The Dream as Prologue

Somebody’s dream will come true this Thursday night. They’ll hear the commissioner of the NFL read their name aloud from the podium at the 2014 draft. They’ll be a first round pick, a signature on a contract away from a new house for their mom and a new car for themselves. They probably didn’t dream they’d be picked by the New York Jets and booed by their fans.

That sounds more like one of my childhood dreams.

 

As I Patriots fan, I’ve come to hope Trader Bill lives up to his nickname and trades down and out of the first round for more picks on Day 2 and 3. With Pick #29, the best case scenario seems to be someone like offensive guard Xavier Su’a-Filo (safe but so not the sexy). The pigskin cognoscenti have mocked defensive tackle Ra’Shede Hageman to the Patriots as a consensus pick. Hageman seems to me more likely to be the next Albert Haynesworth than the next Mean Joe Greene or even the next Ty Warren. If not Hageman there’s a minority report that has New England taking Vince Wilfork’s heir apparent in XXXXL defensive tackle Louis Nix III. The fact that neither of these two have “high motor” on their curriculum vitae is, to say the least, disconcerting. Then there’s former crush Jace Amaro who has fallen off most pigskin pundits and bobbleheads first round boards but lately was described as an “intriguing” pick for the Pats by NFL Network’s Mike Mayock. Intriguing sounds like you’re describing that friend of your wife you’re trying to convince your best friend to ask out on a date. Crazy upside.

It’s usually one or the other.

Trading down makes sense if this draft is as deep as all the draft gurus say it is. It also makes it harder to do when everybody else is thinking the same thing. Looking at the top of the 2^nd round, it’s hard to find an obvious choice for a trading partner. Will the Texans still be looking for a QB they think might be taken by the Niners, Broncos or Seahawks? (No.) Maybe the Browns passed on Manziel and decide they need to move up for Derek Carr? (They passed on Manziel?) The more I look at this, the less likely it seems to me some GM goes rogue and gives up a high 2^nd round and some combo platter of Day 3 picks for New England’s #29 Thursday night.

It’s difficult to predict what will happen Thursday night, even in the first ten picks. It gets positively random after that. This draft may be deep but it isn’t top heavy so maybe it’s best to take an offensive lineman at #29 whether that’s guards Su’a-Filo or David Yankey or whoever’s left at OT (Joel Bitonio?).

I saw Mel Kiper on ESPN note that the key to a successful draft is using picks to build around your franchise player. (His cautionary tale was David Carr in Houston, with the Texans drafting defense instead of giving Carr a weapon like Reggie Bush.) It seems unlikely a transformative talent at wide receiver falls to New England but what if Kelvin Benjamin, Marquise Lee or Odell Beckham, Jr. is available at #20? The jury is out as far as Aaron Dobson is concerned (and he’s coming off foot surgery). Would Belichick take a running back if top prospect Carlos Hyde is available? I can’t help wonder what Belichick’s old friend Urban Meyer has had to say about Hyde. Let’s not forget Terrell Davis carried John Elway to back-to-back Super Bowl wins when Elway was in his late thirties. Or this: When the NFL zigs, Bill Belichick zags. With NFL defenses built to stop the pass, run the football. A Top 5 rushing attack is a QB’s – and a defense’s – best friend.

Shoring up the offensive line is never a bad idea, whether it’s opening holes for running backs or protecting your franchise QB. The game-changing wide receivers are likely off the board at #29 and even if you are Bill Belichick, do you take a running back in the first round when nobody is comparing that running back to well, anybody you’ve ever heard of?

I know I’m talking myself into it but when a player says he wants to grow up to be Logan Mankins, is that a bad thing?