Dreaming Big

I’m pulling for Stevan Ridley. In 2012 he was the best Patriots running back since Corey Dillon. I was looking forward to 2013 and then 2013 actually happened. In the off-season, when LeGarrette Blount signed with the Steelers, I was worried that Brandon Bolden would necessarily play a larger role in 2014 during Ridley’s frequent visits to Bill Belichick’s Home for Wayward Running Backs. A big fan of inertia, I had a hard time believing Ridley’s ball security issues wouldn’t continue, even if 2014 was a contract year. Shane Vereen, also in a contract year, couldn't replace Danny Woodhead spending half the season injured in 2013. Can he stay on the field in 2014? Tom Brady is terrific, but he’s even better with a solid running game (okay, what quarterback isn’t). Heading into training camp, it didn’t look like play action was going to help slow the pass rush down. Not with Brady faking to a backfield of slow, fumbling, fragile running backs.

And then the reviews of rookie running back James White started rolling in.

 

This is where I’m supposed to pump my breaks. There have been, what, five practices in pads? We haven’t seen the first preseason game and the regular season is a month away. James White is turning heads in Patriots camp but he’s hardly getting much pub outside of Foxborough. It still seems likely the contract-motivated Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen – and perhaps Brandon Bolden – will start the season ahead of James White on the depth chart. White may not even make the game day 46 to start the season.

Still, it’s hard to dismiss praise authored by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The key comment from my perspective is Belichick’s reference to White as a three down back…

“He’s a very interesting and versatile player. He does a good job in the passing game and in the running game – both inside and outside. Blitz pickup – we have a pretty extensive offense for him to learn, but he’s working hard at it. We’ll just let him go and see how it goes, but I think he has the ability to compete on all three downs, in both the running game and the passing game.”

What makes Rob Gronkowski particularly devastating is that his presence on the field gives no indication of the play call. Gronk is a threat down the seam, of course, but he is also a devastating blocker. Should the strong side linebacker and safety come up to support the run or stay back to cover the pass? With Ridley and Vereen, there’s a strong indication of run vs. pass (respectively). If James White is as good between the tackles as he is in blitz pick up or catching passes, defenses won’t be able to make situational substitutions – or will do so at their own risk with Brady making the pre-snap reads.

This is exactly what the Patriots want to do on offense. Line up and let the defense declare its intentions then attack the obvious weakness. If the defense lines up to stop the run, Brady checks to the pass. If the safeties drop or there’s an extra DB replacing a linebacker of lineman, Brady checks to the run. Having a running back equally versed in the running and passing game fits this scheme perfectly.

Okay, pumping the brakes again. Expecting James White to replicate his college production in the pros is foolish, even as it’s impossible to resist the possibilities.

It’s become an annual tradition since Randy Moss fell down and went crazy to bemoan the lack of weapons at TB12’s command. Brady needs weapons! Count me as one citizen of Patriots Nation who hoped the Patriots would draft WR Kelvin Benjamin in the 1^st round of the 2014 draft. They didn’t get the chance, of course, as the Panthers took him at #28. No doubt I will occasionally take note of WR Jordan Matthews’ numbers, though he would’ve been a reach at #29. Don’t even get me started about Cordarrelle Patterson.

I’ve noted in previous posts that a Top 5 defense would do more to prop open Brady’s Super Bowl Window than any single player on offense. An improved performance by the offensive line would add 3 to 5 points to his completion percentage. Not that I would mind Aaron Dobson getting on the field and improving on his 2013 numbers. Kenbrell Thompkins and Danny Amendola playing better in their second year with Tom Terrific would be great as would Shane Vereen catching more than he drops on the wheel route. But on this beautiful August Sunday morning, as I think back on the best weapons that Brady has had in his Patriots’ career, I find myself thinking not of Randy Moss but of Corey Dillon.

In terms of physical measurables, James White will never remind anyone of Corey Dillon. Dillon was never a huge part of the pass game (he didn’t have to be). I’m not saying James White can or will be the next Corey Dillon in the literal sense. I am saying that a Top 5 rushing attack would be better than having Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Cordarrelle Patterson or Andre Johnson at the X. And yes, probably maybe Larry Fitzgerald, too.

A better comp for James White is Doug Martin, who had a breakout rookie season for Tampa Bay in 2012. Both were highly productive at Division I football factories (Martin at Boise State, White at Wisconsin). Martin is listed at 5’ 9” and 215 lbs.; White is listed as 5’ 10” and 206 lbs.

In Martin’s rookie year, he rushed 319 times for 1,454 yards and caught 49 passes for 472 yards.

Alright. I’ll pump my brakes one more time. Bill Belichick is famous for putting the best player on the field, regardless of tenure, draft status or salary but it seems highly unlikely James White will get 300+ touches in 2014. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen ain’t exactly chopped liver and Brandon Bolden seems to me to be every bit as good as Toby Gerhart and the Jacksonville Jaguars seem to think they’ll lead the league in rushing with the former Vikings back up (talk about people who need to pump their brakes).

Perhaps (probably) I’m being as overly optimistic about James White as the Jags are about Toby Gerhart.

If you’re going to dream, why not dream big?