Destiny Divides and Conquers

The wild, wild, Wild Card games are in the books. And what did we learn? For one thing, we learned the Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles and Packers will not be winning the Super Bowl this year. Thanks for playing.

 

New Orleans 20, Seattle 31

Seattle’s defense is just a wee bit better than Philadelphia’s. Call me crazy but I think that probably makes the difference. Look, we’ve seen this movie before, haven’t we? Marshawn Lynch rumbles for 120+ yards, Russell Wilson makes a “did you see that!?!” play (or two), and Seattle’s defense spends most of their day helping Drew Brees up off the ground. Seattle didn’t just beat New Orleans in the Week 13 match up. The Seahawks demolished the Saints. This wasn’t a game that could’ve gone either way. So, are the Saints telling themselves it was just a bad day at the office and the Week 13 game means nothing?

Technically, that’s true, of course. Each of the games in question is an independent event; the points don’t roll over. And that’s probably the best thing that can be said from a Saints’ perspective.

Even if they were set on Brees’ blind side (and they’re not) I’d be concerned if I were a Saints’ fan. New Orleans has a decent running game but that’s now what they want to do. That’s not who they are. New Orleans is Jimmy Graham dunking over the crossbar. And Drew Brees needs to remain upright if Jimmy Graham is going to take it to the hoop. I think the Saints are going to have to throw an inordinate amount of screens and consistently gain yardage doing it. If Darren Sproles gains 100+ yards from scrimmage on draws and screen passes before Earl Thomas knocks him out of the game, the Saints win. When Brees does take his chances downfield – and you know he’ll try – he’ll need to convert.

Not that it’s likely to be easy in any case. The Seahawks have the #1 Total Defense and the #1 Passing Defense for 2013. They led the NFL with a Give Away/Take Away of +20. Their 28 interceptions also led the league. When you’re only giving up 14.4 points a game (yes, also the #1 mark), you aren’t giving up a lot of dunks.

Perhaps more importantly, it’s pretty clear that Seattle is New Orleans’ kryptonite. The Seahawks’ defense just consistently wins more of the matchups with the Saints’ offense.

As they apparently do against most other NFL offenses.

Chances I’m Wrong About This One: 3%.

Drew Brees is a great quarterback. He could have the best game of his career on Saturday. He’d need some help, of course (I’m looking at you, Mark Ingram) but it’s possible. Though not likely against Seattle’s Legion of Boom. Still, if these teams played 100 times in Seattle and the Seahawks won 97 of them, this Saturday only has to be 1 of those other 3 games for New Orleans.

So, there’s a chance. A 3% chance.

                                 

Indianapolis 17, New England 30

Andrew Luck is awesome! The moment he picked up that fumble I knew he was going to score. No lie. That was a moment. Chills. Seriously.

Also, the Patriots are saddled with the worst QB left in the playoffs so there’s that.

I’ve tried to reassure myself by noting the 44 points the Colts gave up to the Chiefs. If Alex Smith, without Jamaal Charles, can hang 40+ points on the Indianapolis’ defense, Perfect Tommy and the Brady Bunch should be able to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard, too. It only makes sense. Perhaps that’s why I’m feeling uncomfortable about this. The NFL playoffs are hardly sensible. Logic does not apply. Single elimination tournaments have a way of making the impossible possible. And while I happily agree with the notion that there is no statistical evidence for “clutch” or “momentum,” my eyes would suggest otherwise.

Andrew Luck is definitely clutch and the Indianapolis Colts look like a body in motion from this perspective.

So, as a Patriots’ fan, I am not taking the Colts lightly. In fact, I would suggest that someone on the New England roster not named Tom Brady needs to have the best game of their career if the Patriots are going to carry the day. I was listening to WEEI on the way home and I believe it was Michael Holley who noted that it’s easy to look back on that 2001 team and think they were loaded on defense but that judgment is clouded by the 2003-04 teams. In 2001, Tedy Bruschi was Dane Fletcher, playing because the starters ahead of him were hurt. Willie McGinest had been something of a disappointment. Richard Seymour was a rookie. Mike Vrabel was just another cast off Belichick had picked off the NFL’s trash heap. This Saturday, who will stake their claim on our next decade memories? Who will radio talk show callers ten years hence be thinking of when they talk about this 2013 team being loaded? Dont’a Hightower? Sealver Siliga? Logan Ryan? Jamie Collins? I’m expecting Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Devin McCourty and Aqib Talib to play well but perhaps one of them will play out of his mind and have a career day.

For a defense that has lost so many starters to injury, there is no shortage of potential heroes. If I have to pick just one from the list above (and I started this so I pretty much have to) I’ll go with Hightower (and yes I’m already regretting not picking Logan Ryan). It always seemed the long term plan was to have Hightower take Brandon Spikes’ place in the middle, it’s just happening faster than we thought it would. Hightower’s bigger and faster and lately he sounds like he’s ready to show why he was a first round pick in 2011.

Someone not named Tom Brady will need to step up on offense as well.

It’s easy to point to LeGarrette Blount following his break out game against the Bills in Week 17 but let’s not forget how well Stevan Ridley ran the ball that day, too. It seems a foregone conclusion New England will run the football this Saturday. If they’re successful, they will limit Andrew Luck’s opportunities, reduce the number of times Tom Brady is placed in harm’s way and make play action that much more effective. Weather will be a factor though not in the form of snow or wind but rain. Advantage, running game. Of course, Bill Belichick knows that you know that he knows that you know that he knows it will be raining this Saturday.

Not that it will ever come up but I would never play roshambo with Belichick because, let’s face it; you’ve already lost. Just buy the Coke’s and be done with it.

Could Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins or Austin Collie become the unlikely hero on offense, thanks to a heavy dose of Blount and Ridley and deft play action fakes from Tom Brady? If so, I’m hoping its Thompkins working outside the number for some scoring plays. I’m counting on Julian Edelman to play well (Darius Butler? Please!) but I wonder who Indianapolis has that can cover Shane Vereen out of the backfield. I suppose Vereen having a career day wouldn’t be the biggest surprise as he’s flashed game-breaking skills on occasion. Week 1 against Buffalo he ran 14 times for 101 yards and caught 7 passes for 58. Week 14 against Cleveland he caught 12 passes for 153 yards. Yeah. That sounds good.

Back in 2001, it seems to me they made a lot of plays on special teams, too. There’s some big play potential in Matthew Slater covering kicks. And Gostkowski has been money. It’s been a while since Julian Edelman has returned a punt for a touchdown, hasn’t it?

Deep blue hero time, boys.

Chances I’m Wrong About This One: 80%.

I can’t be objective about this.

San Francisco 13, Carolina 10

It’s hard to tell which is the best team in the NFC right now; Seattle or San Francisco? They share similar profiles – elite defenses, run-oriented offenses, young, mobile big play quarterbacks – which should make an “apples to apples” comparison easier but I’d be hard-pressed to give you a definitive answer. This would seemingly bode ill for your first time callers to the playoffs, Riverboat Ron Rivera’s Carolina Panthers.

Carolina isn’t too shabby on defense, either, which probably goes a long way to explaining the Panthers 10-9 win over the 49ers Week 10 in Candlestick. In fact, the Panthers seem to fit the profile, too; elite defense (ranked #2 in total defense for 2013), run-oriented offense, and Cam Newton playing the role of young, mobile big play quarterback.

It’ll come down to small differences. Steve Smith is banged up. That will be enough to tip the scales.

Chances I’m Wrong About This One: 49%.

It looks like it will be a close, low-scoring game. It could break one way or the other on one play. Kaepernick and Newton are both capable of making that play. I like whoever has the ball last.

San Diego 27, Denver 55

The Chargers may be overvalued. Seems like lately more than a few pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have been saying, “Sure. I could see it happening. They did it before.” Yeah. They did it before. Good point. Okay. Yeah. This is the very definition of wishful thinking. Philip Rivers has been great and who doesn’t love Danny Woodhead, whose picture is listed first whenever you search for “scrappy” on Google Images. Ryan Mathews had arguably his best year as a pro, Antonio Gates is still balling and rookie WR Keenen Allen is the real deal. The Chargers are fun. They wear classic AFL uniforms. Philip Rivers is a bolo tie-wearing loon. I love these guys! I just can’t see them taking out the Broncos, even if they did do it once before. Manning is on a mission from God. He just put the regular season record book through an industrial strength paper shredder. That was just a start. He wants to seal the deal on his legacy as the greatest QB to ever play the game. One more championship. One more MVP. I think Manning destroys the Chargers’ defense. 7 TD passes, tying his own (and several other’s) record for Most TD Passes (Game).

Chances I’m Wrong About This One: 12.5%.

Denver’s defense is susceptible and the Chargers offense is capable of running clock and keeping Peyton Manning on the sidelines (they’ve done it before!). No doubt less important but noteworthy nonetheless, the Chargers would appear to be destiny’s darling. You know what they say about destiny.

It’s karma, baby.

What if Peyton Manning has a bad game or maybe he has a good game but Welker and Moreno get hurt or Ryan Clady and Zane Beadles both go down with injuries or maybe the defense just can’t stop the Chargers and the Broncos lose. Another one and done for Peyton Manning.

Destiny?