Sunday, February 26, 2017

Future Tense


Fool? I guess that's where I come in!


A few predictions for the offseason...

Goodell and the Other 31 Cock-Block a Garoppolo Trade
Forget one of the top three picks in the draft. The Patriots win the Super Bowl and get a top three pick? Roger Goodell and the Other 31 owners are going to let that happen. Forget a 1st and a 4th. There's no way Goodell allows the Patriots to recoup their Deflategate draft pick punishment. Even if it didn't keep New England from winning their fifth Lombardi Trophy, this has to be a point of wounded pride for Goodell who's fresh off the public humiliation of being booed off the winner's stage at SB51.

Let's consider a more or less reasonable and realistic scenario: The Browns trade the 12th pick in the first round to the Patriots straight up for Garoppolo. Given the risk/reward on both sides of that transaction, it's probably the best - as in wildest dreams best - offer New England could expect.

Even that is a "never gonna get it" scenario.

The Patriots already have 4 of the first 103 picks in the 2017 draft. Giving them 5 in the first 103 (and two of those in the 1st round) would set Bill Belichick up to do what he does best; move around the board and stockpile Patriots-specific talent. Remember when nobody understood the Duron Harmon pick, a guy who's now a free agent and likely to get starter money from a team like the Colts or Packers? Yeah, give me five more guys like Duron Harmon in the 2017 draft. Or how about a Joe Thuney, Malcolm Mitchell, Vincent Valentine and Elandon Roberts? Just hit on 4 of 5. I'd be good with that.

Goodell and the Other 31 owners simply cannot let a trade for Garoppolo happen that includes a 1st round pick and unless a 1st round pick is on the table, it simply isn't worth it to Belichick to give up his low deductible insurance policy for Tom Brady.

Franchise Tag and Trade Dont'a Hightower
If the Patriots can't sign Hightower to a new contract, they will at least want to control where he plays over the next five years, as in the NFC and preferably the NFC West. Hightower is not the kind of player you willingly risk having to play twice a year.

My working assumptions here…

First, I think Hightower wants to get to free agency and max out his earnings in what is likely his last high value contract. That means he isn't going to sign a new contract with New England before the market opens.

Second, neither New England nor Hightower wants the franchise tag. It's too much money in terms of the Belichick's roster management principles and there's no long term security from Hightower's perspective. Moving on from Hightower would no doubt have a short-term impact on the locker room but keeping an unhappy Hightower could affect the team over the course of the entire season.

If something is going to end badly, it's better it end quickly.

Finally, Belichick believes that no matter how great the individual player is, no player is greater than the team. (Okay, there's always an exception to every rule *cough* Tom Brady *cough*.) Belichick already has a number for Hightower. If that number isn't going to get a deal done, Hightower will be gone.

Cleveland, San Francisco and Tennessee have a shit ton of cap space. Washington, Jacksonville and Indianapolis have a boatload of Benjamins, too. Of those teams, San Francisco, Cleveland, Indianapolis and Washington need alien technology-level help on defense. There's a deal to be made there.

I'm going to say San Francisco. I think Dont'a Hightower has been haunting Kyle Shanahan's dreams ever since the Super Bowl. Is the 49ers' 2017 3rd round pick and a future 2nd too much to ask? (Yes.) A high 3rd now is better than a low 3rd round compensatory pick in 2018. Does that get a deal done? (Maybe.)

A New Wing Man for Rob Gronkowski
At Age 31, Martellus Bennett can't afford to turn down the best contract offered and that will not be coming from the Patriots. I'm going to miss him.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Rob Housler reanimated in New England even see Matt Lengel develop into a serviceable second tight end but Bill Belichick never puts all his eggs in one basket. There are credible, lower cost options to Bennett available in free agency.

I can see Belichick signing either Jack Doyle or Ryan Griffin even before Bennett is off the market. (You don't break up with Belichick; he breaks up with you.) While it would be fun to troll the Colts with a Doyle signing, Griffin has been playing for former Pats OC Bill O'Brien in Houston and would likely hit the ground running in Foxborough. The Texans don't have a lot of cap space and might not want to spend their money on a tight end. If you're Griffin you've got (a) a chance for a Super Bowl and (b) an opportunity to tell your grandchildren one day what it was like to play with Tom Brady if you sign with New England. Don't overthink this one, Ryan. You do want to win a Super Bowl, don't you?

The Deep Calls The Deep
Bill Belichick is sure to sign undervalued veterans in the second wave of free agency. It's a mortal lock he will move around the draft board and take a player that neither Mel Kiper, Jr.'s hair nor Todd McShay's sports coat has ever heard of and nobody has any tape on and whose YouTube highlights are so grainy and out of focus it looks like Super 8 home movies from the 70s. Belichick is also capable of making a move like the Randy Moss trade that is shocking and transformative but I don't see that happening this year because it's utterly unnecessary.

The Patriots are young and deep. Just ten players on the 53-man roster are 30 or older (one of them is kicker Stephen Gostkowski and another is Tom Brady, who shouldn't really count since he's playing like he's 27-years old). I wouldn't mind seeing the Pats keep free agent Alan Branch. Time will tell what happens with Rob Ninkovich, Sebastian Vollmer and Danny Amendola.

The Patriots clearly aren't in rebuild mode and I'm not even sure I'd say they'll reload so much as refactor as they begin again in 2017. While the fanboy in me wants to keep Martellus Bennett and the wishes I wasn't an atheist so I could pray that Dont'a Hightower signs a long-term deal with New England. However it goes down, it's hard to question Belichick's process given the outcomes. Maybe it's as simple as this; if you don't control the salary cap, the salary cap controls you.

And Bill Belichick has made the salary cap his bitch.

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