Everything Ends

I find it interesting that the Seth Wickersham's Patriots expose was dropped on a Friday by ESPN. Friday is the traditional "news dump" day, when stories the publisher hopes will go away are released. It's almost like ESPN didn't really want to talk about it themselves.

Kidding.

Full disclosure: I didn't read Wickersham's piece. I don't read anything on ESPN.com that doesn't have a Mike Reiss byline (because Patriots fan, so I believe the "E" in ESPN stands for Evil). But like anything Star Wars or Beyonce or the End of American Democracy as It Happens Right Before Our Very Eyes, anything Patriots will pierce the popular zeitgeist, blow up your twitter feed, and in my personal case, cause my wife to ask me why people are being mean to the Patriots (again).

So, I believe I've got the basics...

The end of the Patriots Dynasty is nigh. Former BFFLs Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick, and Tom Brady are at each other's throats in a "Game of Thrones" level power struggle over legacies, who's the fairest of them all (Tom or Jimmy Garoppolo), and TB12 Method Man Alex Guerrero. Speculative wishful thinking has Belichick returning to the Big Apple and the New York Giants next year.

I did read Rich Hills' "some truth to the rumors" piece on Pats Pulpit. (I prefer the meta at this point in my life.) I started thinking the Wickersham piece was a bit like Christopher Steele's so-called "Trump Dossier;" a collection of hearsay, innuendo, and yes, facts.

But which is which?

There are only three people - Kraft, Belichick, Brady - who know the answer to that question. (And each of them has a lens through which they see their own personal truths.) The rest of us are left to speculate. As for me, I'm reminded of the notion that everything ends badly, or else it wouldn't end.

An aging king and a petulant, impatient crown prince? It's hardly a perfect metaphor. Perhaps there are hints of "King Lear" in Belichick and his relationship with Brady and Garoppolo? In this case though, Lear cannot divide his kingdom, he has to choose.

There was no idyllic outcome possible as it related to Jimmy Garoppolo. As often as New England has defeated the NFL's various mechanisms designed to drive parity, the math of the salary cap was unsolvable in this case. The Patriots were not going to be able to keep both Brady and Garoppolo after the 2017 season. The trade is viewed now in the context of recency bias; an inconvenient small data sample for Patriots' fans: TB12's late season slump and Jimmy GQ's 5-game winning streak. It's seen as a very un-Belichickian mistake. How could this have happened? There must be some explanation for it; our pigskin brains must rationalize this.

Enter Robert Kraft... if you believe that, of course.

The New York Giants' rumors provide yet another perspective on how dynasties end. Brady vs. Garoppolo echoes in Belichick vs. Josh McDaniels as Patriots Head Coach in Waiting. Imagine if, after Super Bowl 51, a how are you going to top this game for the ages, Belichick and Brady had announced their retirements. McDaniels was immediately announced as Head Coach and Garoppolo would start the 2017 season as the Patriots starting quarterback. The Patriots hegemony continues for another decade...

But that didn't happen.

Quick Aside from a Terrifying Parallel Pigskin Universe: Imagine Belichick and Brady don't retire but Robert Kraft, afraid of losing McDaniels to the Giants and fearing the center cannot hold with the impending reign of chaos that would follow, decides to fire Belichick and promote McDaniels before the Garoppolo trade. McDaniels then trades Brady to the Arizona Cardinals (a team that loves aging QBs) for Larry Fitzgerald.

But that didn't happen either.

I have to think that alpha competitors like Belichick and Brady would never step away from the game voluntarily (and are bound to occasionally come into conflict). If you want what they have you are going to have to take it from them. Garoppolo was going to have to find his opportunity elsewhere, refused to extend his contract with the Patriots and ultimately got his opportunity to start with the 49ers. As for Belichick, I think only death can stop him from coaching.

Clearly, the Kraft/Belichick/Brady dynasty is closer to the end than it is to the beginning; it's closer to the end than it is to the middle. The conspiracy theorists among us (raising my hand) may see the Wickersham piece as an obvious attempt to accelerate that end. Can't beat them on the field, can't beat them without Tom Brady for four games, can't beat them by changing every rule in the book that Belichick turned into an advantage; well, try beating them by turning them against each other, by splitting them up.

That's ridiculous, of course, given Kraft/Belichick/Brady ultimately know the truths of their relationships, decisions, and their personal emotional truths. Anything factual in the Wickersham piece was hardly a surprise to the lead actors in this play.

Here's a guess at what happens next...

Win or lose next Saturday, everyone will reference the Wickersham piece and say "I told you so."

If the Patriots lose, pigskin pundits and bobbleheads, fans and trolls will talk about how the toxic, dysfunctional, grounds for divorce (remember that time you called me fat?) environment in the New England locker room cost them the game. The dynasty is over - ding-dong - the dynasty is over.

If the Patriots win, pigskin pundits and bobbleheads, fans and trolls will remind everyone the Patriots eat up distractions like avocado ice cream, that this only made them stronger, brought them even closer together, and Bill and Tom and the random star of the game will sneer at the assembled press from the post-game podium, refusing to address any and all questions about Garoppolo, Guerrero, or anything else unrelated to the game they just played.

Correlation is not causation.

Winning or losing next Saturday will have nothing to do with Seth Wickersham, ESPN, or anything else but how well the Patriots play. Ultimately, that is the thing that binds Kraft, Belichick, and Brady. Those moments on the field, in the game; competing, excelling, and winning.

Someday, Belichick and Brady will leave the game but until that happens, I'm going to enjoy the ride.

Lets go!