Monday, November 15, 2021

Unanswered Points

Be afraid. Be very, very afraid.


No, these aren't your older brother's Patriots. But they might just be your Dad's Patriots.


Earlier this year, in Recasting the Patriots, I made the case that time is indeed a flat circle, and the 2021 Patriots were ready to become the Return of the 2001 Patriots. I proposed a number of comps back on August 28, including Jakobi Meyers as Troy Brown (still feeling good about that one), Christian Barmore as Richard Seymour (nailed it), JJ Taylor as Kevin Faulk (nope), a defensive resurgence (check), Mac Jones as the young Tom Brady (more on that in a minute), and, of course, Bill Belichick as Bill Belichick (duh!).


It would make a hell of a story, for sure. 


One thing I've been rethinking in the wake of Mac Jones' stellar 19/23/198/3/0 performance was that Jones doesn't necessarily remind me of a young Tom Brady so much as another HOF QB: Joe Montana. 


Maybe he doesn't have the strongest arm. Maybe he isn't the most athletically gifted athlete at the position. 


Maybe that just doesn't matter when you complete 83% of your pass attempts.


Okay, relax. All I'm saying to the haters who think they're dissing Michael McCorkle Jones with the "high floor/low ceiling" assessments, the comparisons to the Kirk Cousins, Andy Daltons, and Chad Penningtons of the pigskin world, the not even "Hall of Very Good" but "Hall of Okay" judgments; might just be missing the boat when it comes to Dirty Mac n Cheese. 


Case in Point: Twenty-One Questions Answered Halfway Through the 2021 NFL Season.


Question #15 in The Ringer piece was "Which first-round QB will have the best rookie season?"


After an opening paragraph that pats Mac Jones on the back with the back of the author's hand, it goes on to ignore the actual question and decides that this is really all about the future, which is best predicted by the number of highlight reel throws made by a rookie QB. Ipso facto, QED, cogito ergo sum, illegitimi non carborundum, the first-round QB having the best rookie season is…


Trevor Lawrence (and maybe Justin Fields).


Forgive me for being a literalist, but the question posed was not the question answered. 


If the question was "Which first-round QB will have the best NFL career?" then, well, that's really anyone's guess which means you could be right about Trevor Lawrence (and maybe even Justin Fields). That wasn't the question, though. Sometimes, we just fall in love with a certain narrative, despite all facts to the contrary…


"Mac Jones has been the best rookie based on production. He leads the class in almost every meaningful passing metric, including QBR, EPA, and success rate, and he has the Patriots on track to make the playoffs. His tape also doesn’t contain many egregious errors, which cannot be said of the other quarterbacks who’ve been starting consistently."


Yeah; no, it's not that guy. Mac Jones is just productive, whatever that means. He's just circumstantially fortunate; to have Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels coaching him, to have an effective running game that keeps him out of harm's way, and to have a defense that is giving up just 17.7 points per game. 


Even Trent Dilfer could win a Super Bowl with those advantages. 


(I know that's true because it actually happened.)


My fellow citizens of Patriots Nation, I guess we'll just have to get used to it. 


This is as good as Mac Jones gets.


I'll take it.

 

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