Bill Being Bill

Should we really be this surprised?

 

I guess this is breaking down like this…

A)  Bill Belichick has traded the best guard he ever saw for a one-hit wonder and a bag of balls, I mean, a 4^th round draft pick. How do you trade your pro bowl left guard when you don’t know who your starting center or right guard will be?

Or…

B)  Bill Belichick trading Logan Mankins, his declining skills and his unsustainable cap hit for a second-year player who outperformed his team last year in Tampa Bay plus a 4^th round draft pick? How does he do it?

I guess it’s all about the position of the observer relative to the event. Again.

Stop pretending to be outraged when you’ve seen this movie before…

Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, Wes Walker. Eventually, every pro football player reaches a point where his costs outweigh his abilities. Things end badly. They’ve ended badly before and they’ll end badly again in the future. Belichick is famous for letting players go a year too early rather than a keep them a year too many.

Logan Mankins was a mauler who could play in space. He was a force leading the way in the running game and an effective downfield blocker on screen passes. He was a legitimate pro bowler from 2010-2012 even if he was a pro bowler by reputation in 2013. He played hurt. He moved to left tackle when Nate Solder was out and acquitted himself admirably. He was a captain, a leader in the locker room as well as on the field. He was the best damned offensive guard Bill Belichick ever saw. It will feel strange seeing him in that horrible Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform.

This is a tough one. I think most of us saw the end coming with Richard Seymour and had time to organize our feelings ahead of the inevitable. Did anyone see this one coming?

Okay, fine, but whose getting beaten by Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton this year?

Good question. This would be a little easier to deal with if rookie Jon Halapio had pushed Dan Connolly to center. Instead, Halapio has been showing up on practice squad projections from the local pigskin pundits and bobbleheads. Or if rookie Brian Stork had replaced Ryan Wendell at center and kept Connolly at right guard. Instead he spent most of his time on the practice report Did Not Participate list with an injury. Josh Kline had seemingly been supplanted by Jordan Devey, the second-year player who has led the team in snaps this preseason (to mixed reviews).

What’s our best starting five at this point? I’d go Solder, Kline/Devey, Connolly, Cannon, Vollmer.

We won’t be surprised if New England brings in a veteran for league minimum sometime between now and September 7, will we?

The new kid better pick up the playbook fast…

Tim Wright somehow managed 54 receptions for 571 yards (10.6 per catch), 5 TD. He caught 71% of his targets. (I think that’s pretty good but I’m too lazy to deal with facts or integrity so whatever. Okay, I ran Julian Edelman’s numbers. 69.5%. So, context.) He’s a move TE who will play in the slot and backfield more than he does as an in-line blocker. I would imagine Wright will be integrated with just a few packages to get started. He isn’t going to have much time to learn the offense build a relationship of open communication and trust with Tom Brady before the live bullets start flying. I have to believe the Rutgers Mafia (Greg Schiano was just in town for a visit) must’ve vouched for Wright’s bona fides. Fingers crossed!

Give me the upside!

Let’s assume he is smart enough to pick up the intricacies of the famously complex Patriots offense and do it quickly. With all the other options at Brady’s command it would be extraordinary if Wright was able to duplicate his performance as a rookie in his first year in New England.

But it isn’t the 54 catches that matters, it’s the 71% catch rate and his potential as a game plan mismatch for opposing defenses that has me intrigued.

The Patriots can now go big, big, big in the red zone with Rob Gronkowski, Wright, Brandon LaFell and (at some point) Aaron Dobson or (maybe) Brian Tyms all 6’ 3” and up. Not a bad crew for midfield either, come to think of it. The point is the good NFL teams score touchdowns, not field goals. You’ve got to close the deal when you get the ball inside your opponent’s 20-yard line. Having plenty of large, athletic men with well above average small motor skills is one of the best ways to make sure you get the six. Tim Wright is one of those large, athletic men with well above average small motor skills. They’re good to have.

What’s Wright’s ceiling?

The obvious question is, can Wright can produce like Aaron Hernandez?

We’ve already connected the dots. Wright is a tweener, like Hernandez. Too big for wide receiver; too small for a tight end with any value on running downs. This hybrid nature is turned to their example simply by alignment. They may line up on the end of the line to ensure a speed match up with a linebacker. They may line up in the slot where he may have a size advantage over a cornerback or a speed advantage over a safety. They may line up in the backfield where again there’s a probable speed advantage against a linebacker.

Tim Wright is going to have to deal with the Aaron Hernandez comp; pigskin pundits and bobbleheads are already pimping the narrative. He’s probably not going to be Aaron Hernandez, of course. There’s a chance (it’s math) but it seems unlikely. If it hadn’t been for weed and guns Hernandez never would’ve fallen to the 4^th round in the NFL draft. He was a special, albeit allegedly sociopathic, talent. Wright was an undrafted free agent and with good reason. He caught just 39 passes for 449 yards and 2 TD his senior season at Rutgers. Is he a special talent that everyone just completely missed? Again, there’s a chance (math) but it seems unlikely. Still, Wright’s 54/571/5 is a nice floor. A sturdy but moderately stylish oak laminate. Ceiling? Let’s say we go with a .3 positive variance; Wright’s slash line would project to a 70/742/7.

How good does he have to be to justify trading away this generation’s John Hannah?

A lot depends on how right Belichick and new offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo are in their assessment of Logan Mankins net present value. There’s also the 4^th round pick to consider. Not to mention the nearly $6m in salary cap relief and how that’s used. Most importantly – perhaps – will be the performance of the offensive line in 2014. Every time a running play is blown up in the backfield, every time Brady is sacked, good citizens of Patriots Nation will hang their heads and mutter angrily, “That wouldn’t have happened if Mankins was still here!” They’ll be wrong, of course. We all want to remember 2010-12 Logan Mankins, not 2013 Logan Mankins. As fans, we could care less about the cap savings and we suspect that 2015 4^th rounder will probably be packaged with a 6^th for a 2016 2^nd rounder.

Regardless, Tim Wright needs to sustain that 71% catch rate, be where Brady expects him to be and score some touchdowns or he’ll be the hate magnet for every Pats fan with a #70 jersey hanging in the closet.

And most importantly, the offensive line has to play well.

Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end...