It’s
my understanding a football game will be played this coming Sunday.
So,
like many Patriots fans (okay, just the ones I’ve talked to), I’d like to see
the final score of Super Bowl XLIX read something along the lines of Patriots
73, Seahawks 3. I’d like to see the halftime score somewhere around 45-0. I
want tens of millions of people turning off their televisions after the
Patriots take the second half kickoff down the field for a 52-0 lead. I’d like
to read stories after the game about sponsors being pissed, the network being
pissed and all of them gathering up their torches and pitchforks to march on
Roger Goodell’s castle to ask him why he thought it would be a good idea to
provide the Patriots with the “us against the world” motivation to scorch the
earth, overpower the Seahawks and utterly destroy any semblance of a
competitive game.
Yes,
this is wishful thinking.
Quite
honestly, I’d be more than happy with a 14-13 win by the Patriots.
The Kitchen Sink Offense vs. The Legion of Boom
Defenses
don’t like to think; they like to react. The Patriots offense, with multiple
formations and personnel, unbalanced lines, eligible ineligibles, ineligible
eligibles, four offensive linemen or six offensive linemen, is designed to
cause confusion on the part of the defense.
These
non-standard formations make the defense think a little bit more than they’d
like. They may be slow to react or they may misread the formation which can
lead to match ups favorable to the Patriots. People may have forgotten this
while they’ve been gnawing on his ankle but Tom Brady is actually pretty good
with the pre-snap reads.
The
Patriots offense is famously (infamously?) unpredictable. Will they go run
heavy with LeGarrette Blount to start the game or will they spread things out
and throw the ball all over the field? We don’t know, of course, because that’s
what unpredictable means.
Here
are a few things I’ll be looking for…
Gronk splits out wide
to Richard Sherman’s side and the Pats run the football at Sherman…
We
haven’t heard much about Sherman’s injured elbow as some other storyline has
pushed that off the front page (Yemen?) but I have to believe Bill Belichick
and Josh McDaniels haven’t forgotten. (As for the question of targeting,
remember that this is why Belichick hates the injury report. It's a part of the game. Sherman has a bad elbow. Let him show he can tackle.) Sherman is a
self-proclaimed warrior and you can bet he will relish the challenge and want
to get all up in Gronkowski’s facemask so it won’t be like Gronk will have to
chase Sherman down. Gronkowski ain’t Jimmy Graham. He’s a willing and effective
blocker.
The
fact that Sherman plays one side of the field rather than locking down a #1
receiver and following him from one side of the formation to the other can and
should be turned to the Patriots’ advantage.
Watch for the Brian
Tyms’ cameo…
Some
teams simply give in to Sherman and line up their 4th or 5th
option to his side of the field, then concentrate their efforts and match ups
on the other half of the field. Lining up the little used Tyms would look a lot
like that. Aw shucks, Richard Sherman.
You’re just so great we won’t even try! Tyms does have some speed and is
one of the few outside the numbers deep threats on the Patriots’ roster.
Brady’s inability to consistently complete the deep ball is well documented;
the numbers argue Brady shouldn’t even try which is why I think they will. If
the long ball isn’t there – I’m not sure why Sherman would get safety help over
the top against Brian Tyms – then Gronk, Edelman or LaFell should be open
underneath. If Tyms gets behind Sherman and Brady delivers (or Sherman is
flagged for pass interference) it could be a mojo-changing play in the Patriots
favor.
That’s
if Tyms even dresses, of course.
Formation Voodoo…
I
expect Pete Carroll to have his team prepared for the four/five/six offensive
linemen configurations. As we all know by now, the Patriots use of these legal
offensive formations is really unfair (*cough* cheating *cough*), deceptive
(*cough* cheating *cough*) and the League should really do something about it
(*cough* cheating *cough*) so I would expect the officials will be taking extra
care to announce substitutions, eligible/ineligible players and to ensure
sufficient time (whatever that is) is given the Seattle defense to adjust. You
might think the Patriots would deemphasize the four/six offensive lineman
formations given these factors.
But…
New
England is getting better with these
tactics. This should hardly be unexpected given the number of game reps we’ve seen
from these formations during the playoffs. (We would likely have seen more of
the six offensive linemen formations after the Week 11 Colts game if Cameron
Fleming hadn’t gotten hurt.) The Patriots used their four offensive lineman
gambit for just a few (highly effective) plays against the Ravens. It seemed
like they played half their snaps in
the AFC Championship game against the Colts in some variation of four or six
offensive linemen, with unbalanced lines and tackle eligible formation. (Fleming,
who is most often the sixth offensive lineman for the Pats, logged 29 of 78
snaps according to Pats Pulpit, or 37% of New England’s offensive plays.) That’s
a pretty significant uptick. I only recall one negative play from these “gadget”
formations (the sack of Brady). Even a moment’s hesitation by Seahawks’
defenders with Nate Solder as a tackle eligible or Julian Edelman as an
ineligible (who drops back to take a lateral and throws a TD pass to LaFell)
could make the difference between no gain and a big play.
The Unlikely Hero…
With
the manifold and various options the Patriots have on offense and the obvious
focal points for the Seahawks defense (Gronk, Edelman, Blount, LaFell), we
could see a big game from Amendola, Shane Vereen or the sure-handed if
little-used Tim Wright. If I was a betting man I’d be looking for prop bets on
Vereen. He’s got the skill set to be the X-factor for New England on Sunday;
the speed to turn a wheel route into a touchdown. He’s been effective running
the ball out of the shotgun in what are essentially quick draws. Yeah. A big
game out of Vereen would go a long way toward a Patriots win.
God, Russell Wilson and Beast Mode vs. The Amoeba Defense
Okay,
I’m a huge Jamie Collins’ fan so I’ll be watching and waiting for him to do
Jamie Collins things.
First, stop Marshawn
Lynch…
This
is much easier said than done. The Patriots’ defensive line must win their
one-on-one battles with the Seahawks’ offensive linemen; maintain gap
discipline, penetrate and swarm to the ball. Okay, that’s pretty much what
defensive lines would like to do in every game against every opponent. Anyway,
the key to stopping a running back like Lynch is to get to him before he gets
going. We’ve all seen what happens once he gets going.
We
owe it to the kids to keep Lynch out of the end zone where his junk-grabbing
antics are likely to corrupt the youth of America (and probably the entire
planet but whatever we only really care about America). Do it for the kids, New
England!
The
Patriots have had good success blitzing Collins and/or Dont’a Hightower right
up the “A Gap,” often threatening with the two young, athletic linebackers
lined up on the line of scrimmage just before the snap only to have one or both
drop back into coverage. Look for the Patriots to blitz more on running downs
than on passing downs.
Spy on Russell Wilson
(we’d all rather see him passing than running, am I right?)…
With
triggerman Russell Wilson, the Seahawks run the most effective read option game
in the NFL. (The read option, of course, is also about making the defense think
and hesitate for that critical split second.) Again, gap discipline is critical
for the New England defense. They also need to be careful not to blitz
themselves out of position. (This is getting complicated!) They could decide to
use Jamie Collins or a safety to spy on Wilson in an attempt to nullify his way
above average running ability. If they do spy Wilson, no doubt they will use
multiple players in that role over the course of the game; sometimes Collins,
sometimes Patrick Chung or Tavon Wilson.
If Revis Island was a
space on the Monopoly board, it would cost $20m and be worth every penny…
Will
Russell Wilson try Darrelle Revis? I think he might. You’d think he might leave
Revis alone and go after penalty flag magnet Brandon Browner but I’m not sure
that fits with Seattle’s in your face mentality. I’d guess the Patriots will
have Revis cover Seattle’s best WR, Doug Baldwin (with Kyle Arrington on
Jermaine Kearse). The Seahawks could throw their first five passes at Revis
just to show they’ll run their offense how they always do, regardless. All I
can say to this is, please. Try Revis.
Devin McCourty makes
his money…
Kam
Chancellor and Earl Thomas are great; athletic and physical. But the smartest
safety on the field this Sunday may well be Devin McCourty. He’ll need his teammates
to do their jobs, of course and if they do, McCourty will see multiple
opportunities for big plays on Sunday.
They still call it football…
Special
teams play is all about big moments and I expect something like a punt return
or a blocked field goal will help decide Super Bowl XLIX.
Pretty fly for a
white guy…
Julian
Edelman is one of the best punt return men
in the history of the NFL and one of the best again
in 2014.
Patriots’ fans have come to expect Jules to put up the numbers we saw in the AFC Championship. Along with his 9
catches (on 11 targets) for 98 yards, 1 rush for 12 yards, Edelman returned 3
punts for 71 yards with a long of 45 (a 23.7 yard average). I know you can
probably do the math but that adds up to 181 all-purpose yards. I’d take that
this Sunday but I’ll be hoping for a punt return for a TD.
The candle-stick
maker…
Remember
when Chandler Jones blocked a field goal and ran it in for a touchdown against
the Vikings? Yes, yes; Vikings. Okay, the Seahawks are not the Vikings and this
is largely situational (easier to block a long FGA than a try inside the 30) but
the Patriots blocked four FGA (and one punt) in 2014.
The Patriots vs. The World…
Sorry,
World. You’re going down.
Super Bowl MVP Watch…
Tom Brady – After everything
that’s gone down this past week, is there a man on the planet who wants to win
this game more than Tom Brady?
Jamie Collins – Collins is a
strip-sack fumble recovery TD waiting to happen. Or a Pick-6 waiting to happen.
Or a blocked kick waiting to happen. It’s extremely rare for a defensive player
to win the Super Bowl MVP but this kid has got mad skills.
Julian Edelman – 12 catches for
eight 1st downs and 110 yards with a punt return for a TD should do
it. And that could absolutely happen.
Devin McCourty – As noted with
Jamie Collins, not easy to win a Super Bowl MVP playing defense but assuming
New England can keep Russell Wilson in the pocket and forces him to win the
game with his arm, McCourty could (as noted above) have multiple opportunities
for interceptions. He’d probably need to take at least one back for a score to
win the car.
LeGarrette Blount – Blount’s chances
are game-plan dependent, of course, but 25 carries for 130 yards and 3 TD
wouldn’t surprise many citizens of Patriots Nation, would it? If there’s any
player on the New England roster who should have Belichick’s back it would have
to be Blount. After all, Belichick has saved Blount’s professional life not
once but twice now.
Rob Gronkowski – Too far down the
list? Maybe. I expect the Seahawks will do everything they can to take Gronk
out of the game and I expect the Patriots to turn that to their advantage,
using Gronk as a decoy until they’re in the red zone. Gronk could wind up with
something like 3 catches for 11 yards and 2 TD and still be the key to victory.
If New England is pounding the rock with Blount, then play action could provide
more opportunities for Gronk. He’s just a big kid!
Darrelle Revis – Assuming Russell
Wilson is willing to throw in his direction, that is.
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