Friday, September 30, 2016

It's Probable I'm Questionable

So, NFL TV ratings are down?

Maybe you shouldn’t have suspended pigskin heartthrob Tom Brady for four games.

The only man doing worse with white, college-educated women than Roger Goodell right now is Donald Trump. Those women are not voting for Trump and they all wish they were Gisele Bundchen.

And so do their husbands.

I’ll be here all week.



Thursday Isn’t Sunday but it's close...
I’ve got the shakes. It’s been a week since the Patriots last played a game and they won’t be playing for three more days. I need me some football. No, Miami playing Cincinnati doesn’t count. I guess it will have to do, though. I do find myself rooting for the Bengals quite often now that I think about it (hate the Steelers, hate the Ravens and they’re playing the AFC East this year - thanks for that Jets game, by the way). Unfortunately, the Bengals are whatever the opposite of clutch is (seriously, I really appreciate that Jets game, didn’t see it coming, it was like getting something for Christmas that you never thought you’d get). The good news is that the Dolphins seem to be conducting some cruel psychological experiment with their fans. Only the once in a generation ineptitude of the Cleveland Browns could keep Miami from losing a third straight one-score game. So. Go Bengals?

Circus Reximus
He’s openly delighted that Tom Brady won’t be playing. He promised to blitz whoever the Patriots play at QB, be it Garoppolo, Brissett, Steve Grogan or even Bill Belichick. He’s pretended to be a reporter and asked Julian Edelman if he was going to play QB (so, maybe he does care who’s under center for the Pats?). He’s done a Belichick impersonation (don’t quit the day job). He’s thrown shade at the city of Boston and everything and everyone in it. What’s next? Posting nude pictures of Tom Brady on the Internet? Oh wait. Anyway...

You be you, Rex.

Never change.

I’m expecting Ryan and his charges to muddy up the game and the Patriots. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have noted Rex’s childish behavior and reminded the world he’s got a 4-11-0 record, head-to-head with Bill Belichick (including playoffs). That’s a 36.4% win rate. But here’s the thing. Rex is outperforming the league when it comes to Belichick and the Patriots. During his New England tenure, Belichick is 190-69-0 in the regular season - a 73.5% win rate - and 22-9-0 in the playoffs - 71.0%. In the regular season, Patriots opponents only win 26.5% of the time. Rex is nearly ten points better than that. When you include the playoff games, Belichick is still holding opponents to a 26.9% win rate. Still rounding up to plus-ten points for Rex.

My point is that it’s easy to be distracted by the buffoonery.   

Not that Belichick and the Patriots are fooled by the football Falstaff but I still expect a tough game this Sunday.

Cincinnati settles for a FGA to start the 2nd half. It’s good. Bengals 19, Dolphins 7.

The Jets are hosting the Seahawks and I’d be surprised but not shocked if Seattle’s defense kept this one close to the end. Then it’s hero time for Russell Wilson. It’s an anything can happen type thing.

It’s a possibility that when Tom Brady walks back through that door, the Patriots will be 4-0-0 and the rest of the AFC East will be 1-3-0.

Pigskin karma? What goes around comes around?

Hey, okay, it’s a long season. Nobody gets anything for playing four games.

But I’m pretty sure this wasn’t supposed to work out this way. Weren’t the Patriots supposed to go 1-3-0 at best? Weren’t the Jets supposed to be all alone in 1st place by now? Closely followed by the Adam Gase era beginning in Miami. The Dolphins were supposed to win that game in Foxborough. It was a gift playing the Patriots at home without Tom Brady. Couldn’t close the deal. Instead they appear destined for 1-3-0 and that one victory came in overtime at home against the early favorite for Worst Team in the League (2016), the Cleveland Browns. The good news, I guess, is that at least you cleared that bar.

Of course, the Bills would have to be 1-3-0 if the Patriots are 4-0-0.

But I’m clearly getting ahead of myself.

Regardless of whoever plays QB for the Pats, I’m expecting a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount and his personal bodyguard, fullback James Develin. Somehow I feel like Malcolm Mitchell gets his first TD as a pro in this one. If Gronkowski is progressing as we all hope he is maybe he picks up his first TD of the season in this one, too. Touchdowns from Blount, Mitchell and Gronk sounds good. Very good.

And rookie Cyrus Jones finds redemption for his recent issues with ball security by returning a punt from deep in Patriots territory all the way to the end zone. A score on special teams is always a highlight kind of play. Generally associated with momentum reversal. My absolute favorite is a blocked FGA returned for a touchdown. I’d be more than happy with a punt return for a TD, of course. Totally good with that.

On defense it will be all about stopping the run and specifically, LeSean McCoy. Keeping Tyrod Taylor in the pocket will be a key to victory, too. Maybe Patrick Chung or Duron Harmon just follow McCoy wherever he goes. Something like that. The Patriots will need to stop McCoy early and often, get a lead, then sit on Taylor, keep him in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm.

So that’s my game plan. All three phases. Patriots 31, Bills 9.

Go Pats!

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