Sunday, April 20, 2014

Risk and Reward

We’ve reached that point in the pre-draft process where all we hear about is flaws, real or perceived; when the #1 overall pick becomes a hot potato. You can almost smell the fear and understandably so. Blowing a Top 10 pick can haunt a franchise for years, not to mention costing the GM and Head Coach (and his assistants) their jobs. Trade down? Trade down.

 
Okay, trading away the #1 pick and then watching Jadeveon Clowney go on to become the most dominant defensive player of his generation would be big bowls of porridge for the trolls on the Texans’ team site until Clowney retires or Bill O’Brien gets fired. A lot depends on the comps, of course. If the Texans pick up multiple picks and – let’s say – Derek Carr becomes his generation’s Tom Brady, well, that’s a different story. Anybody taking bets on Derek Carr becoming his generation’s Tom Brady? No?

What happens in the Top 10 is of little more than academic interest to Patriots’ fans like me who are mentally preparing themselves for Bill Belichick trading out of the 1st round once again.

Maybe we shouldn’t.

I was intrigued by the implications of Christopher Price’s post on WEEI’s It Is What It Is blog this Sunday. By Price’s count of “expected starters, as well as some key backups who have already put in extended time in the system and could be considered entrenched members of the roster,” 49 of the 53 roster spots are already locked up. Price doesn’t use the phrase “locked up” and notes that a lot can happen between now and the season opener but it struck me that trading down for more picks might not be the best strategy for the Patriots, even with a draft that is supposedly as deep in talent as any in the last ten years.

From the New England perspective, is there a transformative talent in the 1st round? How much coin will it take to move up to a spot where the Patriots can draft that player?

The only player I see who might be worth it is WR Mike Evans from Texas A&M because of his size and upside; he’s coming out after his sophomore year so I could see him improving with some NFL coaching. Maybe DT Aaron Donald out of Pittsburgh. He’s undersized by Patriots’ standards but he looks like he could be special.

Might be.

Maybe.

I’m having a hard time talking myself into the trade up scenario, obviously, but it’s an interesting “what if.” Evans looks like the prototypical big, outside the numbers threat the Patriots have lacked since Randy Moss and we all know what Brady was able to do with Moss and Welker in 2007. What could Tom Terrific do with Evans, Aaron Dobson split wide, Julian Edelman in the slot and Rob Gronkowski (eventually) at TE? Put me down as someone who would like to find out (maybe Peyton Manning would turn out to be right that Brady would break his TD record next year).

While we’re looking at trading up, let’s go big. What would it take to get that #1 pick from Houston to take Jadeveon Clowney? I think the Pats would need to offer their #29 this year, Ryan Mallett and maybe next year’s 1st round pick at minimum. Belichick worked with Lawrence Taylor when he was a defensive coordinator with the Giants and while the LT comparisons are unfair, if Clowney is that “once in a generation” talent that some pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have called him, he will be worth whatever it takes to get him.

In truth, I’m counting on Belichick trading down for more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I’m counting on the Patriots picking up a TE like C.J. Fiedorowicz or Troy Niklas (maybe Jace Amaro), help with pass rush/depth at linebacker from a Kyle Van Noy, Scott Crichton, Kareem Martin or Jeremiah Attaochu, a big safety like Deone Bucannon and a C/G, maybe David Yankey.

That would be fine.

More than fine.

But it wouldn’t be Clowney.

Is Bill Belichick that unpredictable?



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