Always One More Shoe

The final 53 is set. For now.

With the benefit of a good night’s sleep…

There were surprises in the final cuts although when it comes to the Patriots and Bill Belichick, should any move really be thought of as surprising? An undrafted rookie making the roster? That’s not a surprise; it’s a tradition. Perhaps it’s better to simply acknowledge that we don’t really know what Bill Belichick is thinking and he will not be explaining himself any time soon. Again, no surprise there...

Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin? Really?

Dobson’s departure wasn’t all that big a surprise. Dobson and Keshawn Martin both being released on the other hand certainly raised a few eyebrows on the part of pigskin pundits and bobbleheads. Martin had gotten paid recently which seemed an indicator he was safe. He’d finally gotten onto the field and caught a TD pass from Tom Brady. If a Kamu Grugier-Hill had made the final cut maybe it would make more sense; cruel but necessary roster math. Keeping KGH would mean someone else had to go.

Then there was Danny Amendola’s status. Amendola hasn’t even scrimmaged and seemed destined to start the season on PUP. But that didn’t happen. And maybe that’s good news (no, I don’t expect to see #80 on the sidelines in Arizona).

Well, good news for Danny Amendola.

For Keshawn Martin, not so much.

For whatever it’s worth, I’ll take a moneyball approach to the release of Dobson and Martin: How many catches were those two going to give the Patriots in 2016? That’s what you’re replacing.

Martin had a career high 24 receptions (in just 9 games) in 2015. Dobson had a career best 37 receptions in his rookie year (also 9 games) but just 13 (in 8 games) in 2015. At best - ignoring the fact Dobson/Martin would be unlikely to get much playing time behind a healthy Julian Edelman, Amendola and Chris Hogan - let’s take the 2015 numbers (yes, small data sample, recency bias but roll with me here) and say the Patriots need to replace 37 receptions in 2016.

It would seem Hogan should be able to make up the difference on his own. There should also be improved TE2 production from Martellus Bennett.

In terms of roster building, though, I’d look at the monogram bros, DJ Foster and AJ Derby, who both flashed the jazz hands in preseason action and ultimately had to make it much easier to roll with just four wide receivers. Let’s not forget Foster lined up at WR in college and let’s say DeAndre Carter (or a player to be named later) signs onto the Patriots’ practice squad.

Cutting both Dobson and Martin starts to look a whole lot less surprising.

As for Amendola, the fact both Foster and Cyrus Jones can handle kick returns will soften the blow if Amendola does miss - let’s say - the first two games of the season.

What did we miss in the KGH/Elandon Roberts comp?

Elandon Roberts made the final 53 and Kamu Grugier-Hill, everyone’s favorite hyphenated Patriot did not (he gone, by the way). Indeed, throughout the preseason, KGH (is groo-gee-yair really that hard to say?) was the darling of local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads. Indeed, even I was moved to muse on the possibility Grugier-Hill could be a Honey Badger-Lite for the Pats. Now we’re left to wonder if he’ll make it through waivers to the Pats’ practice squad.

Roberts didn’t get a whole lot of pub over the course of the preseason but everyone noticed when he was knocked out of the Giants game with an apparent ankle injury, went to the sidelines, rubbed some dirt on it and finished the game.

Local gridiron cognoscenti seem to believe KGH was the 54th player on a 53-man roster. The Patriots are just too deep at safety, linebacker and core special teams. On another team, in a different situation, Grugier-Hill might be putting a down payment on a house today.

On the other hand, Roberts is on the short list (with Ted Karras) of the player most likely to be cut when the Patriots find a 5th wide receiver.

Why is there no love for LeGarrette Blount?

Like wide receiver, the Patriots currently have Blount, James White, DJ Foster and core-4 special teamer Brandon Bolden as their final-53 options at running back. Unless you’re good with Bolden, there is no “big back” option behind the more often maligned than celebrated LeGarrette Blount.

I’ve got to think there’s a running back-poor team out there who will claim Tyler Gaffney.

Is New England a bit thin at running back? Yes.

I like Blount more than most but he is coming off an injury and he’s 29. James White did show some flashes running between the tackles during the preseason but I don’t think anybody has penciled him in for 250 yards rushing in 2016. Foster has been electric catching the ball in preseason action but (a) catching and (b) preseason. (Yes, thinking Foster might be Dion Lewis 2.0 is a clearly an example of the triumph of hope over reason. Don’t hate on my dream!) I think Bolden has been a serviceable backup in spot duty but if he was really that good as a running back he wouldn’t be a core-4 special teamer.

So, yeah. There’s all of that.

But would I cut Elandon Roberts or Ted Karras to add a David Cobb to the roster?

No. The answer is no.

The Patriots did sign Bishop Sankey to the practice squad. Color me meh.

What about the offensive line?

Unsurprisingly, we know pretty much nothing about Nate Solder’s hamstring injury. Is it serious? Was it a preplanned scenario designed to see how Cameron Fleming would react? (Had to throw that in there for the conspiracy buffs.) Does anyone actually remember seeing LaAdrian Waddle during the preseason? I know he must have. I did watch the games. Maybe that’s a good thing in that “the only time you hear an offensive lineman’s name it’s because he just did something bad” sense.

I feel pretty good about the interior offensive line. David Andrews at center, Joe Thuney at left guard and Shaq Mason (once he’s healthy) or Jonathan Cooper (if he’s ever healthy) pushing Josh Kline to the bench. Kline and Ted Karras can play at all three spots. But let’s face it. Offensive line play in the NFL is all about the tackles and it’s just hard to feel good about a gimpy Nate Solder and the ambulance chasing law firm of Cannon, Fleming and Waddle.

Let’s all hope Dante Scarnecchia can make this work.

So, is this it?

In a word, yes.

I just don’t think there’s a running back, a wide receiver or an offensive tackle out there that could help so it’s pretty much burn the boats time. Sure, there will be other moves; there will be injuries and tryouts and comings and goings on the practice squad but these, ladies and gentlemen, are your 2016 New England Patriots.

And I’m still thinking Super Bowl.