Sunday, April 13, 2014

I'm Feeling Pretty Good About This

As Paul Simon once sang, “When something goes right, well it’s likely to lose me. It’s apt to confuse me. It’s such an unusual sight.” It’s also statistically unlikely but what if everything does go right for the Patriots in 2014?


We got news that Rob Gronkowski’s recovery is on schedule this week. Given Gronk’s history, it’s hard to be more than cautiously optimistic. The glass is half full, maybe even 51% full but probably not much more than that. I’m not counting on Gronk as a Week 1 starter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he spends a little time on the PUP list but I’m also not forgetting how good Gronk looked during his brief stint on the playing field in 2013. Even with a brace on his right knee I believe he will still be a dominant force whenever he returns to action.

Then there was Gil Brandt on NFL.com putting Aaron Dobson on his second-year leap list. The 75 catch/1,000 yard prediction from Brandt seems wildly optimistic in the context of Dobson’s foot surgery which will keep him from full participation in the off season program. I’ve been thinking Dobson might also start the season on the PUP list and penciling in 50 catches. Gil Brandt knows more about football than I do, right?

Today, Mike Reiss on ESPN Boston got me to thinking that maybe Duron Harmon could be at least a poor man’s Rodney Harrison. In his rookie season, Harmon hardly embarrassed himself while backing up Steve Gregory in 2013. Might he also make the leap in 2014?

How about some other wishful thinking for 2014?

Stevan Ridley puts his fumbling problems behind him and returns to 1,200-yard form.
There’s plenty of precedent for Ridley improving ball security (Tiki Barber and Kevin Faulk immediately come to mind). He’ll be playing for his next contract so we should expect the best from Ridley in 2014. 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns are not out of the question should he start all 16 games.

Shane Vereen leads all running backs in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
Vereen will also be playing for a contract in the upcoming season. The only thing that could slow him down would be getting bitten by the injury bug again in 2014. If he stays healthy, Vereen could be the best 3rd down back New England has ever had. Yeah, I know that’s a bold statement but we’re in best case scenario mode here, okay?

Danny Amendola starts 14+ games with 70+ catches.
It’s easy to forget that Amendola played a full 16 game season earlier in his career given more recent events. I’m still sticking with my thought that the chemistry issues with Tom Brady are wildly overblown. Amendola is still bigger, faster and younger than Wes Welker. It’s been a full year. Can we all just stop looking at Amendola like he’s “the other woman” and move on?

Julian Edelman proves 2013 was no fluke.
If Dobson and Amendola get more receptions in 2014 it makes sense that Jules’ numbers will suffer in 2014 but there will undoubtedly be stretches in games – perhaps entire games – where Brady will lock onto Edelman and with good reason. Edelman has earned Brady’s full and unwavering trust. Edelman’s experience returning punts makes him a threat to score once he has the ball in the open field. Throw him the ball!

Michael Buchanan establishes himself as the Patriots sub-package DE and picks up 6+ sacks.
Optimistic? Optimistic. After all, New England had to bring back Belichick binky Andre Carter to back up Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich when Buchanan proved his brain had yet to catch up with his rather impressive physical gifts. If he can play with a little more discipline Buchanan could become a force in sub packages and provide some relief for Jones and Ninkovich who can’t be expected to play 90% of the snaps on defense again in 2014.

Josh Boyce finishes Top 5 in kick-off returns.
If the best case scenarios for Dobson, Amendola, Edelman and Gronk play out, it will be hard for Boyce to get many snaps on offense but he goes into the off-season program as the Patriots’ best option to return kicks in 2014. Granted, the kick-off return isn’t what it used to be but it is still a big play waiting to happen (Boyce has the speed to score from his own end zone) and can be a critical element in establishing field position. As a Top 5 kick-off return specialist, Boyce could be critical to New England’s success in 2014.

Jerod Mayo is Jerod Mayo again.
Mayo is a glue guy. Haters complain that he isnt a playmaker but he is a tackling machine. Any you know what a tackle means? It means that guy didn't score. Mayo is still a three-down linebacker and having him back on the field can only help Donta Hightower and Jamie Collins be all that they can be in 2014.

Vince Wilfork comes back big from his Achilles injury.
It’s not easy to come back from an Achilles injury, especially when you’re putting 350 pounds of pressure on that surgically repaired tendon. It’s probably too much to expect the 2012 Vince Wilfork, even in a best case scenario but if this is about heart and soul, it’s hard to doubt Vince Wilfork. I would expect to see Sealver Siliga spell Big Vince on 3rd downs to manage his snaps and keep him fresh against the run on 1st and 2nd down. With Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner in the secondary, teams are sure to try to run against the Patriots defense, making a comeback year by Wilfork a key for 2014. Speaking of Revis and Browner…

By mid-November, Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner are being called the best starting tandem at cornerback.
Okay, I’m not exactly going out on a limb with this one. Revis is a given. He was the top cornerback in the league in his first year back from an ACL injury. He’s essentially in a contract year and could well put together the best season of his career in 2014. Browner is more of a wild card, given his four-game suspension to start the season. With Revis on the other side of the field, Browner could have a chance to lead the league in interceptions – in twelve games – because opposing quarterbacks are sure to throw wherever Revis isn’t. Revis and Browner also push Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan into sub packages along with last year’s nickel CB Kyle Arrington. When facing the pass-wackiest offenses in the league (I’m looking at you, Denver), the Patriots can put five quality cornerbacks on the field. Daddy like!

Okay, that’s a lot to go right. A potential Comeback of the Year award for Rob Gronkowski doesn’t mean the Patriots can ignore the tight end position in the draft. New England needs depth at safety, linebacker and the defensive line and could stand to use some help on the offensive line. The good news is that there’s plenty of all of that in this year’s draft because, you know, it's the deepest draft in 10 years.

That's what I heard.

Where is this year’s Super Bowl?

Everyone whos been talking about this as the best thing ever is pretty close to right.



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