Mockity Mock 1.0

Now that free agency is running down to hearing Will Smith was in for a visit and thinking, “Meh. I wanted Jared Allen. Whatever.” It’s time to focus our obsessive pigskin energy with laser-like focus on the draft. (It’s a month away!) At some point, we’ll be reminded that Tom Brady was taken in the 6^th round with pick #199. But what exactly is the lesson there? Is it that you can find hall of famers in the 6^th round? Or is it that Tom Brady is the ultimate outlier and anyone counting on a HOF talent that late in the draft is simply deluding themselves?

It’s the latter, right?

With almost daily regularity, I check in on the Patriots Team Site Mock Draft Tracker which summarizes the latest 1^st round predictions from pigskin pundits and bobbleheads.

TE Jace Amaro was the early consensus pick, showing up on eight of the expert’s mock drafts. Amaro makes sense to pick up those old Aaron Hernandez’ routes in the Patriots’ offense. Lately the gridiron cognoscenti have been all over place. Amaro’s been replaced by other options (though he’s still on consensus pick on DraftTek.com – with WR Kelvin Benjamin still on the board!).

DE Ra’Shede Hageman has been another popular pick. He’s either Richard Seymour 2.0 or a bust of Kenneth Sims’ proportions.

There are several players on the experts’ draft boards seem unlikely to be available when Belichick trades down and out of the 29^th pick; CB Darqueze Dennard, FS Calvin Pryor, DT Aaron Donald, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins and OG Xavier Su’a-Filo have shown up in the Top 20 of a number of mock drafts I’ve seen, enough so that I doubt any of them will be available. Then again, anything can happen. All the names above are intriguing and should any of them fall to #29 perhaps Belichick will turn in a card with one of their names on it.

I’m just not betting on it. Okay, I’m not betting on anything. The outcomes above would surprise me. I should just leave it at that.

The Notre Dame d-line duo of DT Louis Nix III (Vince Wilfork 2.0) and DE Stephon Tuitt (Ty Warren 2.0?) have also been popular picks. I like getting some help at DE more than DT and Tuitt seems like a clean if unspectacular pick. I’ve got the same impression of DE Scott Crichton of Oregon State, a recent add to the mock tracker.

New England needs to add depth at linebacker and so it’s no surprise to see Ohio State’s Ryan Shazier and Alabama’s C.J. Mosely replacing Amaro and Hageman on some boards.

And then there’s WR Kelvin Benjamin from Florida State. Look for the Jets to take Benjamin and break my pigskin heart.

As difficult as predicting the 1^st round is, putting together a 7-Round board is geometrically more difficult. They’re not worth the memory my browser allocates. Still, I can’t resist.

Draft Tek’s 7-Round Consensus Draft led with Jace Amaro and then… 

2^nd Round – DE Trent Murphy, Stanford – This reminds me too much of Jake Bequette; good productivity at the college level, good motor, but probably lacking the elite athleticism needed to excel at the pro level. Still, New England needs depth at DE and I love the Jared Allen comparison. Not the sexy.

3^rd Round – ILB Chris Borland, Wisconsin – The best case scenario is Tedy Bruschi 2.0. (I don’t feel that lucky. I never feel that lucky.) Borland played in a run-heavy conference and will need to have some coverage skills at the next level. Another need pick as the Pats have some blanks on the depth chart at linebacker. Definitely not the sexy.

4^th Round – DT Ego Ferguson, LSU – Ego? Tough. I bet all the other kids in Latin class made fun of him.

4^th Round – SS Isaiah Lewis, Michigan State – Who?

6^th Round – OLB Devon Kennard, USC – I noticed that CB Loucheiz Purifoy of Florida was taken by the Broncos with the very next pick. (I always check the next three picks after any Patriots’ pick in mock drafts to look for players I would’ve picked.) I know New England just signed Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner but I actually recognize Purifoy’s name. Can you have too many cornerbacks?

7^th Round – DE Tim Jackson, North Carolina – A big strapping lad. It’s the 7^th Round so what should we expect beyond upside? (Set Ie Tom Brady, outlier.)

Bleacher Report’s latest 7-Round Predictions from Matt Miller has the Patriots selecting OG Brandon Thomas, Clemson with pick #29 (and personal fave WR Kelvin Benjamin still on the board!). WTF! Seriously! WTFF! It would be different if I’d been seeing anything about Brandon Thomas being the next John Hannah. But I haven’t. After that…

2^nd Round - DT Dominique Easley, Florida - The poor man’s Aaron Donald; active, athletic but undersized. Will Easley’s game translate to the pro level? Why not? (Why not? Yeah, that’s the best I got.) I’m going to say the over/under should 5.5 six sacks his rookie season.

3^rd Round – TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa – Given his size and the Belichick connection to his college head coach, Kirk Ferentz, this one seems to write itself. I like Fiedorowicz as Gronk’s backup in the passing game and a second blocking tight end in the rushing game. I’m starting to like Troy Niklas almost as much. Either way. I like this pick a lot.

Let’s stop here and say that if this is how the Pats first three picks play out I’ll be pretty happy; even happier if they take Kelvin Benjamin instead of an offensive lineman.

4^th Round – WR Josh Huff, Oregon – Highly productive player in a highly productive offensive scheme but don’t we have enough smurfy wide receivers already? Isn’t this where you draft an offensive lineman?

4^th Round – QB Tom Savage, Pittsburgh – Buzzy. With Tom Brady susceptible to temporal physics and Ryan Mallett sure to leave after the 2014 season it makes sense to look for a QB of the not too distant future.

6^th Round – RB Tyler Gaffney, Stanford – Comes from a program that runs a pro set so he should be able to pick up the blitz and get out in the flat and catch the ball. Sub-7 second in the three cone drill and we know Bill Belichick loves him some three cone drill. Also, need the depth.

7^th Round – DE Larry Webster, Bloomsburg State – An intriguing possibility. Webster’s father was a pro and he has the frame to fill out and fit the classic Belichickian end of the line player.

These mock drafts will all change at least two maybe three times between now and when Commissioner Goodell strides to the podium. Nobody really knows of course. They’re just guessing. So many possible futures. So many variables. So many dreams.

I can hardly wait.