Lacking Clarity

Clarity is almost always in short supply. Perhaps it's because our brains crave it. We can never get enough of it. Even when we have a pant load of clarity we want more. Our brains have a primeval need to make sense of things.

Of course, you should always be careful what you wish for. We could have a whole lot of clarity shortly after 4:00pm this coming Tuesday.

 

As I've noted on many occasions, we Patriots' fans are typically dealing with a lack of information when it comes to the inner workings at 1 Patriots Place. While we understand this and even appreciate it as one of the foundational elements of the Patriots Way, it doesn't make it easy on us as we read pigskin pundits and bobbleheads give New England a 50/50 shot to retain Darrelle Revis or project Devin McCourty's price tag at $9m/year with only Robert Kraft's non-committal commitment the Patriots will be doing their best to keep their talented free agents.

I can also appreciate that the Patriots refuse to bid against themselves in these situations. New England will not overpay for talent. They are the masters of paying 50% of the cost for 80% of the production of the top players in the league. (This post on Patriots Pulpit is a great case in point.) That doesn't mean they won't pay top dollar for top talent as we saw with the Revis signing last year.

In this case, though, can New England afford to pay top dollar for both Revis and McCourty as it appears they will need to if they hope to keep the band together.

I have to believe Belichick already has Plan B, C and D mapped out; the next moves to be made if they keep McCourty but not Revis, if they keep Revis but not McCourty, if (deep breath) they lose both of them. I also believe Belichick already has the basic outline of offers for both Revis and McCourty; years, guaranteed money, annual cap hit. To think otherwise flies in the face of everything we have come to know about Belichick and his approach to team building.

How big is the drop off from Devin McCourty to Da'Norris Searcy? Belichick knows. How would defensive game plans change with Logan Ryan or Malcolm Butler starting at CB? Belichick knows that, too.

The consensus amongst pigskin pundits and bobbleheads that Revis and McCourty could get more money from other teams. If their decisions are based purely on extrinsic value, we should all start the process of grieving their losses. (Perhaps that's already started since most of us have been in a state of denial for the last month or more. Remember when the Pats were going to franchise McCourty and re-work Revis' contract long before we got to this point? Good times.) There is a certain intrinsic value to playing for the Patriots, of course; they are the Super Bowl champs, mortal locks for the playoffs year after year and one of the teams on a very short list of legitimate contenders for SB50. The question is how you convert that to a dollar figure. If the Patriots are willing to offer Revis $15m/year and $50m in guaranteed money, and the Jets offer $18m and $60m, what does Revis do? Some team is going to throw crazy money at Revis and the Patriots already know they aren't going to pay more than X. This is how they do business. It's worked pretty well, so far.

The same holds true for McCourty, of course.

I'm not feeling optimistic. If I was a betting man I'd say the most likely situation is the Patriots lose both Revis and McCourty (60%) followed by they keep one (30%) followed by they keep both (10%). I only wish I was throwing a reverse jinx out there.

On Wednesday I expect to read some rather unflattering things said about Belichick the GM. Expect incumbents Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler, Alfonzo Dennard and Duron Harmon to take a few bullets, too. There will be plenty of stories about how the Bills, Dolphins and Jets have closed the gap on the Patriots; the AFC East will be up for grabs!

Maybe.

Tuesday can't get here soon enough.