high. Post-Super Bowl depression? I'm not sure depression is the right word. Okay, yes, it's the right word. No more football till when? Wait! Don't tell me!
The offseason leaves us little choice but to repeat ourselves. Cap casualties, free agents, draft prospects will be considered, reconsidered, dismissed, become "on second thought" think pieces and so on. What else can we do until the pigskin present finally encounters the inevitable future?
The Garoppolo Supremacy
I think we have a mind-numbingly understanding of the bifurcated future for Jimmy G pretty well by now. Not to go all Schroedinger's Cat but he'll stay or he'll go. Each time we open the box we get a different answer. Or the same answer.
Bill Belichick understands the market forces of the NFL better than anyone. You can argue circumstances and relative levels of urgency but the Vikings set the bar for QB rendition when they gave up a 1st and 4th for Sam Bradford. For Belichick, that has to be the minimum bid. The Browns, Bears and 49ers have to understand that, too, as Adam Schefter has leaked the Patriots' value proposition a number of times over the last two months. Anything less than a 1st and a 4th and Belichick will be more than happy to hang onto his low deductible insurance policy for Tom Brady.
The GMs for the Browns, Bears and 49ers may think they have some leverage - if Garoppolo leaves in free agency after the 2017 season, the Pats will only get a 3rd round compensatory pick in return - but they really don't. Belichick is always playing the long game. What if the Patriots win Super Bowl 52 and Brady decides to listen to Gisele and retire?
Okay, Tom Brady isn't retiring after back-to-back Lombardis. Back-to-back-to-back? Maybe.
I digress.
The point is the Browns, Bears and 49ers have no leverage. They have to decide if they are going to pay up for Garoppolo or if they're going to roll with Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer, Deshaun Watson or... well, yeah that's probably the list. If you're a GM and you can talk yourself into Mitch Trubisky as the next Andrew Luck then I wish you all the best in your future endeavors.
So, what's going to happen with Jimmy Garoppolo? Nothing.
Okay, the prodigal son narrative for Garoppolo going to Chicago is a nice story and sure, Kyle Shanahan needs a quarterback exactly like Jimmy G in San Francisco and yes, the Browns have been desperate to find a quarterback since Otto Graham (I'm only exaggerating a little) but Garoppolo won't be leaving Foxborough unless there's another Teddy Bridgewater scenario in the upcoming preseason.
Trading for Garoppolo comes with expectations of near-term if not immediate success. That probably isn't going to happen and not because Jimmy G doesn't have the goods. If you've got the draft assets to trade for Garoppolo your team probably sucks. It doesn't matter who you run out at quarterback, getting to 8-8-0 next year is probably wildly optimistic. Winning 6 games is probably wildly optimistic. If you're trading for Garoppolo you only need to cast a jaundiced eye in the direction of the Texans and the Brock Osweiler 20-car pile up on Interstate 10. And Houston made the playoffs, something that isn't happening for the Bears, Browns or 49ers in 2017.
You're making a career-limiting move if you're the GM who trades for Garoppolo and your team wins 5 games or less. Add to that the fact you gave up a high draft pick (and more) to get Jimmy G and may well have mortgaged your team's future. If Garoppolo goes full on Osweiler you're starting over. If he plays well despite the 3-13-0 finish, you're going to have to pay up while a mob of torch and pitchfork bearing fans is marching on the stadium, unsure as to whether they want to kill you first or make you watch as they kill Garoppolo and then kill you.
Think of it this way. Given the talent on your roster, could Tom Brady get your team to 9 wins or better? If the answer is no, you don't trade for Jimmy G. Seriously, what's the point?
It will be far less risky to your job security as a GM if you draft your QB of the future because the expectations are going to be greatly reduced. Your team goes 4-12-0 with a few flashes of actual competent quarterback play - a win over a divisional rival at home, a game by your rookie QB with 300+ yards passing or a game with 0 INT - and everyone is happy. Plus you're still drafting in the top 5-10 spots and can put some more talent around your quarterback of the future while he still has that new quarterback smell.
I'm sure this is going to disappoint those good citizens of Patriots Nation who've been counting on making a splash in the draft but let's be real. Belichick is going to trade down - or more likely out - anyway.
The Man in the Hightower
I don't think there's a Patriots fan who doesn't want to see Dont'a Hightower wearing the Flying Elvis on his helmet in 2017. And 2018. And 2019. As long as Tom Brady is playing we want to see Hightower leading the New England defense. I get the pigskin nerds who say there's no such thing as clutch; clutch is just a small data sample. Well, maybe Hightower's nickname should be Small Data Sample because it seems like he's always making plays when the Patriots need them most. Alright, I'm already hating SDS and I just made it up. How about Mo as in Momentum? Or Prime or OP as in Optimus Prime because he's a game changer? You know, Transformer? See what I did there? No?
Okay, I'll stop. Pretty sure his teammates call him High. That's really not too bad.
I hope that just like Devin McCourty a couple of years ago, Belichick will decide to pay up. Having said that and having watched how Belichick manages the New England roster, I believe there's only so far he'll go in terms of years and guaranteed money. I fear there's a team out there willing to outbid the Pats for Hightower. He's a great player, a small data sample playmaker, he's got Super Bowl cred, he's a locker room leader and there's never been a whiff of scandal associated with his name. He's had a few games lost to injury but he's also played hurt. So add tough guy to the list. And he won't have any offseason surgeries this year so he'll come to camp ready to go.
So, what happens?
First, let me check to see if the Pats have announced resigning Hightower. I'll be right back…
Nope.
If the Patriots don't sign Hightower to a new deal by March 5th, I would expect Belichick to put the franchise tag on Hightower. There will be chatter about giving both sides time to work out a long-term deal but I think a tag-and-trade is a far more likely outcome.
I don't know how much Hightower or any current player in the NFL really cares about a legacy or their place in pigskin history. As a fan, I want to see Hightower play his entire career for the Patriots and as a white collar, middle-class cubicle monkey, I can't fathom what I'd do after I spent the first $7,000,000. But this isn't high school and he isn't playing with his hometown friends and neighbors. It isn't college, there isn't a homecoming game and he isn't a kid anymore. This is professional football and he's playing with co-workers. He's already got two Super Bowl rings. He's 26-years old and this is very likely his last big contract. He owes it to himself and his family to max out on a multi-year deal. Sure, the franchise tag means Top 5 money but just for one year and like every other NFL player, Dont'a Hightower is just one play away from his career being over. I don't see him taking a "hometown" discount and I can't blame him for that.
In this case, I don't think Belichick has the leverage either with Hightower or a potential tag-and-trade partner. He might get a reasonable return from a team run by ex-Pats like Detroit or Tampa Bay who have an appreciation for what Hightower could mean to their teams. I have no idea what those deals might look like in draft picks or players or whether they have the cap space to sign Hightower to a long-term deal but acquiring Hightower would obviously be a transformative deal for either of those teams. It would put the Lions or the Buccaneers in the conversation for their divisions despite the presence of The Great Aaron Rodgers in the NFC North and the defending NFC Champs in the NFC South.
Could New England get back to the Super Bowl without Hightower? Yes, of course. I'd feel a lot better about their chances, though, if the Patriots sign Hightower to a multi-year extension. In fact, I'd be tempted to book travel and hotel accommodations for SB52 the next day.
I hope it happens; I just don't think it will.
(And yes, that's a reverse jinx.)
Secondary Concerns
There's a chance the Patriots could lose two Rutgers' grads this offseason as both Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon are free agents. Most pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have already punched Ryan's and Harmon's tickets out of town. I'm not going to argue with that.
Like Hightower, Ryan and Harmon have two rings and they are both also 26-years old. They seem to be small data sample playmakers, too. Ryan's pick in the Denver game was one of the signature plays of the 2016 season and Harmon has made it a habit of coming up with game-sealing interceptions during his tenure with New England, including the home game against Miami this season. If they're ever going to cash in, now is the time to do that.
What hurts is that these two players appear to be entering their prime and unfortunately for them they might experience losing more times next year than they have over the last three years in New England.
I'll miss them but yeah; they're gone.
I guess there's always the compensatory picks the Pats will get in 2018.
The Black Unicorn
Martellus Bennett's recent comments about his post-football life goals has some of us (yes, me) feeling a little more hopeful New England can retain his services for the 2017-18 seasons. I think he was sincere in his in-season comments about how much better it feels to win than to rack up fantasy stats. Not to mention the tears of joy he shed following a Super Bowl win. All of that is a consideration but so is cash flow.
Martysaurus Rex has the ring and he showed he still has some gas in the tank in 2017. He's ranked as the #1 free agent among tight ends but he is 29-years old and has 10 years of wear on the tires.
If it's me (as noted above), it would be hard to trade the intrinsic value (winning, winning and winning) of playing for the New England Patriots for the extrinsic value (several millions of dollars) to lace them up for the Jacksonville Jaguars or Los Angeles Rams but I'm not a 29-year old tight end looking at the end of his playing career with big dreams that are going to require venture capital.
As a fan, I certainly hope he signs with New England. I'd still like to see that 2TE offense with Martysaurus and Gronk.
Sentimental Favorites
Repeating the obvious: Danny Amendola could come back in 2017 if he reworks his contract. Again.
Amendola is 31 and it seems to make sense that he'd rather play for less in New England than take his chances on the open market at this point in his career. Then again, I'm not a 31-year old wide receiver looking straight down the barrel of pigskin mortality. His versatility and clutch play in the playoffs and Super Bowl has helped most of Patriots Nation forgive Amendola for never being the next Wes Welker. Having said that, I don't think most of Patriots Nation is going to shed a tear at Amendola's farewell party. Best wishes and thanks for the memories Danny!
There are a few other factors at work, though. Amendola looks to be #4 on the depth chart behind Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell, who has me wishfully thinking of Deion Branch. (Hence, the need for Amendola to take a pay cut.) What Belichick and his staff saw in Michael Floyd is also something of a wild card (if he's going to sign a club-friendly deal, of course). Floyd clearly wants to come back to New England and despite his off-field problems does have mad skills. There's also Devin Lucien who took a redshirt rookie season but has the size and college highlight reel to intrigue. My quick count from a Google search says Lucien was named a practice player of the week 8 times during the 2016 season.
I think I just talked myself into saying goodbye to Danny Amendola.
The good news? The man has options.
There's no touchdown celebration greater than LeGarrette Blount posing with the End Zone Militia. I look forward to seeing it a few more times in 2017.
Blount may be limited in his skill set; he's something of a throwback to the days when fullbacks actually carried the football. He's not really a factor in the passing game, though he did catch 7 of the 8 passes thrown his way in 2016. Having said that, there aren't many backs who can do what the allegedly 250-pound running back can do; he's got the strength and determination to carry six defenders for five yards and the speed and athleticism to get to the edge and hurdle a safety in full stride. I also don't think the Patriots are worried about a bidding war for Blount's services. He's 30-years old and for whatever reason, LG only seems to work in the Patriots offense.
Early mock drafts have Belichick taking Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey at #32 but I don't see that happening. Blount may be unlikely to repeat his career bests in yards and TDs in 2017 but with Blount (assuming he signs), James White and Dion Lewis, I can't see Belichick taking a running back until Day 3 of the draft, if then.
Speaking of the draft...
I'm Getting Older, Too…
After his underwhelming first year in Foxborough, there don't seem to be many Patriots observers who think Shea McClellin is the next Rob Ninkovich who was never quite the next Mike Vrabel. Ninko is the oldest non-kicker, non-Brady player on the New England roster at age 33. He is savvy and versatile but that positive PED test is a telltale sign of a player who knows he's lost a step.
If McClellin isn't the answer (I wouldn't discount the possibility with a full year in the system) and Jabaal Sheard gets bought out by a desperate team with plenty of cap space then Belichick will have his eye on a player who could take on the LDE/OLB role Ninkovich has handled so reliably over the last 8 years. Maybe Takkarist McKinley, a player with similar measurables to Ninkovich and a player who got better every year of his college career. Or somebody none of us has heard of in the 4th round.
The Unknown Future Rolls Toward Us…
So, we don't know what we don't know, which is pretty much always the case. Unless you've got a time machine and you're visiting from the future, of course. In which case you bet the Patriots to cover and took a prop bet on overtime.
But again, I digress.
Hold on while I check one more time to see if the Patriots have announced a new deal with Dont'a Hightower…
Not yet.
Fingers crossed!
No comments:
Post a Comment