Sunday, April 27, 2014

Ahead of Schedule

The 2014 schedule has been released, which was followed closely by pigskin pundits and bobbleheads projecting wins and losses. This despite the fact the draft still awaits, not to mention the inevitable season-ending training camp injury that will hit three or four teams. It’s silly, of course but yeah, here comes my prediction for the Patriots.

 
Prognosticating how the Lions or Buccaneers will finish the regular season is significantly more difficult than predicting the Patriots’ record for two simple reasons; Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Patriots have finished with an average regular season record of 12-4-0 in the 13 seasons Brady has been the starter. New England posted that exact record in the previous two seasons. They have finished below that mark just four times over that thirteen year span. If Vegas sets the line for that Pats at 11-5-0, you should bet the over.

Enough prologue, let’s rub up the crystal ball.

Week 1 at Miami – The Patriots have struggled in Miami over the years and I was thinking this might just be one of the Pats four losses in 2014 but then I remembered what a hot mess the Dolphins’ offensive line is. Maybe you’re thinking Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill and WR Mike Wallace will put up better numbers than their underwhelming 2013 after a year together. If so I have just two words for you. Revis Island. Patriots RB Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen kick of their contract years with big numbers in this one.

Patriots 38, Dolphins 13

Week 2 at Minnesota – Back to back roadies to open the season? I thought Robert Kraft was the shadow commissioner of the NFL. No? Anyway, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson and the Patriots’ rush defense has been remarkable for all the wrong reasons in recent years. Will Big Vince be 100%? How will New England replace Brandon Spikes? Somehow, Belichick comes up with a game plan to stymie Peterson (ten in the box?) and put the game in the hands of the starter to be named later at QB for Minnesota. If Miami’s offensive line is a hot mess, Minnesota’s quarterbacks are a zombie apocalypse.

Patriots 31, Vikings 10

Week 3 vs. Oakland – Despite the fact this is the home opener, if you’re a season ticket holder, you’re probably giving this game to your brother-in-law. The one you don’t like. Unless, of course, the Raiders draft and start Johnny Manziel. That could be entertaining.

Patriots 53, Raiders 9

Week 4 at Kansas City – This seems to be the chalk pick among pigskin cognoscenti for the Patriots first loss of the season; a road game in a tough venue against a 2013 playoff team. I just have a hard time buying Andy Reid and Alex Smith over Belichick and Brady. The Kansas City defense is built to stop the passing offenses in Denver and San Diego so I’m looking for Stevan Ridley to set a career high for rushing yards and TDs in this one.

Patriots 24, Chiefs 20

Week 5 vs. Cincinnati – You’re not giving these tickets to your brother-in-law. New England played arguably their worst game of 2013 in the Queen City and still had a shot at winning the game in the 4th quarter. This is a game Tom Brady will want just a little bit more (if that’s even possible). Patriots’ fans get their first look at Brandon Browner opposite Revis. Ridley and Vereen continue their campaigns for a big contract in free agency.

Patriots 41, Bengals 16

Week 6 at Buffalo – The worst thing Brandon Spikes could’ve done was predict the Bills would sweep the Patriots in 2014. Or was the worst thing Spikes did was compare Bill Belichick to a slave master? Belichick wants to win badly enough as it is without making it personal. The Bills are improving and games in Buffalo have been hard fought for as long as these two teams have been buckling their chinstraps but if you’re looking for an edge in this one, it goes to the Patriots. Brady will put Spikes in coverage every snap he’s on the field as Shane Vereen sets a single game record for receiving yards by a running back.

Patriots 27, Bills 20

Week 7 vs. NY Jets – Playing the Jets is always tough and playing the Jets on a short week is even tougher; having a chance to beat their archrivals in prime time on a Thursday night amps this one to eleven for the Jets. I expect Michael Vick will be starting at QB by Week 6 (if not from Week 1) but I just don’t see WR Eric Decker or RB Chris Johnson as the pieces that put the Jets in the playoffs. Anybody else think Darrelle Revis will be up for this one? If the over/under on interceptions by Revis in this game is 1.5, I’d bet the over. I’d take a prop bet on a Pick 6, too. It will be a physical game, as always, and the running game is likely to be ineffective so Brady will have to win this one. I’m okay with that.

Patriots 24, Jets 14

Week 8 at Chicago – New England will have some extra rest and prep time coming of the Thursday night Jets game and with Belichick and Brady the Patriots haven’t been susceptible to a letdown after a big, emotional game. With their one game at a time approach they typically don’t look past whoever this week’s opponent is but it would be understandable in this case with the Broncos next up. I think Browner and Revis nullify Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler does something crazy at some point. Win ugly? Win ugly.

Patriots 23, Bears 17

Week 9 vs. Denver – Manning! Brady! Brady! Manning! Professional athletes will maintain that they give everything they have in each and every game; they respect their opponents, they respect the game. But they’re human beings, too, and this game means more to the players and coaches of these two teams than any other non-divisional game on their schedule. They will never admit it but these games mean more to Brady and Manning, who are two of the most competitive players in any sport. They want to win whether it’s a Super Bowl or tiddlywinks so when it’s a chance to beat the very best, it’s special. No, they can’t go 1-on-1 like Bird and Magic. It may be closer to the truth to call this Manning vs. Belichick but make no mistake; Peyton Manning knows he’s 5-10-0 in games played against Tom Brady and Tom Brady knows he’s 10-5-0 in games played against Peyton Manning.

Patriots 40, Broncos 37

Week 10 Bye – After that Broncos game I’ll be glad to have a week off.

Week 11 at Indianapolis – Belichick and the Patriots will have two weeks to get ready for the Colts but I fear the human element here as much as I embraced it for the Broncos game. This game will simply mean more to Indy than it will to New England. After nine straight wins, the Patriots are due for a game where they step on their collective dicks. The Patriots will avenge this loss in the playoffs.

Patriots 23, Colts 24

Week 12 vs. Detroit – Unfortunately for the Lions, the Patriots will be wearing their angry eyes for this one. Is Gronk back by this point? Is so, it may not be this close.

Patriots 49, Lions 20

Week 13 at Green Bay – I expect there will be a whole lot of Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady chatter before they tee this one up. Rodgers and Brady won’t bite but that won’t stop the pigskin pundits and bobbleheads from trying to turn this game into a referendum on who should be #1 on ESPN’s next Top 100 NFL Players list. We’ll also get a fair amount of the possible Super Bowl preview talk but if defense wins championships, neither one of these teams is likely to find its way to Glendale. If you like the forward pass, you’ll love this game. Whoever gets the ball last wins.

Patriots 41, Packers 38

Week 14 at San Diego – Again with the back to back roadies! I’m guessing the Chargers will need this game a little more than the Patriots as they’ll be playing for their playoff lives, recovering from their annual slow start (let’s say they’re 2-4-0 after their first six games and 7-6-0 when they tee it up for this one) and chasing Denver and Kansas City in the AFC West.

Patriots 34, Chargers 35

Week 15 vs. Miami – For the second time the Patriots return home from a tough loss and for the second time they take it out on whoever’s in front of them. New England in December is where the Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes go to die. Or be buried in this case.

Patriots 37, Dolphins 17

Week 16 at NY Jets – Do I think the AFC East will hang in the balance when the Jets come to Gillette? No. Do I think the Jets will need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive? No; I think their playoff hopes will be dead by Week 14. Will little brother still want to bloody big brother’s nose? Sure. Will that be enough? No.

Patriots 31, Jets 20

Week 17 vs. Buffalo – With the AFC East locked up, with their playoff position set, Tom Brady starts and puts the exclamation point on an MVP season. He spends the 4th quarter on the sideline, yukking it up with Jules and Gronk.

Patriots 37, Bills 16

That adds up to a 14-2-0 regular season record and home field throughout the AFC playoffs. The Patriots beat the Colts in Gillette for the AFC Championship and go on to beat Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XLIX by a score of 35 to 17 (because I always predict the Patriots will beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl and one of these times I’m going to be right).

Am I an unapologetic homer? Well, yes. It was everything I could do not to predict a 16-0-0 regular season finish for my boys. You seriously didn’t expect anything different, did you?

Here’s my new favorite song…



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