I
hate it when my pigskin heroes are prohibitive favorites, when the local
gridiron cognoscenti smugly dismiss the opponent as victory is a foregone
conclusion. I’ve seen it before. Don’t poke the karma bear.
Also…
Don’t
sleep on the Colts.
I
suppose I shouldn’t worry too much about what the local pigskin pundits and
bobbleheads are saying about the Colts. Smart football teams can turn the
slightest of slights into bulletin board material and this “the hard part is
over” stuff is “nobody believed in us” gold. Most of the locals seem to believe
the AFC Championship Game will be a walk-over for the Patriots. They cite the three previous
blowout wins
by New England over Indianapolis and Andrew Luck’s beard and blithely project
more of the same this Sunday. It seems to me similar “logic” was used to
project a Patriots’ loss to the Ravens last Saturday. The pigskin past is not
prologue
and correlation ain’t
causation,
kids.
Not
that I don’t hope they’re right. After that Ravens’ game, I think my
cardiovascular system has been significantly compromised. A 45-17 win by the
Patriots would be just what the heart specialist ordered. Still, I’m more
inclined to believe those gridiron cognoscenti predicting a close Patriots’
win. That 7 point line has even the most diehard Patriots’ fan re-considering
their 45-17 predictions. As Sunday draws nearer we become more and more convinced
this one won’t come with a 20 point margin of victory for New England. The
House always wins for a reason. If Vegas thought this was going to be a blowout
the home team would be favored by double digits.
Still
plenty of vodka in the freezer. I should be fine.
A quick moment of silence here for Peyton Manning and the
Denver Broncos…
From
a Belichick/Brady Legacy point of view, beating Manning and the Broncos in the
AFCCG was the ideal scenario. A trifecta of wins against the Ravens, Broncos
and Seahawks would’ve represented a most impressive run to a title. Another
tree-sized log on the Brady vs. Manning bonfire, wins over both of last year’s
Super Bowl teams, beating the consensus best team in the NFL in the Seahawks to
secure that elusive fourth Lombardy Trophy; it really couldn’t have gotten much
better than that.
This
will do, of course. And if the Packers can win in Seattle, well, that would
just give the Patriots a chance for payback. It’s all good. But
let’s not get ahead of ourselves. New England must defeat Indianapolis before
worrying about flights and hotel accommodations in Glendale.
Why I’m worried about this thing…
One
impressive aspect of Andrew Luck’s game is his short memory. He will take chances
and he will throw interceptions. Quarterbacks with great arms tend to believe
no window is too small and Luck has a great arm. When Luck does make a mistake,
he seems to have forgotten it by the next snap of the football. His belief in
himself is unshakable and unwavering. (And the next pass into that impossibly
small window may well be a completion.) Even if the Patriots can jump out to a
lead in the 1st quarter – with Luck tossing a pick or losing a
fumble – I just don’t see Luck thinking “here we go again,” shrugging his
shoulders and resigning himself to another 21-point loss. He’ll keep firing
bullets till he empties the clip.
And
then he’ll throw the empty gun at you.
Andrew
Luck is one of those quarterbacks you beat by keeping him on the sidelines. The
Patriots have featured their running game in their last two
wins over the Colts and while the consensus amongst pigskin pundits and
bobbleheads is that this game will be more of the same, I have my doubts.
The
Colts defense just shut down the Broncos running game. Granted, this is not as
impressive as stopping the ’63 Browns but still noteworthy
in context. Massive defensive lineman Arthur Jones (brother of Chandler) didn’t
play in the regular season contest when Jonas Gray ran for 201 but he’s back
now. Then there’s the injury to C Bryan Stork. The rookie center has been the
linchpin for New England’s offensive line. If he can’t go, the Patriots will
not have their best on the field. Chaos Theory. Small
changes in initial conditions. How disadvantaged are the Patriots with Ryan
Wendell at center and Josh Kline (I’m guessing) at right guard? Will this small
change produce exponentially different results?
I
wouldn’t discount the pride factor here, either. I’m guessing the Colts would
rather give up 500 yards passing to Brady than 100+ rushing to Gray or
LeGarrette Blount. Not that the idea is to give up 500 yards passing to Brady,
of course. The Colts defense looked pretty good against the Broncos, Peyton Manning’s
mangled leg notwithstanding. After dispatching Manning, the Colts’ defense will
be jacked for the chance to take out back-to-back first ballot Hall of Famers.
That kind of aggressive energy is hard to control once you set loose the hounds.
I can see the Colts blitzing Brady early and often.
Mostly
it’s Luck that has me worried. He’s impressive. He gives the Colts a puncher’s
chance.
Why I’m feeling pretty good about this thing…
The
Colts may well do a better job against the run but didn’t the Patriots just
prove they can win a game without a running game? And without Bryan Stork
(though I’d still rather have him back). This is, after all, the franchise that
won when Troy Brown had to play cornerback. I’m pretty sure they’ll dress 46
this Sunday. And I’m feeling pretty good about those
46 guys.
It
wouldn’t be a surprise if the Patriots go back to the sixth offensive lineman
and some reps for James Develin at fullback this Sunday. While I don’t think
too much should be made of the small data sample sub-titled “Luck v. Belichick;
Games 1-3,” I also think it’s worth giving Blount and Gray some carries, you
know, as due diligence. Until they’re stopped.
That
means some play action out of those looks.
That
means some Gronk action out of those looks.
That
means…
What
am I saying?
Nobody
knows what the Patriots are going to do on offense! Maybe it will be the power
game with Blount and/or Gray. Maybe not. Maybe they come out no huddle, up tempo,
four wide, empty backfield, quick passes. Perhaps Tim Wright sets a season high
for snaps, receptions and yards. Or Vereen or LaFell set personal bests for receiving
yards, game. Maybe just about anything. Maybe Rob Gronkowski throws the entire
Indianapolis Colts team out of the club this time.
Would
you be surprised? Like, by anything the Patriots do?
So,
yeah I’m feeling pretty good about the offense.
Because
Tom Brady.
And
I’m feeling pretty good about the defense in this one. I think these guys are
highly motivated to prove they’re better than 31 points. Not so much
revenge as a reckoning. I’m hoping whatever crazy amazing play Jamie
Collins makes in this game isn’t negated by penalty. Dont’a Hightower, Chandler
Jones, Devin McCourty… maybe Patrick Chung or Akeem Ayers or Vince Wilfork will
make a game-changing play. It will be interesting to see how the Pats’
defensive backs match up with the Colts wide receivers but specifically how
Darrelle Revis is deployed. T.Y. Hilton, maybe? That seems to be the consensus
amongst the pigskin prognosticators (apparently Reggie Wayne was bitten by a walker
so he could be covered by Logan Ryan this time around). Could we see a Pick-6
from Revis?
31
points to the Ravens notwithstanding, I like this defense to return to regular
season form this Sunday.
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