The Next One

The Patriots were 9.5 point underdogs on the road last week and won. Now the Dolphins come to Foxborough as 6.5 point underdogs.

That probably doesn’t mean anything, right?

Right?

I like the Pats to win (okay, I always do) and if I was a betting man (I’m not) I would take the over. The injury report is some cause for concern, of course, despite Bill Belichick’s “burn the boats” mentality when it comes to game day actives. I’m just guessing we’ll have another week without Gronk and Nate Solder. Hightower won’t be playing after missing practice all week. Malcolm Butler says he’s playing on his bum ankle.

I could go on but I’m bumming myself out.

Without Hightower, I would expect Matt Patricia to change up the game plan. Hightower is one of those “you don’t replace him with one guy” guys so I don’t see New England simply plugging in Jonathan Freeny. Freeny will play, sure, and Shea McClellin as well but perhaps we get a look at Barkevious Mingo, too. Maybe they go 4-1-6 with Jamie Collins the only true linebacker, 3 safeties and 3 cornerbacks. More likely than not, they’ll do all of the above and more.

There’s been plenty of chatter about the Dolphins front four - deservedly so - but I like the Patriots defensive front in their matchups even more and the Pats defensive backfield is much better than the Phins.

On offense I don’t think Josh McDaniels will abandon the running game entirely but the Miami front four is stout and Ndamukong Suh is a monster in the Incredible Hulk sense of the word. We might see a little more of James White and a little less of LeGarrette Blount and when we do see Blount I’d expect him to try to bounce outside rather than tote the rock between the tackles.

Assuming Gronk sits for at least one more game, New England will be fine with Martellus Bennett and AJ Derby/Clay Harbor at tight end but the true revelation from the Arizona game was the wide receiver options for Garoppolo. Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell all made plays against the Cardinals vaunted defense and I would expect them to put up big numbers against the Dolphins less than vaunted defensive backs.

Quick Aside: When Gronkowski is back, I’d love to see McDaniels put all four of those wideouts on the field with Gronk, lining Jules up in the backfield. That would be crazy good fun with those five guys roaming defensive backfields.

I don’t see Garoppolo regressing to the mean in this game in part because Jimmy G has yet to establish a mean. Garoppolo’s career remains a small data sample. So, I’m guessing like anyone else but if anything, I’d expect him to play better because he’s at home and he’s playing against a less capable defensive unit than the one he faced last week.   

I know this doesn’t matter to Bill Belichick (okay, maybe a little) or Jimmy Garoppolo but I must admit I’m enjoying how the win in Phoenix has spun up the haters and vexed Roger Goodell and the suits in the league office.

It took Belichick just one game to reveal the fatal flaw in the league’s new kickoff rule. It’s stated goal was to encourage more touchbacks and fewer returns. Belichick seized on the opportunity it presented to his kicking team. He had Stephen Gostkowski kick with hang time, dropping the ball on the goal line, essentially eliminating the touchback. The Cardinals were forced to return four kickoffs into the teeth of one of the best coverage units in the NFL.

As for Garoppolo, how many NFL fans west of the Connecticut River are wondering how the Patriots have a better backup quarterback than the starter for their franchise? It’s actually a good question. It’s also interesting to consider from the perspective of what Garoppolo’s trade value might be next March…

Los Angeles Rams - The Rams are starting Case Keenum over #1 pick Jared Goff. Maybe Goff starts the last 8-10 games and shows he can be a franchise QB. Maybe there’s a reason why he couldn’t beat out Case Keenum for the starting job in the first place.

San Francisco 49ers - Blaine Gabbert? Chip Kelly is still holding out hope he can fix Colin Kaepernick because Blaine Gabbert.

Arizona Cardinals - Carson Palmer is old.

Atlanta Falcons - I feel bad for Matt Ryan. He reminds me a little of Jim Plunkett, who played for bad teams and took a beating and the blame over the early years of his career. At some point, the Falcons will have to come to grips with the fact that Ryan is the face of a failed franchise and will need to move on. I just don’t think there’s an Oakland Raiders-type team out there where Ryan could have a second act.

Chicago Bears - Unless you think Jay Cutler is finally going to get it. Also something of a homecoming for the Eastern Illinois grad. Narratives matter.

Cleveland Browns - Hate to see this happen. I kind of like Jimmy G.

The AFC East - Only Bill Belichick would have the balls to do this so I have to mention Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick looked damned good against the Bills Thursday night but he’s on a one-year deal the Jets didn’t want to give him and he’s 33 years old. Christian Hackenberg is not the long term answer to any question I can think of, let alone, “Who is the QB of the future for the New York Jets?” Tannehill may develop under Adam Gase or he may remain Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is a lot more like Don Strock than Dan Marino to me. It doesn’t look like it’s Taylor’s fault the Bills are terrible but quarterbacks do tend to get more of the credit than they deserve when a team wins and more of the blame than they deserve when a team loses. The Dolphins this Sunday and Bills two weeks from now are going to get an up close and personal look at Garoppolo.

Injuries could add a team or two to the list above but regardless, it looks like there’s a solid market for Garoppolo.

A market that can only get more bullish with another good game from Jimmy G this Sunday.

Go Pats!