As much as everyone west of the Connecticut River doesn't want to hear it, the New England Patriots, the team that just won the Super Bowl, could be even better next year.
Here are just a few reasons why…
Second Year Leapers
The "Second Year Leap" is a thing. The step up in competition from college to the NFL will cause many to stumble. There are some rookies who contribute immediately but most take a year to adjust to the size of their opponents, the speed of the game and the demands of their new profession. Even for seasoned pros, joining a new team can be a challenge. New terminology, new concepts, new teammates to adjust to. In their second year, the game "slows down."
Looking over the Patriots roster and considering the second year leap (and a few other considerations), the team that just won the Super Bowl might be even better in 2017...
The Second Year Leapers...
Chris Hogan - Let's imagine Hogan playing better than he did in 2016. That feels pretty good, doesn't it? It's definitely stimulating the pigskin pleasure center of my brain. It will definitely be tough topping his 17.9 YPA mark. How many 1,000 yard receivers can you have on one team, anyway? Julian Edelman, Hogan and Gronk? Malcolm Mitchell is getting to 600 next year and White will, too. I digress. I'm looking forward to Hogan and Brady working on the back shoulder throw in 2017. And the double-move off the back shoulder.
Malcolm Mitchell - The next Deion Branch? Yes, please! A preseason injury almost derailed Mitchell's rookie year. He started slowly but came up big after Thanksgiving including a huge second half in SB51. The biggest stage the NFL has to offer was clearly not too big for Mitchell. I can hardly wait to see him build on that performance in 2017. It's greedy to think Mitchell could join Edelman, Hogan and Gronk in the 1K Club, isn't it? Yes? Just checking.
Elandon Roberts - Reports have the surprising and promising rookie linebacker back in Foxborough working out already. No days off? No days off.
Eric Rowe - Only Julio Jones could've made that catch over Rowe in the Super Bowl. There's only one Julio Jones so I think Rowe should be okay. With a full year in the Patriots system he should be better than okay.
Joe Thuney - A Day 1 starter as a rookie. More than a few pigskin pundits and pundits consider Thuney the weak link on New England's offensive line and I've already seen seven-round mock drafts targeting potential replacements but I think it's going to be difficult to move Thuney out. I say he makes the leap.
Vincent Valentine - Valentine made some big plays despite limited opportunities in 2016. I expect his snap count to grow in 2017 as he becomes a full partner in the Patriots defensive tackle rotation.
Cyrus Jones - He couldn't be worse. Seriously. Let's just say the former 2nd round pick out of Alabama is highly motivated to put 2016 in the rear view.
Devin Lucien - Maybe this is a reach but… Could the 8-time practice player of the week replace Amendola on the wide receiver depth chart in 2017? Okay, yes, it's a reach but if Lucien is tearing it up in preseason you can count on me saying I told you so.
Second Year Second Thoughts…
Jacoby Brissett - We want to feel good about that Jimmy Garoppolo trade, don't we? Brissett doesn't have to suddenly look like he's ready to start. A few flashes in preseason; that's all we ask.
Trey Flowers - Stretching the "second year" thing just a bit here. Technically, 2017 will be Flowers' third year in the NFL but his rookie season was a injured reserve redshirt season. Flowers came on strong in the second half of 2016, had a big game in Super Bowl 51 and I think it's fair to say the good citizens of Patriots Nation are expecting big things from Flowers in 2017.
Dion Lewis - Again, stretching that second year thing with Lewis. In his case, it's all about that second year coming back from a serious knee injury. It generally takes two years to regain confidence in the reconstructed ligaments. Look for Lewis to return to his 2015 form in 2017.
Second Year Leap Due Diligence..
Even with all of the players noted above, that's right, there's more. There's Michael Floyd, who could come back on a one-year prove it deal. I'd rather keep Danny Amendola (or sign DeSean Jackson) but I'm open to Floyd coming back to Foxborough in 2017. There's D.J. Foster, who will probably play himself onto some other team's roster in the preseason. Maybe Woodrow Hamilton works his way into a larger role in the defensive tackle rotation, too. I'll be happy to see Ted Karras get plenty of snaps at center during the preseason and play his way into a C/G backup role. Some players don't need to make a leap so much as take a step up.
I expect Shea McClellin to make more plays in 2017 but I'm not ready to part ways with Rob Ninkovich, yet. McClellin and Kyle Van Noy are best viewed as situational players; they just need to do their jobs a little bit better in their second year in New England.
They'll look even better lining up next to Dont'a Hightower, of course.
Beyond the second year leap, a couple of other thoughts...
The Patriots Have a 1st Round Draft Pick…
That's right. Roger Goodell has yet to figure out a way to take away the Patriots 2017 1st round draft pick.
Depending on how things play out with Jimmy Garoppolo, the Patriots could actually wind up with more than one 1st round pick. Or a much higher pick than #32. But let's say it's #32. Maybe the draft mockers are right and a player like Jabrill Peppers or O.J. Howard falls to New England but maybe they don't. Let's just assume the most realistic scenario. Bill Belichick will trade down and acquire multiple 2nd and 3rd rounders or possibly trade out for a 2018 1st rounder.
That will probably happen even if Peppers and Howard are still available. Okay, they both won't be. One of them will be drafted by the Jets (probably Howard) in order to keep him away from the Patriots and then a GM who fears for his job will overpay Belichick for #32.
Bottom line, Belichick has more chips this year than last. And remember, without a 1st rounder last year, he turned up a starting left guard (Thuney), a linebacker who totaled 45 tackles, 3 tackles for loss and a forced fumble (Roberts), a backup defensive tackle who produced a sack and a tackle for loss (Valentine), a 3rd string quarterback who won one of his two starts during Brady's suspension (Brissett, who played with a broken thumb in the loss) and a wide receiver who caught 6 of 7 passes thrown his way for 70 yards in the Super Bowl (Mitchell).
The Return of Rob Gronkowski…
The Patriots weren't supposed to be able to win the Super Bowl without Rob Gronkowski but they did. Yes, my fingers are crossed as I type this (no, not really) because there's no way any sane Patriots fan doesn't hold their breath every time he touches the ball but I'm looking for a Comeback Player of the Year kind of season from Gronk in 2017.
Now excuse me while I go touch wood three times.
It's the Only Reason I Need…
Now that Tom Brady has 5, he's going to want 6.
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