Thursday, May 26, 2022

Pigskin Candy and Nuts

Ifs and Buts. Seems like there are plenty of those for the 2022 New England Patriots.


And everybody else here on planet Earth.


It's a beautiful day for New England (meaning it would be a crappy day in southern California) and the best time of the year for football fans because our pigskin dreams have yet to be crushed by the cruel reality of actual games being played. As for the good citizens of Patriots Nation, we have little choice but to be aspirational as so much of our football fate rests in the hands of young men who have yet to play their first games as New England Patriots. Linebackers Cameron McGrone, Ronnie Perkins, and Raekwon McMillan; rookie OG Cole Strange and WR Tyquan Thornton along with the CB group or duo of Jack and Marcus Jones; new, de facto WR1 DaVante Parker. 


Not to forget those young men who have played their first games as New England Patriots, but just not very well, like TE Jonnu Smith and WR Nelson Agholor.


There's also the question as to just how high of a second-year leap our unathletic QB Mac Jones can make. Apparently, he's lost some weight so maybe his famously low ceiling is now well within his reach. Then there's promising RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who proved to be a worthy tag-team partner for Damien Harris in 2021, and DL Christian Barmore, who might just leap all the way to the Pro Bowl in 2022. On top of that, there's a young core that may be ready to take another step up and into starting roles this year: S Kyle Dugger, OL Mike Onwenu, and LB Josh Uche.


That adds up to a significant number of ifs for the 2022 New England Patriots, which probably isn't all that different from most NFL franchises, but the Pats have a few buts, too, including "but what if all those ifs don't pan out?" as well as the biggest but of all…


But who's going to call plays on offense?


Josh McDaniels left behind a pretty big headset to fill so it's a fair question, but I don't think we're going to know the answer for the foreseeable future because Bill Belichick enjoys goofing on pigskin pundits and bobbleheads way too much to answer the question any time soon.


Maybe Belichick has already automated play calling. Think about it. How many times have you seen an OC on the sideline with one of those large, laminated, color-coded "cheat sheets" with the offensive game plan organized by situations. First and 10. Second and short, second and long, etc. I assume teams still script an opening drive, plan for two-point conversion attempts, that there are complementary plays with the same formation and one call that sets up another out of that same look. Match up advantages and disadvantages determine which plays work well against Team A but not so well against Team B.  It's just an algorithm built on Monte Carlo simulations. You could build with machine learning so in-game results adjust plays called based on what was successful in the first half and which plays got stuffed, as well as identify and break tendencies over the course of the season. It's not exactly rocket science and every nut with a billion dollars is launching a rocket these days, so why shouldn't this be possible?


I have a general rule about things like this: If I think of it, somebody else has already done it. You know. Like the rocket thing. Okay, who hasn't thought of that?


(I may not be the smartest guy in the room but it works for me because I know I'm not the smartest guy in the room. Also, that "somebody else" almost always has more money than me, which makes the whole doing it thing a lot easier.)


Maybe that somebody who already did it is Bill Belichick. 


My point is, whether it's an app or a color-coded 8x14 call sheet, I'm just not that worried about who will play the role of Offensive Coordinator for the Patriots in 2022. 


I'm way more worried about how the offensive line comes together and whether or not tackles Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown can hold up for the full 17-game season. That's an if worthy of worry.


You know, it would also be fun if they just went with a no huddle/2-minute drill offense for the full game and let McCorkle run the show from the line of scrimmage. You don't think he knows all the second and long calls in the Patriots play book?

 

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