Like most New England fans, I’ve spent the last few weeks trying to talk myself into the 2011 Patriots as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. I say most because there’s a sizable minority that seems to be working the Reverse Jinx angle. You know, dismissing the Pats chances because of their terrible, horrible, no good, very bad defense. They miss no opportunity to loudly remind us of just how really, really bad this New England Patriots Defense is. Historically bad. Stupid bad. Wicked bad. One and done in the playoffs bad. The very definition of a bad joke bad…
A Priest, a Rabbi and an Imam walk into a bar where the New England Patriots Defense is having a beer, eating nachos and watching the Bruins play on the big screen TV. The Priest walks up to the bar with the Rabbi and the Imam, hands the bartender a pamphlet and says, “My brothers in God’s good works and I are collecting for charity; the Inter-Faith Fund for the Poor, Uneducated, Homeless and the Underemployed Who Turned to Petty Theft to Feed Their Starving Families. We were wondering if we might ask the patrons of your fine establishment for a contribution.” The bartender considers the request for a moment and says, “I guess that would be okay, but just one thing.” He nods to the Patriots Defense. “Don’t ask them for anything, they’ve given enough already.”
Alternative punch line: “Start with those guys. They give till it hurts.”
If you’re a sports fan, you know that anything can – and will – happen. The 2001 Patriots shouldn’t have gotten to Super Bowl, let alone won it. The 2007 Patriots should’ve won but lost because a guy caught a pass with his helmet. Bill Belichick, who made his reputation as a defensive mastermind, taking the worst defense in the history of the NFL to the Super Bowl and winning would certainly fall under the heading of “Anything.”
Glass Half Empty
Even the most ridiculously optimistic among us has to acknowledge just how terrible the New England Defense has been in 2011. Having said that, the numbers recently posted on WEEI still felt like a cold glass of gasoline in the face. I know, I know; they’re only giving up 21.4 points per game, good for 14th among NFL defenses after 15 games. Still, this is a bad defense by almost any other meaningful metric. In games this season where they score less than 30 points, the Patriots are 2-2-0. Pittsburgh, Houston and Baltimore – all potential playoff opponents – have the three best scoring defenses in the AFC and New England could wind up facing both the Steelers and the Ravens to get to the Super Bowl.
If you are seeking reassurance at this point, do not Google “Tom Brady’s Shoulder.”
Glass Half Full
Periodically, Mike Reiss will post target and receptions stats for New England receivers on the ESPN Patriots Blog. Wes “Pasty Pilgrim” Welker, Rob “Unfrozen Caveman Tight End” Gronkowski and Aaron “A Man Who Really Needs a Nickname” Hernandez have all been targeted more than 100 times and all have reception rates of greater than 70%. Of course, numbers are only numbers without context.
Receiver Team Rec Targets Pct Rec Yards Avg
Marques Colston, WR NO 73 97 75.26% 998 13.7
Jordy Nelson, WR GB 59 81 72.84% 1,101 18.7
Percy Harvin, WR MIN 77 106 72.64% 852 11.1
Wes Welker, WR NE 116 161 72.05% 1,518 13.1
Rob Gronkowski, TE NE 82 114 71.93% 1,219 14.9
Aaron Hernandez, TE NE 72 102 70.59% 772 10.7
Tony Gonzalez, TE ATL 79 115 68.70% 867 11.0
Fred Davis, TE WSH 59 88 67.05% 796 13.5
Greg Jennings, WR GB 67 101 66.34% 949 14.2
Jason Witten, TE DAL 72 109 66.06% 873 12.1
Evidently, Welker, Gronk and Hernandez are pretty good at catching a football. You knew that anecdotally but don’t you feel better knowing it factually? I know I do. It’s math!
So, yeah, like you didn’t know this already, it all comes down to Tom Brady and the Patriots’ fractured offensive line’s ability to keep him clean in the pocket.
I’ll take it.
I refer to Hernandez as "Sleeves" because of his ink sleeves. I don't think it'll catch on.
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