How much did the betting line move when it was learned that Rob Gronkowski didn’t make the flight out to Arizona? Six points? No Gronk, no Nate Solder and of course, no Dion Lewis, Rob Ninkovich or Tom Brady.
But these are the Patriots. They eat adversity like cold pizza for breakfast.
Take the points.
On the other hand…
One of my fantasy storylines for the Patriots 2016 season starts with an embarrassing week 1 loss, something along the lines of the 31-0 loss to the Bills back in 2003. That regular season ended with a 31-0 win over the Bills and was capped by a Super Bowl win. In this 2016 scenario, New England gets a rematch with Arizona in SB51 and crushes them. If I was writing the movie, that’s how it would go. Get out your hankies.
It also argues against taking the points Sunday night, let alone betting on the Pats to win outright.
So why am I feeling so good about this?
Bill Belichick
If Belichick isn’t the best to ever spin a whistle around his finger then he’s certainly in the discussion. He’s had since the regular season schedule was announced to get ready for the Cardinals. He knows the weaknesses of not only ex-Pat Chandler Jones but every other player on the Arizona roster and he will be sure that every player on the New England roster is ready to do their job.
And maybe, just maybe, Belichick is playing a little mental rope-a-dope with the Cardinals in leaving Gronk and Solder in Foxborough, making it look like he's playing the long game, giving up Week 1 to make sure Gronk and Solder are available in December and January.
Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia
As I’ve noted before, the four games the Pats play without Brady will serve as an audition for head coaching gigs for coordinators McDaniels and Patricia.
McDaniels can demonstrate the ability to win with lesser talent on offense. (No knock on Jimmy Garoppolo; there’s Tom Brady and then there’s everyone else.) I’m still betting on McDaniels coaching and Jimmy G playing in Detroit in 2017 but that depends in large part on McDaniels putting together game plans that Garoppolo can turn into wins. Anything better than 2-2-0 and those guys are getting paid.
If the defense carries New England through these first four games, Patricia will be on every failed franchise’s short list for their open head coaching job. (I’d hate to see him go to Buffalo or Indianapolis; San Diego is nice… Isn’t Jason Garrett finally done in Dallas?) There’s plenty of talent on New England’s defense and if Patricia pitches a couple of shutouts in September and Tom Brady takes the field in Cleveland with a 3-1-0 record at his back, Bill Belichick can start planning Matt Patricia’s going away party.
Bulletin Board Material
Cardinals QB and apparent flat-earther Carson Palmer threw a little shade at Tom Brady over Deflategate. Maybe Carson can’t count to 12.5 or is confused by decimals as much as he’s confused by the zone blitz. Maybe he thinks fluid dynamics have something to do with drinking beer from a can. Maybe he thinks that since Tom Brady isn’t playing, what he said won’t matter.
I think Belichick will use Palmer’s comments to remind his team Arizona is happy to be playing them without Tom; they think it’s going to be easy to beat New England without Brady. They’ve forgotten about the Patriots defense. They’ve discounted the offenses ability to perform at a high level without Tom Terrific. Belichick will remind them Carson Palmer thinks your momma is so fat that when she sits around the house she sits around the house.
Do your job on three!
Jimmy Garoppolo
He isn’t Tom Brady. He’ll make some mistakes. He’ll also make some plays.
This is the opportunity Jimmy G has been waiting for and probably thought would never come. He was going to have to play out his rookie contract and be looked at as the next Brian Hoyer.
Ouch.
Now Garoppolo has to be looking at what happened with Brock Osweiler and thinking about what it feels like to sleep on a mattress stuffed with $18,000,000 in small bills.
His own team and a buttload of cash.
That’s motivation.
LeGarrette Blount
I think it’s fair to describe LeGarrette Blount as an emotional guy; just a big kid, really. I think he feels a deep and sincere sense of loyalty to Bill Belichick who has rescued Blount from pigskin irrelevance not once but twice.
He only wants to know which wall to run through.
X Factors
Jabaal Sheard, Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, Malcolm Butler and Duron Harmon are playing for contracts. Chris Long is playing not only for a contract but his legacy as a pro. Trey Flowers wants to prove the preseason performance was no fluke. Malcom Brown is on the cusp of stardom. Chris Hogan is playing to make his mark as a Patriot. DJ Foster is playing to become the next great folk hero in New England. Cyrus Jones could win this game with a punt return.
More importantly, I think from Bill Belichick on down, the New England Patriots want this game more.
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