Waiting for the First Shoe to Drop

Essentially, nothing has happened so far other than the Patriots not applying the franchise tag to any of their free agents. Yes, the Combine has come and gone and pigskin pundits and bobbleheads are pumping out mock drafts at a dizzying pace but the all important Pro Days have yet to transpire. Oh, and the NFL bumped the salary cap to $130m+ for 2014. So, yes, those things have happened but until March 11^th when free agency kicks off all fans can do is wait. Hope their own team’s free agents re-sign. And worry. And make supplications to the pigskin gods that their team trades for Darrelle Revis. Okay, maybe that’s just me.

The new cap figure is apparently bad news for the Patriots relative to resigning Aqib Talib. Personally, I didn’t give New England much of a shot at keeping Talib before. My feeling is that some other team will pay more than the Patriots are willing to, regardless. Talib’s history of untimely injuries argues against overpaying as it will constrain New England’s ability to build quality depth. If Talib is your #1/shutdown corner, you have to have a #2 corner who can step up to the #1 role and the depth to back fill. Think of the Jets when they had Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie opposite Darrell Revis. The Patriots will make a competitive offer but it would be hard to blame Talib for getting paid. And he will. On March 11^th. Just not by the Patriots.

Will Logan Ryan, Alfonzo Dennard and Kyle Arrington be enough at cornerback? If by “enough” we mean getting to the Super Bowl the answer is no, of course. That answer changes to maybe if the Pats could upgrade at safety. If they aren’t going to overpay for Talib, though, we can rightly assume they are out of the Jairus Byrd/T.J. Ward sweepstakes. The best safeties in the draft, Calvin Pryor and Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix, are off the board in the first 20 on the mocks I’ve seen (though this consensus “big board” has Pryor available when New England makes the 29^th pick).

Maybe Duron Harmon makes the second year leap.

Yeah, I’m going to need something better to hold onto than that heading into training camp.

On the other hand, the $10m bump in the cap for 2014 might be good news for retaining Julian Edelman. Will Amendola dollars lock him up? Or does the Kent State QB move on if the Cleveland Browns, who just excised troubled and troublesome slot receiver Davone Bess, park a Ferrari with a trunkful of cash in his driveway?

The consensus in Patriots Nation is that Belichick can’t strip Tom Brady of his favorite receiver two years in a row. Personally, I don’t think Tom Terrific’s psyche is that fragile, nor do I think his window is closing this year or next. Taking into account the view from the outside that the Patriots could plug anyone into the slot with Brady under center and they will produce 100 catches, 1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs. In other words, Edelman’s numbers are inflated by the Patriots’ offensive system, meaning he’s more valuable to New England than to other franchises. I’m not sure that view gives enough credit to Troy Brown, Wes Welker or Julian Edelman but it’s worth noting the Patriots have depth in the slot with Josh Boyce and redshirt rookie T.J. Moe.

If I had to guess – and I am guessing – I’d guess that Edelman is gone, too. I just hope he doesn’t sign with the Jets.

As for LeGarrette Blount, I’d like to see him in a Patriots’ uniform again next year. He’s got a little less mileage than most 29-year old running backs so while the NFL actuarial charts tell us Blount’s days are numbered, I don’t think there’s too much risk in signing Blount to a three-year deal. Given his age, the likelihood this is his last best chance at a big payday and the opportunity he created for himself with his 2013 performance, he should sign with the highest bidder. He seemed to have found his place in Foxborough last year and maybe that makes a difference. Maybe the devaluation of the running back position in current NFL offensive schemes depresses his value in the market. He is still carries that “troubled” label despite his recent record of good behavior and that may give pause to some GM’s when Maurice Jones-Drew, Knowshon Moreno, Darren McFadden and Ben Tate are available.

Wishful thinking on my part?

You bet.  

Assuming there’s anything to the chatter about reworking Vince Wilfork’s deal I would think something would happen soon to free up cap space for free agency. Maybe not; maybe nothing happens till just before the draft. In the meanwhile, the cost/benefit debate on Big Vince will continue. There’s the opinion that Wilfork’s skills were diminishing before the Achilles injury and we need to face the pigskin facts. There are also metrics that showed the New England defense was significantly better against the run with Wilfork on the field. His leadership in the locker room should also be taken into account. But those that support Wilfork’s return acknowledge that his $11m cap hit is unsustainable, even under the new cap.

Restructuring Wilfork’s deal makes the most sense for both parties but my experience on this earthly plane tells me that’s no guarantee a deal will actually get done. If New England releases Wilfork, what would he fetch on the open market? He’s 32-years old, he’s coming off the season-ending Achilles injury and he’s a two down player. On the other hand, if the Pats cut Wilfork, they will have lost their two best run defenders (assuming Brandon Spikes is gone, which has already been filed under “Foregone Conclusions”). This would qualify as less than ideal.

Sentiment argues for Wilfork’s return but Bill Belichick is a famously unsentimental man.

The waiting gets harder as other teams make moves, of course. Wait! Let me go refresh my browser. Maybe the Patriots have finally cut Isaac Sopoaga!

Nope.