Wild Cards

We’re all 0-0 now.

 

Kansas City 27, Indianapolis 37 – I think the Chiefs are ready to declare 2013 a success regardless of what happens this Saturday in Indianapolis. The Colts on the other hand know they’re just getting started. The psychological edge goes decisively to Indianapolis, perhaps a bigger advantage than the one they have at quarterback. Much has been made of KC’s turnaround from 2-14-0 in 2012 to 11-5-0 in 2013 and certainly Andy Reid – and Alex Smith – deserve some credit but let’s not forget the Chiefs faced a last place schedule in 2013 and if memory serves, they had six pro bowlers in 2012 so it’s not like Reid found the cupboard bare when he arrived in Kansas City. The Chiefs beat exactly one team in the playoffs in 2013 and that was Philadelphia in Week 3. They lost twice to Denver, twice to San Diego (though that second loss deserves an asterisk) and to their Wild Card hosts two weeks ago at Arrowhead. The Colts sport an identical 11-5-0 record and played in a much weaker division but they are battle tested, with wins over Seattle, San Francisco and Denver. Their poor showing Week 14 in Cincinnati may have been the Zen slap the Colts needed as they enter the playoffs on a three-game winning streak, beating up on Houston, Kansas City and Jacksonville by a composite score of 78 to 20. Alex Smith doesn’t get the love he deserves and this game is unlikely to change that. Andrew Luck will put up big numbers in his first playoff win but this game will ultimately come down to Chuck Pagano putting together a defensive game plan to stop Jamaal Charles. Chances I’m Wrong About This One: 10%. I realize I’m biased in my favor here but this feels like it’s already happened.

New Orleans 35, Philadelphia 24 – Let’s face it, the Eagles losing this game is just too Philadelphia for it not to happen. I know the Saints haven’t won a road playoff game in forever but that’s the thing about streaks; good or bad they always end. NOLA head coach Sean Peyton and QB Drew Brees are highly motivated to put their reputation as road kill in the rear view. They certainly have the offensive weapons necessary to wreak havoc on most NFL defenses, let alone Philadelphia’s 29^th ranked unit (32^nd against the pass). It will be cold but otherwise the 5-day forecast calls for the best weather the Saints could hope for this Saturday with clear skies and a light breeze. Unfortunately for New Orleans, the long term prognosis calls for two more road games and I’m giving the Saints less than a 10% chance to make it rain. (Rimshot.) Chances I’m Wrong About This One: 49%. I could see this go the other way. When the Eagles offense is good it’s very, very good. Scary good. Diabolically good. But when the defense is bad, it doesn’t matter how good the offense is (and as noted above, the Eagles defense is at their worst against the pass which the Saints are kind of good at). Anyway, noting the Saints’ perceived road woes I could see them pressing and making uncharacteristic mistakes early on. Then there’s the baseline impact of playing in the cold. Nobody likes being cold but the Eagles have already played and won in weather. They rely heavily on the run which is better suited to January football. On the other hand, this would be the first game the Saints will play at 32F or below. There’s a scenario where the Saints struggle early and fall behind by a couple of scores. The Saints won’t quit and would bounce back with Brees putting points on the board but if the Eagles offense can keep pace and trade touchdowns for touchdowns, the Eagles could hold on in a triumph of emotion over statistical analysis.

San Diego 23, Cincinnati 40 – How many times would we see Ryan Succop’s controversial missed field goal if the Chargers magically made it all the way to the Super Bowl? A rhetorical question, of course. The Bengals are undefeated at home and should win this game going away. That was true even before the “motivational” material surfaced. (Okay, the Chargers did lose to the Bengals in the regular season. But revenge? Shouldn’t that be reserved for scenarios where a six-fingered man slaughters your father?) The Philip Rivers redemption is a nice story but you know how those movies end in real life. Cincinnati’s defense makes them a respectable dark horse to make it to the Super Bowl, where they would lose horribly either the Seattle Seahawks or San Francisco 49ers or Green Bay Packers or Carolina Panthers. Okay, they wouldn’t lose horribly to the Panthers but they would still lose. The game would be marked by QB Andy Dalton setting a Super Bowl record for interceptions thrown (game). Whatever that record is Dalton will go +2. And the broadcast will set a twenty-year low in TV ratings. Chances I’m Wrong About This One: 20%. You just get the sense the Chargers know they’re playing with house money. They swept the Chiefs, split with the Broncos, and came away with wins against Indianapolis and Philadelphia in the regular season. (They also have losses to Houston, Tennessee, Oakland and Washington but will ignore those results while we’re being wildly optimistic about the Charger’s chances.) The Chargers have got Keanu Reeves at quarterback and they’re line dancing to 70s disco music in the locker room. They’re winning this game in slow motion. But probably not.

San Francisco 34, Green Bay 21 – Yes, yes. Aaron Rodgers is back. But the Packers’ defense is still very, very bad. They’re bad giving up yards and they’re bad giving up points. San Fran’s offense travels well and their running game comes with the side benefit of burning clock while Aaron Rodgers stands on the sidelines, not being gay. Rodgers looked like his old not gay self last Sunday against the Bears but the Niners’ defense should prove to be a greater challenge. So, the 49ers run the ball effectively, scoring touchdowns and limiting Aaron Rodgers’ opportunities. When Green Bay does have the ball, San Fran’s defense gets enough stops to win the day. Seems simple enough. Chances I’m Wrong About This One: 77%. Rodgers has reached that point where you’re just never surprised by what he does. The 4^th and 8 play he turned into a touchdown against the Bears is the perfect example. And that just happened. Rodgers could just take this game over, hitting big plays to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb; mixing in draws and zone read action with Eddie Lacey. Still, the Packers are going to need their defense to make some stops and it just doesn’t feel like that’s happening.