Doing Business

I'm trying not to panic. Really I am.

 

I did not see that coming. I was sure the Patriots were moving on from Stephen Gostkowski and his $4m+ cap hit. Naturally, New England placed the franchise tag on Gostkowski. Okay. Gostkowski is a weapon. They still call it football for a reason. Meanwhile, radio silence on Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty. Well, not exactly radio silence. Schefter says Revis will hit free agency, meaning, at the very least, no deal between Revis and the Patriots is imminent. If the Patriots are going to keep McCourty, will they need to give up on signing Revis? Will they (dare I say it) wind up losing both?

Did I mention I was trying not to panic?

Consensus amongst the local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads is that we shouldn't read too much into Gostkowski being tagged. (On the other hand, consensus amongst the local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads was that McCourty would get the franchise tag.) This is just the New England Patriots doing business. Gostkowski is one of the best (maybe the best) at his position. He's a weapon kicking field goals and kicking off. He's worth the franchise tag. Maybe a long-term deal is struck that reduces the cap hit by a million or so but now that it's happened it just makes total sense they would tag Gostkowski rather than McCourty.

It's unreasonable to expect a deal gets done with Revis and McCourty before the March 10th deadline. Both will hit free agency. That doesn't mean they won't wind up back in Foxborough. Belichick may be willing to pay fair market price to keep the band together. Or he may have already crunched the numbers with Nick Caserio and decided that a worst case scenario where Duron Harmon (or Logan Ryan) replaces McCourty and Malcolm Butler or a draft pick in a weak draft for cornerbacks (or the reanimated corpse of Alfonzo Dennard) will take Revis' place in the starting lineup and everything will be just fine.

That sounds crazy even to me.

It's harder, much harder for me to believe Revis will be back in a Patriots uniform in 2015. I hope New England can re-sign McCourty.

I'm not going to panic.

Plenty of time for that later.

Characterizations…

Earlier this week I listened with some bemusement as the crew on NFL AM noted how much more important character would be in the upcoming draft. Don't pigskin pundits and bobbleheads say that every year?

With firsthand experience as a Patriots' fan, I will agree that character is a factor inasmuch as you can't be on the field if you're in jail but I don't think character will ever trump talent when it comes to how NFL general managers build their roster. Jameis Winston seems locked into the #1 pick and Dorial Green-Beckham has made his way onto a number of mock drafts despite the bad choices they've made in the past and take full responsibility for now. Youthful indiscretion should not be confused with sociopathic tendencies, of course. On the other hand, it's a lot easier to read a police blotter than it is to assess the possibility a young man may one day kill someone.

There's a risk/reward calculus involved as well. Aaron Hernandez was drafted in the 4th round. Despite his obvious talent, he was considered a risk by many NFL franchises. Some franchises were simply not going to take a chance on Hernandez; New England decided the talent outweighed the risk given the value of a 4th round pick.

Perhaps it did – and that's not meant to justify the alleged murder of Odin Lloyd in any way. Let's say instead that Hernandez suffered a career ending injury after three years instead of being arrested for murder. Would anyone see that 4th round draft pick as a waste? I don't think so. I'm pretty sure that for those first three years half the GM's in the NFL were kicking themselves for not taking Hernandez in the 3rd round.

Character may even be less of a concern than the player's injury history. Would you rather draft a wide receiver who got popped for pot or a running back who's suffered multiple ACL injuries? I suppose my own college experience comes into play here. Everyone smoked marijuana, drank to excess and had sex they regretted as early as the next morning when I was in college. Most of us have gone on to be productive members of society. I guess we could've done that following multiple ACL surgeries, too, so I guess I don't really have a point here. Except for the obvious point that injuries, like character, are certainly factors taken into account when an NFL team is building their big board.

Character – and injuries – matter quite a bit more in 1st round than the 4th. It matters a whole lot more if that draft pick is supposed to be "the face of the franchise." But it clearly hasn't been enough to move Marcus Mariota ahead of Winston for that #1 pick. Okay, Mariota comes from a spread offense and it's clear that's a factor when comparing the two top quarterbacks of the future in this year's draft. It hasn't stopped Jets fans from spilling their beer and dropping their pizza in their laps as pigskin pundits and bobbleheads continue to mock Mariota to the NYJ at #6.

For the life of me, I don't understand why the Titans aren't making some noise about taking Mariota with the #2 pick if only to generate some interest in a quarterback-needy team trading up for the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner. Maybe that's actually happening. The Browns hold the #12 and #19 picks and they just signed the perfect bridge/mentor QB in Josh McCown. (Cleveland can't still be holding out hope that Johnny Manziel will become a franchise QB, can they?) What about Philadelphia? Why wouldn't they make a move to get the young man who was born to run Chip Kelly's offense? More importantly, why wouldn't Tennessee take Mariota? Zach Mettenberger? Seriously?

The character issue isn't limited to the draft, of course. The league is currently dealing with Adrian Peterson, Greg Hardy and (perhaps) Ray Rice and their return to the field. I'm troubled by the notion of the NFL as an arm of federal or state law enforcement even as I'm appalled by the outcomes in the cases of Peterson, Hardy and Rice but all three men have had their day in court. Men who've been tried and convicted of vehicular manslaughter – meaning somebody died due to their actions – have been given another chance to play in the NFL. Given that precedent, I'm not sure what the NFL can do to keep these three men off the field in 2015. Rice was in decline before he punched his then fiancé in the face so his future in football is probably a moot point. Peterson and Hardy, on the other hand, still look like they have productive years ahead of them. If there are franchises out there willing to deal with the baggage these men will bring with them, so be it.

Why Mock Drafts Should Be Mocked

One of the things I do when I check out mock drafts is to look at the picks projected immediately after the player mocked to New England. This year that means looking at mocks that give us a 2nd round (at least) this year with the Super Bowl Champion (it just doesn't get old saying that) Patriots picking at #32.

The WalterFootball.com mock draft for 2015 qualifies; as of February 26 it includes rounds 1 through 5.

WalterFootball's mock projects Ohio State WR Devin Smith to the Patriots at #32. Okay, there's Belichick BFF Urban Meyer involved and Smith had some eye-popping numbers in college. There's even the obligatory Tom Brady Needs Weapons meme ("they still need to find some help for Tom Brady in the receiving corps"). Here's where it gets interesting…

At the top of the 2nd round, WalterFootball projects Florida State guard Josue Matias at #33, Alabama guard Arie Kouandjio at #34 and Florida State T/G/C Cameron Erving at #36.

Remind me again what the Patriots' biggest need is?

Interior offensive line?

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding!

Don't they already have a kid from Florida State starting on their offensive line?

That's right! Center Bryon Stork!

The Patriots just won a Super Bowl where Tom Brady threw TD passes to four different receivers, all of whom are under contract for 2015 (yes one of those four is a tight end). Julian Edelman, JoJo LaFell and yes Danny Amendola look like they were genetically engineered to catch passes from Tom Brady in Josh McDaniels' offense.

So of course they're drafting a wide receiver with their 1st round pick! Just look at Bill Belichick's track record drafting wide receivers!

Okay don't look at that.

I'll admit it's nearly impossible to predict what Belichick will do in the draft but I'm having a hard time believing that if those three interior offensive lineman are available at #32 the Patriots would draft a wide receiver.

Is There Another Shoe?

Have we gone a whole week without a Deflategate leak?

Two weeks?

I don't know about you but I tend to fill any informational vacuum with worst case scenarios. In this case, though, I'm hard pressed to imagine how the Wells Report leads to any punishment for the Patriots.

The PSI readings from halftime of the AFCCG simply aren't enough. The league needs to find some evidence the Patriots tampered with those footballs. It doesn't help that Mike Kensil – a man everyone seems to believe has an ax to grind with Belichick and the Patriots – appears to be the man who took those halftime measurements, in terms of credibility. Speaking of credibility, the only person who's been found to have done anything illegal in connection with the handling of footballs is an NFL employee who was caught (in part) because the Patriots called attention to the use of unapproved footballs in the AFCCG.

An "elderly" employee taking a bathroom break?

That can't be enough, can it?

I'm hoping the Wells Report comes out soon. I've got my eye on Friday the 13th. (Because that would make it perfect.) In this multi-channel, instant-on, always-connected world we're plugged into, the Friday news dump doesn't really work the way it used to when print media, vinyl records and American Exceptionalism ruled the day. Anyway, it's a time-honored tradition so I expect the Wells Report to drop on a Friday.

The free agency feeding frenzy should provide additional cover.

Not that I expect the league to play the villain in the Wells Report. Just sincerely caring people who've had a hard on for the integrity of the game for more than four hours and really need to see a doctor.

The Friday dump will also allow pigskin pundits and bobbleheads the opportunity to shrug their shoulders over the weekend and move on to other matters by Monday without having to deal with too much embarrassment over their self-righteously indignant tantrums and adorably childish stamping of feet over underinflated footballs.

I just want it all to be over.