Let me ruin my own metaphor by channeling my inner Belichick: You don't stand on Everest, you have to climb it every year.
It only appears the Patriots are standing atop the NFL's Everest. Pigskin persistence of vision.
Last year's journey to the mountaintop was the craziest, emotional roller coastery, I can't look, I'm going to throw up, what just happened season since the run to SB36 and their first Lombardi Trophy. Of course, in 2001, the good citizens of Patriots Nation had no expectations for our pigskin heroes. We were just happy to be there.
Now the expectation is, at a minimum, an appearance in the AFC Championship.
Okay, let's be real. The expectation is a Super Bowl win. Unrealistic? Yes. Sure. What's your point again?
This year - with Gronk retired, Trey Flowers lost to free agency, and Brian Flores in Miami - may eclipse last year for drama and doubt. There are certainly storylines aplenty heading into the NFL's 100th season for our New England Patriots…
Defense Wins Championships
I'm going to say the Patriots defense will actually be better than last year's crew that played lights out in the playoffs last year against three of the best offenses in the NFL.
Yes, they lost Trey Flowers but they traded for Michael Bennett, drafted Chase Winovich, will have promising 2nd year linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley returning from injury, and brought back the prodigal linebacker, Jamie Collins. Yes, I'm counting on Dietrich Wise, Jr. to step up and I haven't given up on Derek Rivers and I won't until he gets cut during training camp.
As important as the talent is in the front seven (or six), it's the Patriots defensive backfield that will have as much to do with sacking the quarterback as moving Bennett inside with Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, and Jamie Collins blitzing the A gap. Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson, the McCourty twins, Patrick Chung, rookie Joejuan Williams and seriously, I could probably list four or five more names - somebody from this position group is getting traded during training camp - will force opposing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball that extra split second the pass rush will need to get there.
Best Case Scenario: Bennett replaces Flowers' production, Winovich rhymes with Ninkovich, Bentley is everything we thought he'd be, Wise gets wiser, Jamie Collins makes us wish he never left while Stephon Gilmore leads the best secondary in the NFL back to the Super Bowl and a shutout win.
They Still Call It Football
Could the Patriots' kicking game actually improve in 2019? Rookie punter Jake Bailey is an early favorite to unseat veteran Ryan Allen, one of the unsung heroes of SB53.
Why?
Chicks dig the long ball.
And Bill Belichick (see what I did there? Chicks? Beli-chick? Okay. Moving on...) digs hang time.
I won't lie. While I'd love to see the Pats gain an extra 5+ yards of field position on punts, a rookie punter is a scenario fraught with misadventure. An ill-timed shank could prove to be a game-changer in the worst sense of that hyphenate. Allen's consistency and accuracy should not be ignored, nor should his work as holder for Gostkowski on PAT and FGA.
Still, we can't ignore the economics in play. New England saves $1.4MM in precious cap space by releasing Allen, who carries just $100,000 in dead money. Bailey's contract guarantees a payout of $290,800 per Over The Cap. I'm not that good at math but those are numbers even I can work with, so let me be the first to say...
Thanks Ryan. We'll always have SB53.
Best Case Scenario: Bailey nets 40+ yards per punt with 5 or fewer touchbacks and 20+ fair catches. And only botches one XPA hold.
Complimentary Football
Opposing defenses will need to pick their poison when game-planning for the 2019 Patriots offense.
Tom Brady will miss Gronk, sure, but the argument could be made that they'll miss his blocking more than his productivity in the passing game. It may be a stretch to see rookie WR N'Keal Harry putting up 47 catches, 682 yards, and 3 TDs but those numbers hardly look to be out of reach for a talent drafted in the 1st round. Demaryius Thomas and Josh Gordon are obvious question marks but Julian Edelman and Philip Dorsett return and it probably goes without saying but we've seen Brady do more with a lot less.
The already loaded running back group of Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead working with pile-driving fullback James Develin added rookie Damien Harris and brought back ST/RB stalwart Brandon Bolden. Things are a bit unsettled at the tackle position but there seems to be a plethora of block-first tight ends on the 90-man roster.
I think the first option for opposing defenses will be to stack the box to shut down the Patriots running game. Their second option will be to put six defensive backs on the field after Brady burns their linebackers and safeties with play action.
I've started reading pieces that dismiss the notion that Belichick intends to take football back to the 80s with a run first offense and ruin millennial football with a weekly offering of 20-3 games set to Bon Jovi's greatest hits. It may be wishful thinking on my part but I'm not so sure. Belichick is the master of market efficiencies in football.
I get it.
Tom Brady.
I've always been big on the philosophy of putting the ball in your best player's hands as often as possible but...
This just makes too much sense to me.
First, the Patriots will be running the ball against defenses designed to stop the innovative passing games of those millennial offenses; rosters built to put six defensive backs, coverage linebackers on the field, and smaller, faster defensive linemen on the field. The nickel has become the base defense for most NFL franchises.
Second, sustaining control of the football keeps those fast break offenses off the field - and keeps your defense fresh when they have to be on the field. The first half of the divisional playoff game against the Chargers is the blueprint. The seven minute drive was the hallmark of the 2003-04 Patriots.
Everything old is new again. These things tend to run in cycles and nobody understands the history of football better than Bill Belichick.
Picture this: The Patriots line up in a straight-T formation, with N'Keal Harry at one of the tight end positions and Julian Edelman at one of the halfback positions. What do they run? Power sweep? Halfback option pass? Play action? Do they shift out of the T into a four wide spread formation, creating a mismatch that Brady identifies pre-snap? Please make this happen Josh McDaniels!
Best Case Scenario: The Patriots finish Top 2 in rushing with 2500+ yards on the ground, N'Keal Harry finishes Top 3 in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting and Josh Gordon catches the game-winning TD in Super Bowl 54.
The Next One
Do you have a friend who's a Jets' fan? The next time you see him, casually mention that you're starting to wonder if Brady might actually play until he's 50.
Enjoy that ride.
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