Roster Rumblings

Roster projections are fun for armchair GM’s like me. Something of a fool’s errand if you’re trying to accurately predict what Bill Belichick is going to do. Sounds so like me. The only errands worth running are the fool's errands

 

The recent post on Pat’s Pulpit got me thinking about the final 53. If I was making the cuts, who am I keeping? There are only a few spots we really need to talk about; aside from the much discussed wide receiver position, most of the starters from 2012 are back. So what are we talking about, seven roster spots? Eight? Let’s break it down…

Tebow!

Can we bring the lights down just a little bit for this? A little bit? Does the piano player know “Desperado,” by the Eagles? Yes? Pianissimo, please.

Tim, I like you I really do. But we need to stay friends. Just friends. You’re a special person and you deserve to find someone special who loves you just the way you are. I’m just not sure I’m that special person. In fact, I think we need some time apart. I’ll call you. No, seriously, I’ll call you.

Okay, for reals, I’d keep Tebow. For now. His trend line is admittedly not good but his ability to run the read option out of the pistol makes him an intriguing insurance policy for Brady. If Ryan Mallett suddenly gets it and plays lights out in the next two preseason games, do I keep Tebow? Maybe not.

I do think it’s worth repeating what I most recently heard Michael Holley of WEEI mention. We’re talking about the 3^rd string QB. I can’t imagine Bill Belichick ever take Tom Brady out of a close game. Brady doesn’t even like to come out of blow outs. If he does sit down for the last five minutes of a game the Patriots are winning by 30+ points, it will be Mallett who comes in to run out the clock. He’s earned that. If the absolutely, completely worst case scenario should occur and both Brady and Mallett become hors de combat, then Tebow, the 3^rd string QB would play.

The question is whether or not you would keep Kamar Aiken, let’s say, instead of a 3^rd string QB named Tim Tebow. It’s a fair question.

But I’ll keep Tebow. For now.

Would I keep a fullback?

It’s been noted that Daniel Fells and Michael Hoomanawanui cost a little over $1m each, leading some to speculate that Belichick might keep but one of the two for salary cap reasons. But they aren’t fungible assets; Fells is more of a pass catcher and Hooman does most of his work blocking, often lining up in the backfield. Enter FB James Develin, who looked good in limited action against the Buccaneers Friday night. Unlike Develin, Hooman really isn’t a threat to take a handoff on the quick trap up the middle in short yardage situations. At 6’ 3” and 250lbs Develin is almost as big as Hooman (6’ 4” and 260) and would provide another threat defenses would have to account for in short yardage.

Develin’s fate is tied to Hoomanawanui’s fate and to understand how or if Hooman sticks I need to look at…

What would I do about Gronkowski and the TE position?

I’m already on record for having Gronk start the season on PUP (and it looks like that may happen); if he’s going to miss six games I’d rather they were the first six than the last six. Zach Sudfeld is a lock. We’re all looking forward to what Tom Brady can do with both Gronkowski and Sudfeld on the field together, aren’t we? That leaves Jake Ballard, Hooman and Fells playing for two spots – one really because somebody will be released when Gronkowski comes off PUP.

Assuming I keep James Develin on the final 53. I can keep two if I cut Develin.

Fells has been something of an enigma wrapped in a disappointment. In 2010, playing for St. Louis, he caught 41 passes on 65 targets for 391 yards. He came to New England with the potential to contribute in the passing game. So, how did that work out? In 2012, he caught 4 passes on 10 targets for 85 yards – a 21.3 yard average. Granted, Fells would probably regress to the mean over a larger data sample but 21.3 yards per catch is still a number that catches the eye. So does 4 catches but not in a good way.

My feeling is that Michael Hoomanawanui has been much more impressive as a blocker than Daniel Fells has been as a receiver. Unlike Fells, there weren’t high expectations for Hooman as a receiving TE. So what did I find when I checked Hooman’s stats? 5 catches on 7 targets for 109 yards – a 21.8 yard average! Again, I’m not arguing Tom Brady should throw the ball more to Hooman or Fells; they’re at best the #9 option after Amendola, Boyce, Dobson, Edelman, Gronk (when healthy), Sudfeld, Thompkins and Vereen.

I am saying it turns out Hoomanawanui has been every bit as effective a receiver as Fells, he’s a better blocker and he’s four years younger. The binary choice is clearly Hooman > Fells.

Jake Ballard had a very nice rookie year all the way up to the moment when he blew his knee out in Super Bowl XLVI. Ballard has started slowly in his return from a year and a half of rehab. He’s been gradually increasing reps in camp and in the preseason games. He’s making progress but I’m wondering if he’ll be 100% for the regular season opener. With Gronk on PUP and Sudfeld terrorizing weak-side linebackers and strong safeties between the hash marks, I can keep Ballard as a hammer in the running game and anything he catches is a bonus.

So, I’m putting Gronk on PUP and I’m keeping Develin, Hooman and Ballard to start the season. When Gronk comes off the PUP list it will come down to what the film from the first six games says about Develin and Hooman. Or somebody will be hurt and go on IR because football players get hurt.

Am I keeping both Blount and Bolden?

Yes.

I’m so over worrying about the wide receivers.

If Brady’s window is three years (or five) as an elite QB then the Patriots look like they did the right thing in revamping the wide receiver position when they did.

Obviously, the performances by the rookies so far – Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce and the out of nowhere Kenbrell Thompkins – make it a lot easier to say that now. Dumping Wes Welker for trophy wife WR Danny Amendola also looks pretty good right now, too. New England is younger, faster and bigger at WR than they were in 2012. They still have to prove it when this all gets real, of course.

I’m looking forward to them making it happen.

So, Amendola, Boyce, Dobson, and Thompkins are inked in. Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater will count against the WR position on the roster but will contribute more on special teams. Edelman’s spot on the roster has been questioned but I think he’s returning punts when the Patriots hit the field Week 1 in Buffalo.

Although they have some intriguing skills and measurables, it seems unlikely Kamar Aiken, Quentin Sims (practice squad?) or Mark Harrison (IR?) makes the final 53 without an injury to one of the names listed above (let’s hope not). Look for Aiken and Sims to wind up in places like Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Cleveland or Kansas City when they get cut by New England.

The starters look good but who’s providing depth on the D-Line?

At defensive end, it’s addition by subtraction from my perspective. In just his second year, it feels like it’s too soon to give up on Jake Bequette and yet, I am. I like Michael Buchanan’s length and athleticism better. Bequette looks like a grinder; Buchanan looks like Woody Strode in Spartacus. As for Jermaine Cunningham, he may be a victim of results vs. expectations more than anything else. As a 2^nd round pick, he was supposed to develop into a starter and a playmaker rather than a backup and a role player. Four years later we’re still waiting for Cunningham to make the leap. Unfortunately for Cunningham, free agent Marcus Benard has looked like the guy Cunningham was always supposed to be; athletic and disruptive off the edge with enough strength to slide inside. The only thing that might help Cunningham – and possibly Bequette – is the lack of depth at defensive tackle.

After Big Vince and Tommy Kelly, things have not gone according to plan at DT. Signing Armond Armstead after his post-grad work in the CFL looked like a stroke of genius until this mysterious infection put him on the sidelines. Marcus Forston hasn’t seemed to make much of a second year leap but seems to have secured a spot almost by default. Mike Reiss went so far as to say that Belichick will be looking at late training camp cuts for veteran help. Not that defensive tackles with a few gallons left in the tank are a plague on the market.   

As disappointing as Cunningham (and to a lesser extent) Bequette have been, I’d be lining them up inside for the rest of the preseason.

The Pats are set at linebacker, aren’t they?

Yes, they are. Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Dont’a Hightower are solid. Dane Fletcher looks like he’s all the way back from his injury/lost season and rookie Jamie Collins looked much more comfortable in his second preseason game, showing up on numerous plays, including a solid 4^th down stop wiped out by a penalty. After that, it’s probably one more from the Pu Pu platter of Niko Koutouvides, Jeff Tarpinian, Mike Rivera and Steve Beauharnais.

I don’t think the fate of Patriots Nation hangs on this particular roster decision. If New England is down to starting one of those five guys at linebacker during the regular season, well, things will have gone horribly, horribly wrong. Consensus seems to point to Beauharnais making the final 53. Belichick did spend a draft pick on Beauharnais and there’s the Rutgers connection. I think we know what we’re getting with Koutouvides, Tarpinian and Rivera at this point (solid on special teams, a step late on defense). Beauharnais might be able to play some reliable snaps on defense, too.

Are you still nervous about the secondary, because I am.

Devin McCourty is finally out of the red, non-contact jersey. The safeties who’ve been playing in the preseason continue to take bad angles; Adrian Wilson is slow and Tavon Wilson is never where he’s supposed to be. Duron Harmon is a rookie and Nate Ebner is a rugby player. Steve Gregory was supposed to be on the bubble, a guy who would be cut because Tavon Wilson was going to make that second-year leap but now looks like one of the safest bets for a spot on the final 53.

Aqib Talib is locked in at one CB spot but Alfonzo Dennard is looking at possible jail time for violating his probation. Ras-I Dowling is hurt. Again. On the plus side, Rutgers Rookie Logan Ryan had a Pick-6 in the Tampa Bay game (his lack of elite speed didn’t seem to be an issue on that play) and I think Kyle Arrington is better than most pigskin pundits and bobbleheads. Marquise Cole will stick in part because of his special teams prowess and in part because he is not hurt or at risk of incarceration.

I’ll admit that I’m not counting on either Dennard or Dowling going forward. I hope I’m pleasantly surprised by Dennard’s August 27 court date but even if he avoids booking a room at the Gray Bar Hotel, the assumption is he’ll be suspended by Roger Goodell for bad publicity. As for Dowling, I’m not sure why I hoped he would be healthy in 2013 when any reasonable (cynical?) person would’ve thought the exact opposite. I think we’ll wind up with someone nobody heard of making the roster at DB for 2013; maybe someone like UDFA Justin Green who put some numbers in the box score against Tampa Bay. Maybe somebody who isn’t even on the roster today. Yikes!

Maybe the pass rush that flashed against the Buccaneers will take some pressure off the DBs in coverage.

Right now, it looks like they’re going to need it.

Special Teams haven’t looked so special so far…

I’m trying to talk myself into believing the issues in kick and punt coverage are the result of the coaches looking at so many players that it’s been difficult to develop and cohesion or consistency. I hope I’m right because I think the long kick and punt returns are a much bigger cause for concern from my perspective than Stephen Gostkowski’s errant FGA in both the Eagles and Bucs games. Not that I feel good about that.

The punting competition between Zoltan Mesko and Ryan Allen appeared to end with Allen’s poor performance against Tampa Bay but given the salary cap implications, I wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick were to keep Allen but I’d really miss having a guy named Zoltan on the team.