Dependencies

I wouldn't call it luck, really, but when it comes to success in the NFL - as in life itself - it depends; it depends on the things that do happen and it depends on the things that don't.

For every best case scenario, there's a worst case scenario. And several less than best scenarios in between.

But let's try to keep this positive, shall we?

So, what are the key dependencies for the New England Patriots to make it back to (and win) the Super Bowl?

N'Keal Harry Contends For OROY

Granted, this is asking a lot from the Patriots 1st round pick. And I'm probably overstating the dependency. After all, 50/600/5 would be impressive in context (a rookie WR in New England's complex and egalitarian offensive system) but probably wouldn't garner much attention from pigskin pundits and bobbleheads outside of Foxborough. Why not dream big? Something like 75/1000/8? A far more Patriots-like storyline for Harry would be 40/500/4 in the regular season with a superstar is born breakout postseason. That would be more than enough.

Jamie Collins Earns Best Supporting Actor In His Second Act With New England

Collins has no doubt lost some of his athleticism after seven years of NFL wear and tear but the real question is, has he gotten smarter? Put another way (you may be familiar with): Will he do his job? Some pigskin pundits and bobbleheads have dismissed the Patrick Chung comp (another player who disappointed in his first stint with the Pats) but I would not be surprised to see a changed Jamie Collins in his return to New England. Okay, I'd be a little surprised but perhaps Collins will benefit from lower expectations. Best case scenario? New England has two Kyle Van Noy's as Collins becomes yet another situational chess piece for the Patriots defense. If so, the defense that dominated the Rams in SB53 gets even better in 2019.

Sony Michel's Knee Is Still Under Warranty

Count me as one who thinks Sony Michel's playoff run all by itself was worth that 1st round draft pick. Do I want more? Of course! A "second year leap?" Yes, please! Just for fun, I took a look at projecting Michel's 3-game playoff run over a full 16-game season: 379/1792/32. Yes, those are insane numbers but that's just how good peak Sony Michel is. If he can stay on the field for 14 regular season games and be healthy for the playoffs, I'll assume some good things will happen for the Patriots' offense.

Chase Winovich Doesn't Just Look Like Clay Matthews

Stretching the definition of dependency here as Winovich might well have a red shirt/special teams rookie season in Foxborough, with Michael Bennett and Jamie Collins both likely to log significant snaps at the Edge/OLB spot, Van Noy and Dont'a Hightower able to flex outside, and yes, I'm still holding out hope for Derek Rivers to provide some production from defensive end. Having said that, Winovich's motor, upside, and hair are all intriguing. If Winovich is playing meaningful snaps in games 9-16 (and it isn't because of an injury to Bennett or Collins), the Patriots will dominate on defense and finish the season leading the NFL in turnover differential.

Isaiah Wynn Was Worth That First Round Pick

Wynn playing and playing well at left tackle may be the single biggest dependency for a 7th Patriots Super Bowl win. The overall situation at tackle (Wynn returning from the season ending Achilles injury, rookie Yodny Cajuste also post-surgery, and veteran Marcus Cannon's injury history) certainly bears watching, my irrational man-crush on Cole Croston notwithstanding. Wynn playing up to his draft status/SEC pedigree would go a long way toward booking reservations for Miami.

The Josh Gordon Story Has A Happy Ending

Okay, I'm definitely cheating here in calling Josh Gordon's possible return from his own personal Azkaban a dependency. Can the Patriots win with a WR group of Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, N'Keal Harry, and whoever is keeping the bench warm for Demaryius Thomas' return from PUP? With Tom Brady at quarterback, yes, of course. It helps having James White and Rex Burkhead in the backfield, too. We've seen what Gordon brings to the table, though, and the clear connection and trust Brady has with Flash. Obviously, the Patriots won the Super Bowl without Gordon but this season they will need to do it without Gronk.

The Patriots Find Someone To Play Tight End

New England has an aging, almost retired, coming off a PED suspension option (Ben Watson), three guys vying for a spot on the practice squad (Ryan Izzo, Andrew Beck, Stephen Anderson) and Matt LaCosse listed as TE on the current roster. Pigskin pundits and bobbleheads continue to project a training camp trade (Cameron Brate? Tyler Higbee?) that also fails to inspire. Who would've thought we'd miss Dwayne Allen! Maybe LaCosse will turn out to be one of those hidden gems other teams couldn't figure out how to use (Rob Ninkovich, Wes Welker, Kyle Van Noy, et al.) that blossomed in Foxborough. If so, and if Watson can produce as a pass catching option out of 2TE sets, the Patriots offense will give Tom Brady a full set of options in pre-snap reads.

New England Patriots: Endgame

Can all of these dependencies resolve in New England's favor in 2019? Probably not. Luck is just a small data sample; it tends to regress to the mean over time. So, there will be some good, and some bad. As for the bad, well, Bill Belichick and the Patriots eat adversity for breakfast. As for the good, if things do break in New England's favor, I'll see you in Miami.