Sunday, July 27, 2014

Process of Elimination


 
The Hunger Games are in full swing down in Foxborough. 90 players on the roster playing for 53 spots on the roster; 61 if you count the practice squad but whose NFL dream was it to make the practice squad? And the harsh reality is that all 53 spots are not open to competition. Earlier in July, estimable ESPN Boston scribe Mike Reiss projected 49 locks or near locks on the current roster. So…

4 open spots on the roster.

37 men are playing for those 4 spots.

Math is hard.

Smashing and Dashing
Mike Petraglia and Christopher Price broke down Day 2 and Rob Gronkowski’s progress, referencing nicknames Gronkalicious and The Full Gronkowski but I think I’m going with The Big Gronkowski. If anyone on this team is The Dude it’s Rob Gronkowski. Gronk’s “smashing and dashing” quote is the early favorite for Best Sound Bite of the Summer. Gronk is likely his own biggest competition when it comes to quotable quotes, of course. Gronkowski is, by his own words, less than 100% but the fact that he’s on the practice field, running and cutting, is like Christmas in July for Patriots fans.

More to come. We wait with anticipation and anxiety for The Big Gronkowski to participate in 7-on-7’ and 11-on-11’s. (Half speed on Sunday!) We wait for the first report of a hit that takes him to ground followed by a grinning Gronk trotting back to the huddle.

Okay, some of us (I’m looking at me!) will be holding their breath every time Gronk makes a catch this season. As he looks around for a defensive back to truck, as he carries a cornerback and a safety on his back for another five yards we’ll be yelling, “Get down! Get out of bounds!” and we will heave a sigh of relief as he gets up and is greeted by a hollering, high-fiving Tom Brady.

The wife has suggested I start taking CoQ10 for my heart.

I think she might be right.

Extra Mayo
Bill Belichick’s uncharacteristic and effusive praise of Jerod Mayo prompted the old debate about Mayo from local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads. Andy Hart of Patriots.com was on WEEI on the drive home yesterday making the argument that Mayo is good but he isn’t special. He isn’t Patrick Willis. He isn’t what you want from the #10 pick in the draft. Mayo is good for 140 tackles, Hart’s argument went, but he isn’t a playmaker.

I just don’t get this argument. You only get credit for a tackle if the offensive player did not score. That’s not making a play? Whatever. Patrick Willis is a great player; the gold standard for NFL linebackers. He also plays in a different system than the one the Patriots run and that has something to do with the numbers, too. Look at Mayo’s 2012 numbers with New England running more 4-3 and you see a bump in those “playmaking” stats.

Am I arguing that Mayo is as good or better than Willis?

No, I am not.

But I do remember this from Bill “Stats Are For Losers” Belichick. A number of years ago, in a post-game presser, he was asked about a sack. It might’ve been Tully Banta-Cain; let’s say it was. Belichick was asked about Banta-Cain’s ability to get to the QB. Belichick answered that the only reason Banta-Cain got the sack on that play was because of how Junior Seau handled his coverage responsibilities. Similarly, Mike Reiss, in his bold predictions column tabbed Chandler Jones for a career year in sacks in part because of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and the improved defensive backfield provided better coverage.

More recently, Belichick made a similar argument regarding Dominique Easley’s college production, noting that opponents had to double- and triple-team Easley, giving his teammates opportunities for sacks and tackles. Easley’s pressure would force the quarterback to hold the ball so a teammate could make the play.

In 10 years in the NFL, including his injury shortened 2013 season, Vince Wilfork has 16 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 12 fumbles recovered and 2 interceptions. He has never had 100 tackles in a season because his job is to tie up two and sometimes three offensive linemen so his teammates can make a play.

Is Vince Wilfork a playmaker?

Is Jerod Mayo a playmaker?

I’m just glad they’re both back on the field.

No Man is an Island, Unless his Name is Darrelle Revis
Darrelle Revis pronounced himself to be in the best shape of his career after Day 2 and proceeded to go out and prove it on Day 3, intercepting Tom Brady twice and knocking down a couple more attempts that came his way.

It seems unlikely Revis will lead the league in interceptions in 2014. I doubt he’ll be in the Top 20 for passes defended. It’s hard to defend a pass when nobody’s throwing them in your direction. Recent discussions of the Patriots playing Cover One have as much to do with Revis’ ability to take one half of the field away from opposing offenses as it does with Devin McCourty entering his prime at safety. McCourty could lead the league in interceptions and Chandler Jones could lead the league in sacks in part because of the Revis Effect.

Aqib Talib played well for the Patriots and I would’ve been happy had he re-signed but Revis is better. Significantly better. I don’t think there’s any debate on that. Talib isn’t even in the Revis-Sherman-Peterson conversation. In a game decided by small margins, an upgrade at any position can be the difference between winning and losing; an upgrade at a position like cornerback can be the difference between a loss in the AFC Championship and a win in the Super Bowl.

The addition of Revis, Brandon Browner and draft choice Dominique Easley, the return to health of Wilfork, Kelly and Mayo, the continued development of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon with Devin McCourty playing at a pro bowl level at safety has pigskin pundits and bobbleheads asking if this defense has the look of the 2003-04 champions, if this secondary is the best of Belichick’s tenure in Foxborough.

That these questions are even being asked is encouragement enough for those of us looking wistfully at Lombardi Trophy #4.



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