Sunday, March 23, 2014

Waiting By The Telephone

So, I guess I understand how women feel waiting for that call after the first date. The first week of free agency was amazing and it seemed to promise so much more. And then? Nothing. Why doesnt he call?


Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads seemed to believe New England would restructure several deals to free up cap space for the other pieces they needed to add (veteran DE to spell Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich, a DT, interior O-Line help, a linebacker). Big Vince would not be coming back with an $11.4m cap hit. Devin McCourty was due a long-term extension. Maybe you save $1m by re-working Stephen Gostkowski’s deal. Other than a bobblehead on WEEI saying last week that he knew a guy who knew a guy that he trusted that Wilfork and the Patriots had worked out a everything but the fine print, there’s been no news and few rumors to suggest that anything is happening on the cap side.

Of course, New England keeps its secrets better than the NSA so who knows, really?

Big Vince
If Jared Allen signs with Seattle for $8.0m (I’m guessing he wants $10m) I won’t be the only one doing the math.

Maybe Wilfork is on or ahead of schedule in rehabbing his ruptured Achilles tendon. Maybe his underwhelming performance before the Achilles blew was due to injury (a torn but not yet ruptured Achilles?). Maybe he can return to Pro Bowl form.

It’s a lot of maybes.

It’s a deep draft, with mockers split between TE Jace Amaro and a Pu-Pu Platter of D-Liners Louis Nix III, Ra’Shede Hageman and Stephen Tuitt. A replacement for Big Vince could be found with the #29 pick. Another wild card in all of this is Armond Armstead. It’s hard to count on a guy who’s never done anything over a guy with a curriculum vitae dotted with Pro Bowls but it’s also hard to ignore Armstead’s cap-friendly potential. Armstead isn’t a big bodied run stuffer but put him in a rotation with Tommy Kelly and Sealver Siliga with Chris Jones and Joe Vellano for depth and okay, that’s arguably the worst DT depth chart in the AFC East. Better than Miami? Okay, third best. That doesn’t really sound that much better, does it?

Wendell & Connolly
Advanced stats would indicate the Patriots had one of the worst centers and one of the worst guards in the NFL last year in Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly. Wendell is a free agent who has yet to take a visit (perhaps a reflection of the nerdification of NFL front offices) and Connolly is due $4.4m in 2014, making him a favorite of the torch and pitchfork crowd. Connolly has played in the pivot so New England could run out a starting five of Nate Solder, Logan Mankins, Connolly, Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer.

We could also see last year’s starting five again in 2014. Given the lack of suitors in free agency, Wendell could return to New England. As poorly as Wendell and Connolly are regarded by advanced stats, they were also mainstays on the NFL’s #7 offense in 2013 (#3 in scoring).

Did I mention that it was a deep draft? If the Cowboys could find a starting center in the draft last year, is it so hard to believe the Patriots could find a starting center or guard in this year’s draft? It seems a good bet that one of their draft picks will be spent on the offensive line but if we kick off 2014 with Wendell and Connolly as starters, I’ll find a way to live with it.

LeGarrette Blount
The latest news on Blount has him visiting Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Pittsburgh tied for 27th and Baltimore ranked 30th in rushing yards per game in 2013. The Steelers can afford to overpay for Blount. Why hasn’t this happened already?

I’m going to miss him.

Kenny Britt
Troubled but talented WR Kenny Britt has visited every team in the northeast and returned home without a contract. If he’s expecting anything more than what Hakeem Nicks got from Indianapolis (1 year/$3.5m with incentives up to $5m) he only confirms his reputation for being seriously mental. Given the baggage Britt brings with him, even Nicks’ contract might be considered delusional.

Brandon LaFell got it right when he said that Tom Brady sealed the deal with New England. If Britt is serious about saving his career he would be wise to sign with a team that has a QB who can put the ball in his hands.

If the contract numbers are right (1 year, incentive-laden) then Britt’s size and big-play potential are intriguing. Otherwise, good luck in Carolina with Cam Newton coming off ankle surgery or in Oakland where Matt Schaub is the latest attempt to find the next Rich Gannon.

Turning Sour Grapes into Champagne
The Carolina Panthers have lost all three of their top pass catchers from 2013, including Brandon LaFell, who signed with the Patriots. The Panthers have done little to find replacements in free agency but they clearly feel they could do better than Steve Smith, Ted Ginn and LaFell. Few would argue that Brandon LaFell is a #1 WR and he may simply be Aaron Dobson insurance but if the Tom Brady Effect pushes LaFell to a 60 catch, 750 yard, 6 TD season, will any of us care how stiff his hips are?

Okay, I hear you. 60 receptions for Brandon LaFell? Yeah, that’s crazy talk. I’ll be happy if LaFell, Dobson, Danny Amendola, Shane Vereen and Rob Gronkowski are all in the 45-55 catch range in 2014. It would be hard for Julian Edelman to replicate his 2013 numbers given that scenario but on the whole, that would be a very good thing.



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