The Patriots have announced Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting QB for this Sunday’s game against Buffalo Bills. You can go ahead and tick the box next to Toughness on Jimmy G’s curriculum vitae.
Okay, the game still needs to be played but assuming Garoppolo can be 80% of what he was in the first half of the Dolphins game, GMs in half the NFL’s franchises will start putting together back of the napkin trade offers while they watch the 4:00pm games.
Here’s a hint: The bidding starts at a 1st and a 4th. That’s the floor. Now tell me what you got that’s better than that. Can you hold? I’ve got Chicago on the other line.
I have a hard time saying the Patriots are winning Deflategate but I have to admit it sure feels like winning. You know what I’m talking about. They could go 4-0-0 without Brady. And not just without Brady; Gronk, Ninko, Hightower and Lewis have played little or not at all. Brady will be fresher in the playoffs without those four games of sacks, hits and reps on his 39-year old shoulder. New England was able to showcase Jimmy Garoppolo, ensuring they can move him for high draft picks. Unless Brady retires after winning SB51 in which case they have their version of Aaron Rodgers. Win-win. As fate would have it, they even got a look at rookie QB Jacoby Brissett who showed the moment - short week/Thursday Night Football/the whole pigskin world is watching - wasn’t too big for him. Along the way, Jamie Collins established his bona fides as a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year and Bill Belichick re-opened the condo he owns in the heads of every other NFL franchise.
The AFC East, it seems, was not up for grabs.
Emerging Storylines...
John Elway is apparently smarter than he looks. After Brock Osweiler’s Brian Hoyeresque performance last Thursday night, Elway took a victory lap, noting that sometimes the best deals are the one’s you don’t make. Clearly, the best deal Elway made in the offseason was the one he did make; signing Von Miller (a deal he probably couldn’t make if he had to pay Osweiler, too). Still, hard to argue with the man whose team is 3-0-0. Despite Trevor Siemian’s impressive small data sample/recency bias game last Sunday (4 TD passes, 0 INT), pigskin pundits and bobbleheads still seem convinced Siemian is merely a transitional love object as the Broncos prepare for the Paxton Lynch era.
The Broncos, like the Patriots, have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to the quarterback position.
We’re all just counting the days until the Patriots and Broncos square off in the AFC Championship game, aren’t we?
Houston Has a Problem
As for Osweiler and the Texans, this Sunday’s game is literally existential in nature. We shouldn't forget the young Peyton Manning struggled against Bill Belichick’s defenses, too, so perhaps we shouldn't make too much of that one game. Fair or not, the Texans - coaches and players - are playing for their jobs this Sunday. The loss a week ago Thursday had to have left a mark on the collective psyche of the Houston franchise. The Texans have a division game at home and a chance to put that whole New England game in the rear view and they desperately need to do just that.
And they’ll have to do it without J.J. Watt.
A loss to the Titans will put HC Bill O’Brien on the hot seat and leave Osweiler’s future as a franchise QB in question, not to mention that it would likely put the Colts back in the AFC South conversation.
We’re All Week to Week
Are the Steelers in trouble? I’m not convinced. I expect them to bounce back from their puzzling performance in Philadelphia last week (and maybe the Eagles are just that good). I never saw Pittsburgh as the AFC favorite for the Super Bowl but I would always give them a chance in a single elimination playoff as long as Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown stay healthy. I wouldn’t call Sunday night’s game at home against the Chiefs existential but with the Ravens off to a 3-0-0 start and Kansas City a potential wild card round opponent, this is an important, perhaps even a statement game for the Steelers.
Must win?
Statistically speaking, no. Psychologically speaking, yes.
Nearing the Quarter Pole
It’s clear we still don’t really know what’s going to happen in 2016 with few exceptions. Sure, the Broncos, Patriots and Steelers will be good narrative still has merit but then it always does. Yes, the Browns, Jaguars and 49ers won’t have their games flexed to Sunday night in December still holds true but who didn’t see that coming? Here’s what I’m wondering…
Are the Philadelphia Eagles that good?
We won’t find out this weekend; the Eagles are on their bye week.
Can the Kansas City Chiefs compete for the AFC West?
I think they’re playing for a wild card spot.
Could the Dallas Cowboys actually be better off without Dez Bryant?
It will certainly look that way against the 49ers.
The Saints can’t possibly go 0-16-0, could they?
Nah. They’ll go 1-15-0.
Why does Jeff Fisher still have a head coaching job?
Nobody knows the answer to this question.
We’re hoping the Vikings and Sam Bradford face the Eagles and Carson Wentz in the playoffs, aren’t we?
Well, Sam Bradford is. Yeah, me too. I guess. As revenge tales go, I’m just not feeling this one.
Wish Fulfillment
I’m wishing and hoping Rex Ryan doesn’t ugly up this game. Would I take a 10-7 win. Of course! Bill Belichick may not care about Rex’s antic disposition but I’m a much smaller, bitter person and I’d like to see the Patriots spank the Bills on Sunday.
I’m pulling for Jimmy G and not just because it might mean two 1st round picks on the back end. Garoppolo was on the verge of a simply insane game when Kiko Alonso supplexed him, knocking him out of that game and the next. I want to see that guy again. I hope he can take advantage of Gronk, who sounds like he’s ready for a bigger role in the offense than the 14 snaps and 1 target he saw against the Texans. I expect to see a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount and that should set up play action and some easier throws.
I’m hoping that with ten days to get ready, the Patriots defense can shut down the Bills offense. Back to back shutouts? That’s asking too much, isn’t it? Stopping LeSean McCoy is a difficult task. He’s a legitimate threat to score from anywhere on the field. I'll be happy if they slow McCoy down and keep him out of the end zone. Nothing but field goal attempts for the Bills this Sunday.
I’d like to think the locker room wants this game as much as any regular season game they’ve played in recent years. It’s a home game against a divisional opponent and that should really be enough but this is also the final game without Brady. I believe the entire organization was committed to this imminent goal; to hand the ball to TB12 with a 4-0-0 record.
This is the middle finger game.
Patriots 31, Bills 12
Go Pats!
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