Dickensian Dominoes

So it begins. The Combine. Franchise tags. Salary cap cuts. Free agent fits. Mock drafts. The time of year when even Cleveland Browns’ fans can think “Super Bowl” and “yeah, it could happen” in the same sentence with at least a glimmer of optimism. It’s that Dickensian time of the NFL year. For some it’s the best of times; for others, not so much. If you’re a veteran cut by the Browns, you’ve got a shot at signing with a winner. If you’re a veteran cut by the Seahawks, well, your Super Bowl party is officially over.

 

Well, Patriots Nation won’t have Steve Gregory to scapegoat any more. Gregory was consistently hammered in commentary by New England’s fans. I think Gregory had moxie and overall played better than most of us gave him credit for. His sin was lacking the game-breaking athleticism that would’ve translated that moxie into concussive tackles, forced fumbles and assorted game-breaking plays. Gregory was so routinely abused by the commentariat that it became the consensus. The Patriots have to upgrade at Gregory’s position! Unrealistic scenarios that led to Jairus Byrd signing with the Patriots were called into sports radio in the same way that Larry Fitzgerald would be catching passes from Tom Brady with the Pats giving up Danny Amendola, Steven Ridley and a 1^st round pick.

The Patriots do need to give Devin McCourty a sidekick, with the stress on kick. New England has been looking for the next Rodney Harrison ever since Rodney Harrison. Gregory was never going to be Harrison and $3.6m is $3.6m.

We’ll always have The Butt Fumble. Best. Thanksgiving. Ever.

Gregory’s release in some ways seems inevitable in its immediate aftermath. The search for the next Rodney Harrison continues.

Undoubtedly, Steve Gregory will not be the only cap casualty from the 2013 Patriots’ roster. I can’t help wonder what this might mean for Dan Connolly and his unseemly cap hit. Assuming Sebastian Vollmer is back 100% in 2014, Marcus Cannon could make his long anticipated move inside to guard to replace Connolly. Even if Vollmer is slow to return, there’s hardly a more fungible position group in the NFL than the offensive line. There may not be a Brian Waters out there but between free agency, the draft and the players currently on the roster, the Patriots will find the player(s) they need to protect Tom Brady. I thought Connolly would’ve been cut before Gregory, in part to fund the contract for Aqib Talib. Or Darrell Revis, if you’ll believe a story that sounds an awful lot like those “Larry Fitzgerald traded to New England” stories. Let’s have Fitzgerald and Revis Island, too!

You know, I took a few moments to consider that possible (if unlikely) future. It felt good.

Like Steve Gregory, free agent center Ryan Wendell is better known for his brain than his brawn. At the moment, it would seem the Patriots are prepared to move on from Wendell. Could Connolly move back to center? Would that be swapping one problem for another? I wonder if the Patriots are willing to pay Connolly $4m regardless of the position he plays.

In an equally speculative story, Danny Amendola is being “floated in trade talks.” Cutting Amendola would have serious cap implications (like $5m in dead money) and Amendola and Tom Brady supposedly hear Taylor Swift’s “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” in their heads whenever they see each other so buyers know they’re going to buy low. The Patriots don’t have move Amendola, of course, so they can wait for a deal they like to come along and if it doesn’t, well, I’ve got to believe all those “trust issues” Brady has with Amendola are seriously overblown.

Seriously, I’ve got to believe that.

Anyway, it could be the Patriots don’t want to pay both Amendola and Julian Edelman and they’re looking to see what they might get to clear Amendola from the cap. If that should happen they could make an offer that would retain Jules who we all know Tom Terrific loves.

Other teams are letting go of highly salaried veterans, too. These newly minted free agents are often linked to the Patriots because (a) what veteran of a long-suffering franchise like former Cleveland Brown D’Qwell Jackson wouldn’t want to join a franchise with a legitimate Super Bowl chance and (b) the Patriots take advantage of this and often squeeze a highly productive year or two out of these solid pigskin citizens for short money. Maybe the Patriots shed Steve Gregory to take on Jackson.

Speculation, of course.

Much, much more to come in free agency before we get to the draft but with the Combine just having ended and pigskin pundits and bobbleheads breaking out mock drafts in earnest, it’s impossible to ignore the chatter. The recurring theme for this year’s draft is that it is deep with talent, perhaps historically so. As Patriots’ fans, we all know that means don’t we? Bill Belichick will be trading down, exchanging the 29^th pick in the 1^st round for as many 2^nd’s and 3^rd’s he can get.

It could be that the one player Belichick wants falls to him, in which case, I’m sure he would make the pick, but who is that one player?

The Patriots would like to upgrade at safety but will either of the elite safeties – Hasean Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor – still be on the board when New England is on the clock? Seems unlikely. Let’s hope Duron Harmon makes that second year leap.

The Pats also need to upgrade the D-Line. Stephon Tuitt might be able to play DT in a 4-3 but looks like a better fit in the 3-4. Depth behind Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich? You’re probably not spending a 1^st round pick on depth. A replacement for Ninkovich in a year or two? Maybe. Louis Nix III has an arthritic knee and still might not be available at 29. Ra’Shede Hageman is a physical freak but seems as likely to be out of the league in three years as he is to become a perennial all pro. I like Aaron Donald but given his Combine results and the highlights I’ve seen on YouTube, he could be gone in the first fifteen picks. Given his lack of prototypical size, he could also fall to the 2^nd or 3^rd round. He’s smaller than Chris Jones and Joe Vellano and we saw how those two got pushed around by NFL offensive lines in 2013. All of a sudden I’m not liking Aaron Donald all that much.

With Rob Gronkowski’s near- and long-term future in doubt and the lack of depth and diversity of skill sets on the roster, tight end has become the third key area where New England would look to improve through the draft. The good news is there are plenty of options available. The good bad news is that they all seem to have an issue that may push them down the draft board. Well, I don’t think Eric Ebron falls out of the first fifteen despite his failure to launch at the Combine. I’m not sold on Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who turned up at the Combine with a broken foot. Jace Amaro has most frequently been mocked to New England by pigskin pundits and bobbleheads. But Amaro had a disappointing Combine and his negatives – including smallish hands – are noteworthy. Amaro looks a bit like Aaron Hernandez on tape but I think I’d still rather hear the names of Baby Gronk’s Troy Niklas’ or C.J. Fiedorowicz’s called. Fiedorowicz looked like a lock for New England’s 2^nd round pick until he blew up the Combine. Now I’m afraid he’s too rich for the 29^th pick but won’t be around when the Patriots are on the clock in the 2^nd. Maybe if Belichick does trade down he picks up a mid-2^nd rounder for Fiedorowicz. Then again, if New England is really looking to replace Hernandez they may look at Colt Lyerla, a gifted athlete with emotional and off-the-field problems but that’s probably a 4^th or 5^th round decision, if that.

So maybe I could talk myself into Stephon Tuitt or even Ra’Shede Hageman, Troy Niklas or Jace Amaro but I think for once I might just be relieved rather than disappointed to hear the Commish say, “New England has traded the 29^th pick to…”