Speculating

It seems the good citizens of Patriots Nation have lost their collective shit. Suddenly, the football players on the New England roster – the team that just won the Super Bowl – aren't any good, at least not as good as all the football players on the rosters of the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. Those teams have all taken a step up and the Patriots have taken a step down. In case you forgot, they were lucky to win the Super Bowl. They're doomed. Might as well not even show up because why bother? Even the most optimistic of pigskin pundits and bobbleheads believe the Pats will struggle to win the AFC East in 2015. Super Bowl 50? Don't even go there. Don't even. Don't.

The good news? There isn't another franchise in the NFL that plays better with a chip on their shoulder than the New England Patriots.

 

I'm not stupid. (Well, I don't think I'm stupid but if I was stupid, would I know?) There is no replacement for Darrelle Revis and the Patriots rivals in the AFC East have made moves to improve. Does that mean all is lost? Hardly. Not a bad thing having Bill Belichick as your head coach at moments like this. Belichick is one of those coaches who will beat yours with his and then take yours and beat his. It won't be as sexy without Revis but I think he just might figure it out.

In the rush to throw dirt on the Patriots' collective faces, it strikes me the players still on the roster have been forgotten. It prompted me to ask these…

Top 10 Way Too Early Questions to Ask About the 2015 Patriots (in No Particular Order)

WTEQ #1: Can Cameron Fleming kick inside to guard?

Fleming was pretty effective on the outside as a "tackle eligible" and he played tackle in college but New England is pretty well set at the tackle position with Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon. Cannon has long been expected to move inside to guard but has never looked comfortable there and was part of the failed effort to replace Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell at the start of the 2014 season. Belichick may be looking for the next Logan Mankins with the #32 pick (or more likely, in rounds 2 and 3) but in a best case scenario, New England will upgrade at both guard positions. Fleming could provide a big body inside and help the offensive line deal with those big, bad men on the defensive lines in Buffalo, Miami and New York.

WTEQ #2: How good will Dominique Easley be in his sophomore season?

Bionic knees aren't quite the risk they once were and Easley probably tried to come back too soon. There's been no news on Easley's recovery which I'll take as good news. If Easley lives up to his draft status – combined with the addition of Jabaal Sheard – the Patriots may not miss Revis all that much in 2015. They certainly won't miss Brandon Browner's holding penalties. Assuming Easley's knees hold up (and yes, I'm building a vodun shrine devoted to his anterior cruciate ligaments), New England will be able together an athletic, disruptive pass rush with Easley, Sheard, Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins. And that should take some pressure off the defensive backfield.

WTEQ #3: Can Tim Wright carve out a meaningful role in his first full season in the system?

Wright flashed early on but appeared to fade as Danny Amendola stepped up down the stretch. There are only so many snaps to go around, of course, so I'm not going to read too much into that. What's more noteworthy from my perspective is Wright's hands. He caught 26 of the 33 passes thrown his way in 2015, a 78.79% success rate. (For Pats receivers with more than 20 catches, Julian Edelman was next best at 68.15%.) It's admittedly a small – though intriguing – data sample. Wright was also the anti-fantasy TE for the Patriots in 2014 as he vultured 6 TD receptions (3rd on the team). Amendola's return on a re-structured contract is more likely to affect his snaps than the Scott Chandler signing but neither of those developments augur well for a larger role for Wright in 2015.

Why do I think it's more likely Wright will be part of a trade package that brings a cornerback to New England?

WTEQ #4: Aaron Dobson, Brian Tyms or Josh Boyce – Who ya got?

The news that Dobson has been working his ass off to make his way back onto the field is most welcome, of course, but it's hard not to see him as one of those unfortunate athletes whose body simply is unable to withstand the stresses of the sport they play as they step up in competition from high school to college or from college to the pros. I hope not. Julian Edelman suffered a series of injuries at the beginning of his professional career, too. The Patriots offense has certainly been good enough but the addition of a reliable X-receiver playing outside the numbers could be that straw that breaks defenses backs.

As I said, I hope Dobson can be that guy but if I had to bet the mortgage on it, I'd put my money on Brian Tyms. Tyms showed he had some special teams value which gives him an edge over Dobson in terms of making the final 53. Yes, he's a shiny penny and he may well be a one trick pony but that one trick – taking the top off the defense – is a pretty good trick. Tyms had the best mark on the team at 16.4 yards per catch but that came on just 5 receptions.

Including Boyce on this list is probably another example of the triumph of hope over reason but it's not for nothing the Patriots brought him back to the practice squad. At 5' 11" Boyce is hardly the prototypical X-receiver and no, he hasn't shown anything so far that would lead you to believe he could be the next Steve Smith.

WTEQ #5: Will Michael Buchanan or Zach Moore develop into reliable contributors?

Perhaps a little more wishful thinking on my part but these two 6' 6" defensive linemen certainly look the part. I haven't totally given up on my Deacon Jones comp for Moore even as I'll readily admit that comparison is utterly ridiculous. Would I settle instead for Ty Warren? Yes I would. Buchanan seemed to be making progress before suffering an injury that ended his 2014 season early. He showed some value on special teams, too. If we can add either one of these promising young defensive linemen to the list above, the Patriots could have a defensive line that compares favorably with their AFC East rivals.

WTEQ #6: Is Malcolm Butler more than a one-hit wonder?

In a word, yes.

One play is the smallest of data samples but the game-winning INT isn't the only play Butler made in the Super Bowl, though it was clearly the most memorable. It's the narrative surrounding that play that makes me believe we'll see Butler in the starting lineup in 2015.

In that one play we got to see evidence of Butler's ability to play under pressure, his athleticism and his ability to convert practice reps into game day performance.

Butler had just given up that crazy "Lap Dance" reception that looked like it was going to cost the Patriots the Super Bowl (but even then he had the presence of mind to push Jermaine Kearse out of bounds). Somehow, two plays later, with the Lombardi Trophy hanging in the balance, the undrafted rooking from West Alabama made one of the greatest, clutchiest plays in Super Bowl history. He makes that play in part thanks to a closing burst that can only be compared to the Picard Maneuver. He showed pretty good ball skills in hanging onto that football, too. The rest of that play was all about the practice field (with Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Boyce playing Russell Wilson and Ricardo Lockette) and Butler's ability to convert recognition to reaction in fractions of a second.

Butler's play in the Super Bowl was no fluke.

Neither is he.

WTEQ #7: Is this the year Jake Bequette breaks out?

Yeah, I was just trying to see if you were still paying attention. The real way too early question I should be asking is what should we expect from Jabaal Sheard? I think Akeem Ayers should tell us everything we need to know here. Ayers started the season languishing on the bench in Tennessee and ended up on the field in Super Bowl 49. Looking at their career stats, Ayers and Sheard could be twins. Sheard will have the advantage of a full training camp to develop his role and let's hope it translates to Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones playing a little and a little better.

WTEQ #8: What Can RB Tyler Gaffney Bring To The Table?

There hasn't been a lot of chatter about Gaffney, who Belichick picked up when Carolina tried to slip him through waivers after the rookie from Stanford suffered a torn meniscus in training camp. Gaffney played at Stanford in a pro set and was one of the better running backs in the 2014 draft. (College highlight reels are basically just the greatest hits set to a NSFW rap soundtrack but for whatever it's worth, here's a link to Gaffney's highlights and his combine performance; note the three-cone drill time.) I think Gaffney can be special. The only thing that may hold him back is the fact the Patriots are absolutely loaded at running back with LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and perhaps the best third-string running back in the NFL in Brandon Bolden.

                                                                                                                     

WTEQ #9: Are Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington and Alonzo Dennard just so much chopped liver?

As we've readily admitted before, none of these guys are Darrelle Revis. As we've also noted before, almost nobody else is. Does that mean these guys can't play? Ryan had 5 picks in his rookie season. Arrington had 7 INT just a few years ago and did a great job against T.Y. Hilton in 2015. Dennard has been something of an enigma but did manage 3 INT and 7 passes defensed in his rookie year. At the very least, this is a serviceable group of defensive backs.

I think it's worth noting here for those bemoaning the fact the Patriots will need to put the pressure back on Tom Brady and the offense in 2015, the 2014 defense – even with Revis – couldn't carry the jocks of the 2003-04 defense. The signature game for that defense was probably the dominating 20-3 AFC Championship shutdown of Peyton Manning's Colts.

It was Brady who brought the Patriots back from 14 point deficits not once but twice against the Ravens in the divisional round.

It was Brady who brought the Patriots back from a 10 point deficit in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl.

All the New England defense needs to do is keep the game close.

WTEQ #10: Is Tom Brady Done?

No.