Wait - What?

I’m  not saying the Baltimore Ravens are a bad team, pigskin posers and pretenders, football frauds lucky to be in the playoffs in the first place because they aren’t. They’re a good team, a very good team in fact. A 21^st century head coach, a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, an athletic and attacking defense and game-changing talent on special teams. Lately, some of my friends and neighbors in Patriots Nation have adopted a fatalistic acceptance of defeat come this Saturday. The Ravens have the Patriots’ number. They’re a match-up nightmare for New England. Terrell Suggs is Tom Brady’s Baby with one Eyebrow. It’ll be close but the Pats will lose 20-17 like they always do against teams with a dominant front seven on defense.

Wait a minute. When I said, “A 21^st century head coach, a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, an athletic and attacking defense and game-changing talent on special teams,” I wasn’t talking about the Patriots?

 

Yeah. It’s going to sting like a mugato bite if the Patriots lose to the Ravens. I know I’ll lose my mind a little bit. Strip down naked. Run around the jagged ice in my front yard speaking in tongues. I’m stocked up on vodka in case I need anesthetic. Can you rent defibrillators? I’m sure you can. It’s 2014 after all. I wonder if it would get here in time. I’m starting to think seriously about this.

Not to minimize the abilities of the many fine football players on the Ravens’ roster. Not to deny the reality of my friends’ and neighbors’ feelings of fear and dread. Everyone’s entitled to their emotion truth. It doesn’t make you a bad person. Maybe you’re the kind of person who needs to prepare for your grief. You approach every game this way. You’ve already selected your scapegoat. It’ll be because everyone’s figured out Josh McDaniels except for Josh McDaniels. It’ll be Brady’s fault for being 37, for having been not so Hall of Fame-worthy in the playoffs recently (and yet somehow compiled a career 18-8 record in the playoffs). It’ll be the offensive line’s fault – it will be Belichick’s fault for trading Logan Mankins and also, Belichick is so not a genius any more.

It’s not as much fun as a crazy drunken party with everyone wearing team jerseys and reenacts the “I Will Survive” dance number from “The Replacements” for good luck (as needed). I think we’re going to bring the three-layer dip. And vodka. Vermouth and a jar of olives, too. You can’t be too careful.

But the Patriots always lose to the Ravens. Except for that one time, which was kind of fluky with the missed chip shot field goal attempt and that guy who had the certain TD catch knocked out of his hands, which was kind of fluky. Did I mention how we should completely discount the game the Patriots won? Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will dominate. Joe Flacco will throw the football high and far and will only need to hit on one or two pass interference calls to score enough points to win. Ravens 17, Patriots 14…  

Yeah. Sure. That could happen. But not because of any game that was played in 2012. Or last week.   What matters – the only thing that matters – is what happens when they cross the chalk this Saturday.

So, I’m going to fill my glass half full here.

Okay.

The Ravens are pretty good.

The Patriots are pretty good, too.

Let’s start with a healthy Rob Gronkowski, smashing and dashing and catching and spiking and throwing the uncool out of the club. I’m going to assume the Ravens will go with two and sometimes three defenders assigned to Gronk. Taking Gronkowski away is easier said than done of course but don’t you have to try?

Despite the double coverage, Gronk catches 7 for 90 yards, 5 first downs and a score.

Assuming Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman are good to go, Brady will have his two top wide receivers along with Shane Vereen, Danny Amendola and Tim Wright (and Brian Tyms?) to catch passes while the Ravens are busy chasing Gronk around. Throw a few quick WR screen passes to Edelman, a wheel route to Vereen then over the top to LaFell on a skinny post (or Brian Tyms up the sideline?).

Brady sets a record for most consecutive pass completions in a playoff game.

Assuming Dan Connolly, Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder (and Cameron Fleming as a 6^th offensive lineman) are good to go, New England could test Baltimore’s Top 5 rushing defense with LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. I think the Patriots will continue to mix pass and run regardless of the initial returns. Blount and Gray are both capable of breaking off a big run and given enough chances should do exactly that.

Gray winds up with more yardage but its Blount who runs for two TD.

They still call it football. Both of these teams are among the best in the NFL when it comes to special teams. This is where the game could turn into a rout. A fumbled punt that sets up a short field and a quick score, a return for a score, a blocked kick, maybe it’s returned for a score. There’s big play talent on both teams. It will be colder in the second half and the ball will be a bit harder. It will mean shorter kickoffs and punts. This will be bound to have an impact on the game. Jules, Amendola and Matthew Slater could all do something special in this one.

I like Slater on coverage forcing a fumble with Nate Ebner scooping it up and running it in for a score.

Defense wins championships. I haven’t always wanted to admit it. I’m a whole lot better with the concept with what is clearly the best Patriots defense in a decade. (Maybe ever. We’ll see. I hope we can revisit the topic in February.) The addition of Darrelle Revis has a lot to do with that, of course. As have new Pats Brandon Browner, Akeem Ayers, Alan Branch and Jonathan Casillas, along with the return of Vince Wilfork and the development of the young core of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Devin McCourty. The defense is deep, versatile, athletic and smart. Maybe the defense will need to win this game. That’s okay. They got this.

Revis puts Steve Smith on the island. Joe Flacco tries to hit Torrey Smith over Browner and McCourty is waiting for the interception. Jamie Collins does Jamie Collins things. Hightower, Ayers, Jones and Rob Ninkovich combine for six sacks.

Yeah. That could happen, too. Pats win, 41-13. There. I said it.