Man,
I had the craziest dream. It was a nightmare, really. The Patriots were going
to the Super Bowl and they were finally going to put that whole “they haven’t
won anything since Spygate” thing in the rear view. That wasn’t the crazy part, though.
The crazy part was that just as this was about to happen, the Patriots got
caught up in another cheating scan-
Hasn’t
that been the case for the last ten years? As I recall, even the 2013 Patriots,
with five starters on IR, was subject to its unfair share of criticism for only getting to the AFC Championship.
For
our friends in Buffalo and Cleveland and a dozen other NFL cities, let’s
acknowledge that this is one of those good problems to have. Super Bowl
expectations do not weigh heavy on the shoulders of Doug Marrone or Mike
Pettine. Not that they don’t have problems of their own. I’m sure they would
gladly trade their problems for the “anything short of a Super Bowl” problem.
The
Patriots have lost just two starters on
IR this year; Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley. Mayo’s loss has been offset by
the Pro Bowl-level play of Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins and the trades
for Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas. Ridley has barely been missed thanks to
the play of Jonas Gray and the pick-up of LeGarrette Blount. But I’m burying
the lede here. The big difference for New England this year over last is that Rob
Gronkowski is healthy.
At
the risk of stating the painfully obvious, Gronk is every bit as important an
offensive weapon as Dez Bryant is to the Cowboys, Demaryius Thomas is to the
Broncos, Jordy Nelson is to the Packers or Calvin Johnson is to the Lions.
After a slow start in September – to be expected coming off an ACL injury – and
a Week 17 spent in a hyperbaric chamber at a secure, undisclosed location, Gronkowski
finished 15th in receiving yardage. He tied for 8th
in receiving 1st downs (60 of his 82 receptions), finished 11th
in YAC, tied for 10th in catches of 20+ yards and tied for 4th
in receiving touchdowns, with 12 scores in his 15 games.
He
is still too fast for linebackers and too big for safeties. He demands a
double-team and has the athleticism to make spectacular catches in
traffic. He tips the field, opening up space for Julian Edelman, Brandon
LaFell and Shane Vereen. And he blocks.
Do not
even talk to me about Jimmy Graham. He is not a tight end. Just stop it. The
discussion regarding the best tight end in the NFL begins and ends with Rob
Gronkowski. That’s it. That’s the list.
As
a pro football fan and more specifically as a New England Patriots fan, I have
been waiting for the chance to see a healthy Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski in
the playoffs. Gronk’s name belongs on the
list of most receiving TDs in a single season, playoffs.
Gronk
isn’t the only reason for optimism. There’s a championship caliber defense
lining up on the other side of the ball for the Patriots for the first time
since 2004. They have one of the better special teams units in the NFL and
perhaps the best kicker in the league should a game come down to a field goal.
And they have Tom Brady.
Thanks
to the Denver Broncos apparent lack of interest in having the Seahawks kick
their asses on international television second year in a row, the Patriots Week
17 matchup with the Buffalo Bills has been rendered moot. The Broncos lost not
only their Monday night game against the primetime-phobic Cincinnati Bengals, they
ceded the #1 seed to the Pats and other than the 3rd quarter flurry,
looked unambiguously unimpressive in the process. Peyton Manning’s four
interceptions had pigskin pundits and bobbleheads revisiting Manning’s multiple
neck surgeries, his 38 years on this planet and puzzling over the mental errors
committed by one of the game’s most cerebral quarterbacks.
It
seems to me Manning has been given a far more reverential eulogy following the
Queen City Catastrophe than the dismissive notices handed Tom Brady after the
Monday Night Massacre in Kansas City. As a Pats fan I get that I’m probably
just a bit too sensitive to the worshipful tone of pigskin pundits and
bobbleheads as they discuss Peyton Manning and his awesomely awesome
awesomeness. Critiques of Brady when the Patriots were 2-2-0 were as clinical
and decisive as an autopsy. Brady was done. Belichick should try to hornswoggle
some rube GM into forking over a 1st round pick for Brady’s corpse
and hand the ball to Jimmy Garoppolo. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads seem
confused and nostalgic in their reactions to Manning’s descent into mediocrity
over the second half of the season, a fall that reached terminal velocity with
his four interceptions Monday night. Brady was done. Manning’s performance
is worrisome.
It’s
just one game but it was startling seeing Manning look so very much like Jay
Cutler.
For
weeks, the talk has been all about New England’s need to secure home field for
the playoffs, to avoid a repeat of 2013 and an conference championship game in
Denver. The consensus opinion seemed to be that whoever secured the #1 seed in
the AFC – be it the Broncos or the Patriots – would have the inside track to
Glendale and Super Bowl XLIX.
After
last Monday night’s game, it’s hard to imagine a healthy New England roster
(I’m looking at you, Rob Gronkowski) would’ve had any problem winning in
Denver.
Yes,
I’m glad we won’t need to find out.
Week 17 Decisions…
To
play or not to play, that is the internet meme. Sure, this game has no
implications as far as the playoffs go but it isn’t completely meaningless. Tickets
have been sold. And re-gifted to the brother-in-law. This is professional football, after all. Player
incentives in six and seven figures based on performance and playing time metrics
hang in the balance.
More
importantly, we cannot put the entire roster in bubble wrap with a “Do Not Open
Till The Divisional Round” tag. Forty-six players will dress for this Sunday’s
game. It’s like a rule or something.
Tom
Brady will be playing because he’s Tom Brady. Ideally – from my perspective – Brady doesn’t
play at all but that doesn’t seem possible let alone likely. So, taking the
impossible out of the equation, let’s say the ideal scenario has New England
starting fast on offense and Brady taking a seat following the first series in
the 3rd quarter. Brady and Vince Wilfork can share Jimmy Garoppolo jokes, do their Rob
Gronkowski impressions for each other, discuss long-term investment strategies.
Darrelle
Revis will play. He and Brady are cut from the same cloth.
Rob
Gronkowski will start because he promised he would play all 16 games this
season and Belichick will make sure he gets to keep that promise. I hold my
breath every time Gronkowski is smashing and dashing through opposing
secondaries, nervously checking the edges of the TV screen for T.J. Ward, only
allowing myself to exhale when Gronk is walking back to the huddle – or spiking
the ball in the end zone. I’m hoping for a lot of Tim Wright this Sunday.
The lame and the halt
are numerous;
how much of this has to do with Bill Belichick’s perverse attention to detail
with his injury reports is open to debate, of course. Still, the extra week of
rest that could be afforded to Julian Edelman, Dan Connolly and others would not only help
those players get healthy for the playoffs, it would give their backups
valuable reps in game action. I don’t think the extra week of downtime is going
to hurt Edelman or anyone else listed as questionable.
The Prognosis
Yes,
the Steelers are on a roll, the Chargers are flat out insane and Peyton Manning
is still Peyton Manning. Mostly. Whatever. If the Patriots play their best football
in all three phases they can’t be beaten by any team in the AFC. They still have
to do that, of course, but does anyone think it’s a long shot? It’s the
opposite of a long shot. Okay, maybe it’s not the exact opposite but it’s at
least 165 degrees off of a long shot.
And
the Super Bowl?
A
Patriots-Seahawks match up would print money. The last team to win back-to-back
Lombardi’s trying to stop the team attempting that same feat. Brady and Russell
Wilson. Gronk. The enigma that is Marshawn Lynch. Darrelle Revis and Richard
Sherman. Wow. Would there even be room for Peter Carroll’s New England years? That
could be the most analyzed, most watched, most bet Super Bowl ever.
Do
I think the Patriots can beat the Seahawks on a neutral site? Yes, I do. Would
I rather see the Patriots face the Packers? Well, it would be nice to see New
England avenge the loss in Green Bay as a sweetener to seal the deal but
winning a Super Bowl really doesn’t require a free dessert, does it?